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NAVY

Navy 17 at Army 10

ARMY
2014 · Week 16 · Dec 13, 2014 · M&T Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:05 · Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Pregame prior−24.7Home team on offense+2.4Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:18: Jamir Tillman 9 Yd pass from Keenan Reynolds (Austin Grebe Kick) — NAVY win probability +14.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:40: Geoffrey Whiteside run for 5 yds to the Army 45 — NAVY win probability +6.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:07: Keenan Reynolds 1 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick) — NAVY win probability +14.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 1:51: Daniel Grochowski 52 Yd Field Goal — ARMY win probability +9.2 pts (now 15%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:45: Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line — NAVY win probability +7.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:32ARMY 4th & 9 at ARMY 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:36NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:43NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:00ARMY 4th & 7 at ARMY 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:56NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:13ARMY 4th & 14 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:05NAVY 4th & 1 at ARMY 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    63.5%−2.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    63.9%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:14NAVY 4th & 16 at ARMY 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    60.9%−1.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:11ARMY 4th & 1 at NAVY 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    44.1%−2.0
    56% to make
    Punt
    42.2%−3.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:43NAVY 4th & 14 at ARMY 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−2.6
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−7.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:56ARMY 4th & 2 at NAVY 31, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.2%−2.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−4.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:51ARMY 4th & 11 at NAVY 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.2%
    47% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:36ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:18NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:07NAVY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARMYDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 3:1818% → 19%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
17.5%
Larry Dixon run for 4 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+3
17.8%
Larry Dixon run for 3 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+4
18.1%
Trenton Turrentine run for 4 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
18.6%
Angel Santiago run for no gain to the Army 34Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
18.7%
Larry Dixon run for 6 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
19.1%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to Joe WalkerSimilar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 4
OWN 40
-5
19.0%
ARMY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Army 35Similar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
19.0%
Alex Tardieu punt for 43 yds, fair catch by DeBrandon Sanders at the Navy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3981% → 78%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
19.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+2
19.3%
Noah Copeland run for 2 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 4
OWN 28
-2
19.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 6
OWN 26
+7
21.6%
Xavier Moss 7 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Daniel Grochowski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4779% → 77%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
21.4%
Noah Copeland run for 3 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+1
21.8%
Noah Copeland run for 1 yd to the Navy 42Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+4
22.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+6
22.8%
Pablo Beltran punt for 44 yds , Edgar Poe returns for 6 yds to the Army 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3523% → 24%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
23.2%
Terry Baggett run for 4 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 6
OWN 20
-1
23.8%
Angel Santiago run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 19Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 7
OWN 19
0
24.0%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to Joe Walker, broken up by Chris JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
24.0%
Alex Tardieu punt for 51 yds, downed at the Navy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5976% → 73%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
24.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the Navy 30Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
25.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the Navy 30Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+3
26.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Ryan Williams-Jenkins for 3 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+12
26.7%
Pablo Beltran punt for 52 yds , Edgar Poe returns for 12 yds to the Army 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 4:1227% → 30%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
27.0%
Joe Walker run for 4 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+2
27.6%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+5
27.4%
Larry Dixon run for 5 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
28.6%
Larry Dixon run for 3 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+13
29.4%
Angel Santiago run for 13 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
30.4%
Angel Santiago run for 3 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+3
31.1%
Raymond Maples run for 3 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 40
-10
30.8%
Angel Santiago sacked by Jordan Drake for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 14
50
0
29.9%
Alex Tardieu punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7PUNT
14 plays · 34 yds · 5:4670% → 62%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
30.5%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+5
30.9%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+10
31.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 10 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
31.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Navy 40Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
31.8%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Noah CopelandSimilar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+10
32.4%
Chris Swain run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
50
+1
31.1%
Chris Swain run for 1 yd to the Army 49Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+5
31.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+3
32.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q2 10:05
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
33.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
33.1%
Noah Copeland run for no gain to the Army 39Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-6
34.0%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for a loss of 6 yards to the Army 45Similar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 16
OPP 45
0
36.5%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 16
OPP 45
0
38.0%
Pablo Beltran punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8DOWNS
11 plays · 50 yds · 5:5438% → 47%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
38.2%
Angel Santiago run for 3 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
39.2%
Trenton Turrentine run for 1 yd to the Army 24Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+8
38.8%
Larry Dixon run for 8 yds to the Army 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
41.1%
Angel Santiago run for 8 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+3
43.4%
Raymond Maples run for 3 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
43.6%
Joe Walker run for 18 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
45.2%
Angel Santiago run for 4 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+4
46.0%
Larry Dixon run for 4 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+1
46.1%
Angel Santiago run for 1 yd to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 2:11
