Navy

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0716th
  Defense+0.1831st
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense36.5%9th
  Defense42.5%48th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1919th
  Defense+1.3038th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1354th
  Defense+0.1050th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense−0.221st
  Defense+0.2729th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense42.4%9th
  Defense46.2%63rd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense22.5%2nd
  Defense34.7%19th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.8826th
  Defense2.6990th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.3%67th
  Defense22.4%93rd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.0%82nd
  Defense16.1%38th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Navy allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   MRSH
2. L
   AF
3. L
   HOU
4. W
   UCF
5. L
   SMU
6. L
   MEM
7. L
   CIN
8. W
   TLSA
9. L
   ND
10. L
    ECU
11. W
    TEM
12. W
    ARMY

Bars above the line: better than expected for Navy.

Players, 2021

1. Tai LavataiQB204 plays · +0.123 pts/play · 133rd of 219 QBs
   0.47WAR−0.06 to 1.01
2. Isaac RuossFB146 plays · +0.155 pts/play · 91st of 387 RBs
   0.42WAR0.31 to 0.55
3. Carlinos AcieRB57 plays · +0.272 pts/play · 160th of 387 RBs
   0.29WAR0.22 to 0.36
4. James Harris IIFB85 plays · +0.160 pts/play · 178th of 387 RBs
   0.25WAR0.18 to 0.33
5. Chance WarrenRB47 plays · +0.185 pts/play · 238th of 387 RBs
   0.16WAR0.12 to 0.20
6. Xavier ArlineQB65 plays · +0.071 pts/play · 198th of 219 QBs
   0.09WAR−0.07 to 0.26
7. Bijan NicholsPK18 plays · +0.233 pts/play · 55th of 128 kickers
   0.08WAR0.03 to 0.12
8. Mychal CooperWR17 plays · +0.189 pts/play · 349th of 474 WRs
   0.06WAR0.04 to 0.08

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Navy's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  128128127th of 130Roster talent: 128, 127th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  127127116th of 130Recruiting: 127, 116th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  33%33%122nd of 128Returning production: 33%, 122nd of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −8.5−8.5102nd of 130SP+ rating: −8.5, 102nd of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Navy's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.26 of the 0.31 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at ARMYQ4 2:56 4th & 6 at ARMY 20, down 4Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−14.8 pts
2. at ARMYQ2 8:29 4th & 3 at ARMY 8, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−5.5 pts
3. at ARMYQ2 13:11 4th & 4 at ARMY 21, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.4 pts
4. at TLSAQ4 4:14 4th & 2 at TLSA 29, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
5. vs SMUQ3 0:23 4th & 5 at SMU 33, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
6. at TEMQ2 5:17 4th & 4 at TEM 44, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
7. vs AFQ4 5:23 4th & 11 at AF 11, down 20Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.8 pts
8. at MEMQ4 14:55 4th & 7 at NAVY 23, down 18Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

44th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Navy's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   MRSH
2. L

   AF
3. L

   HOU
4. W

   UCF
5. L

   SMU
6. L

   MEM
7. L

   CIN
8. W

   TLSA
9. L

   ND
10. L

    ECU
11. W

    TEM
12. W

    ARMY

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Navy's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.07
• Possession & field position−0.04
• Clock−0.01
• Timeouts+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+1.08

Game by game

• MRSHL 7-49 vs MRSH41% → 0%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −41: Scoreboard −46, Possession & field position +1
• AFL 3-23 vs AF29% → 1%Before kickoff −21 · On the field −27: Scoreboard −38, Clock −1
• HOUL 20-28 at HOU8% → 4%Before kickoff −42 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −12, Possession & field position −1
• UCFW 34-30 vs UCF13% → 96%Before kickoff −37 · On the field +82: Scoreboard +41, Timeouts +3
• SMUL 24-31 vs SMU16% → 7%Before kickoff −34 · On the field −9: Scoreboard −27, Possession & field position −1
• MEML 17-35 at MEM20% → 1%Before kickoff −30 · On the field −19: Scoreboard −23, Timeouts −1
• CINL 20-27 vs CIN3% → 4%Before kickoff −47 · On the field +1: Scoreboard −12, Clock −1
• TLSAW 20-17 at TLSA21% → 93%Before kickoff −29 · On the field +72: Scoreboard +54, Clock +3
• NDL 6-34 at ND7% → 0%Before kickoff −43 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −9
• ECUL 35-38 vs ECU32% → 6%Before kickoff −18 · On the field −27: Scoreboard −40, Clock −2
• TEMW 38-14 at TEM80% → 100%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +27, Clock +1
• ARMYW 17-13 at ARMY60% → 17%Before kickoff +10 · On the field −44: Scoreboard −23, Clock −1

Points of win probability, from Navy's side.

Closest call

NAVY 27-24 TULN (2020) - Navy dropped to a 3.6% win probability before pulling it out.