4TH & 1
OPP 30
0
47.0%
Angel Santiago run for no gain to the Navy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 1:4255% → 72%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+39
45.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 39 yds to the Army 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
40.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 8
OPP 29
-5
41.1%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (Bradyn Heap) to the Army 34Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+12
43.0%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Ryan Williams-Jenkins for 12 yds to the Army 22Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+10
43.5%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 10 yds to the Army 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
40.7%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Army 9Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
27.6%
Jamir Tillman 9 Yd pass from Keenan Reynolds (Austin Grebe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10END OF HALF
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0637% → 38%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
36.8%
Terry Baggett run for 13 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
37.8%
Kelvin White pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11FG
11 plays · 22 yds · 4:5770% → 69%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
50
+5
29.6%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 5 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+3
29.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+5
30.2%
Noah Copeland run for 5 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
30.7%
Dishan Romine run for 6 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+7
29.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 7 yds to the Army 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
30.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 25Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+8
30.8%
Noah Copeland run for 8 yds to the Army 17Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 3
OPP 17
-5
31.9%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (Jamir Tillman) to the Army 22Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 8
OPP 22
-6
32.7%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Andrew King for a loss of 6 yards to the Army 28Similar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 14
OPP 28
+45
31.3%
Austin Grebe 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12MISSED FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 4:1932% → 35%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
31.7%
Larry Dixon run for 4 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+26
32.1%
Larry Dixon run for 26 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
35.7%
A.J. Schurr run for 9 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+4
36.6%
Raymond Maples run for 4 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
37.1%
A.J. Schurr run for 2 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+3
37.6%
Raymond Maples run for 3 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+3
37.5%
Terry Baggett run for 3 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 4:56
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+49
35.2%
Daniel Grochowski 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13TD
16 plays · 69 yds · 7:3870% → 86%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
30.5%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+17
31.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 17 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
28.9%
Noah Copeland run for no gain to the Navy 47Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
29.2%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Brandon Colon for 9 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+4
28.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
29.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+5
29.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Brendan Dudeck for 5 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+4
29.2%
Noah Copeland run for 4 yds to the Army 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
27.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the Army 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+4
28.0%
Noah Copeland run for 4 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+4
29.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Army 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
28.2%
Chris Swain run for 11 yds to the Army 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
29.2%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Army 2Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
29.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Army 1Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.5%
Keenan Reynolds 1 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14FUMBLE
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:3316% → 15%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
15.8%
A.J. Schurr run for 6 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+7
16.3%
Larry Dixon run for 7 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
16.8%
Larry Dixon run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
50
+4
15.4%
A.J. Schurr run for 4 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+4
15.6%
Larry Dixon run for 4 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+4
16.0%
Larry Dixon run for 4 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
15.6%
Terry Baggett run for no gain to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
14.6%
A.J. Schurr run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 40 A.J. Schurr fumbled, forced by Paul Quessenberry, recovered by Navy Will Anthony , return for no gain to the Navy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15FUMBLE
8 plays · 39 yds · 4:1389% → 92%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
11.0%
Noah Copeland run for no gain to the Navy 40Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-8
10.9%
Noah Copeland run for 2 yds to the Navy 42 NAVY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 18
OWN 32
+16
11.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 16 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+19
9.4%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 19 yds to the Army 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
8.7%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+6
8.4%
Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the Army 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
7.9%
Noah Copeland run for 1 yd to the Army 21Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
7.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the Army 21 Keenan Reynolds fumbled, recovered by Army Joe DrummondSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 1:409% → 15%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
8.9%
Kelvin White pass complete to Joe Walker for 17 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
8.9%
A.J. Schurr run for 10 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
7.5%
A.J. Schurr sacked by Will Anthony for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 47Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 11
OWN 47
0
7.2%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to Edgar PoeSimilar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+20
6.9%
A.J. Schurr pass complete to Larry Dixon for 20 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
10.0%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to Xavier MossSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
9.6%
A.J. Schurr run for 5 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 28
-6
7.8%
A.J. Schurr sacked by Chris Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 11
OPP 34
+52
14.6%
Daniel Grochowski 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17END OF GAME
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:4595% → 96%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
4.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 12
50
+19
5.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 19 yds to the Army 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 33Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 33
-3
4.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:07
Keenan Reynolds 1 Yd Run (Austin Grebe Kick)
-14.9
TD · Q2 0:18
Jamir Tillman 9 Yd pass from Keenan Reynolds (Austin Grebe Kick)
-14.8
FG · Q4 1:51
Daniel Grochowski 52 Yd Field Goal
+9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com