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NAVY

Navy 20 at Houston 28

HOU
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:19 · Isaac Ruoss run for 5 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Pregame prior+9.5Home team on offense+18.1Score differential+6.1Garbage-time factor+3.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:52: Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +16.4 pts (now 38%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. MISSED FG · Q3 9:45: Dalton Witherspoon 32 yd FG MISSED — NAVY win probability +10.2 pts (now 44%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:16: Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +13.6 pts (now 71%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q4 14:53: Clayton Tune pass complete to Marcus Jones for 47 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +21.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:08: Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +9.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6NAVY made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 13:57HOU 4th & 1 at NAVY 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.5%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:10HOU 4th & 1 at NAVY 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    87.9%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    87.5%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:57NAVY 4th & 19 at NAVY 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:38HOU 4th & 11 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:35NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.2%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:53NAVY 4th & 5 at HOU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−3.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:20HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:20NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.2%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:45HOU 4th & 4 at NAVY 15, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.1%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−7.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:39NAVY 4th & 12 at NAVY 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−3.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:48NAVY 4th & 8 at NAVY 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−2.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:19NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.5%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:19NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.2%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:12NAVY 4th & 9 at HOU 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−2.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:02HOU 4th & 7 at midfield, up 8
    Close callPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:16NAVY 4th & 18 at NAVY 17, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%−0.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:57NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:52NAVY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:16HOU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:53HOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:08HOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1TD
3 plays · 76 yds · 0:588% → 9%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
91.9%
Xavier Arline run for 5 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+15
91.9%
HOUSTON Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle on GREEN, Art enforced (15 Yards) to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
91.5%
Xavier Arline run for 40 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2DOWNS
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:4792% → 90%
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.5%
Alton McCaskill run for 6 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+34
91.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 34 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
91.6%
Alton McCaskill run for 4 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
91.6%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+5
91.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marcus Jones for 5 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 13:57
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
91.5%
Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
91.6%
Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
91.6%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+6
91.6%
Alton McCaskill run for 6 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 1
OPP 15
0
90.1%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the Navy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 4:1310% → 12%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
89.9%
Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+6
89.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 6 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+3
89.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
89.9%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (Kip Frankland) to the Navy 22Similar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+1
89.9%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Navy 23Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 14
OWN 23
-2
90.0%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 21 fumbled, recovered by Navy Xavier ArlineSimilar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 16
OWN 21
-3
90.0%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 18Similar
Q1 5:57
4TH & 19
OWN 18
0
88.0%
Riley Riethman punt for 47 yds , Marcus Jones returns for no gain to the Houst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:1988% → 86%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
87.9%
Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
88.1%
Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+10
88.0%
Alton McCaskill run for 10 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
88.3%
Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 11
50
0
88.1%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 11
50
0
88.0%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:38
4TH & 11
50
0
86.4%
Laine Wilkins punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0314% → 12%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
86.4%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Navy 19Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 9
OWN 19
-1
86.4%
Carlinos Acie run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 18Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+4
86.6%
James Harris II run for 4 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 6
OWN 22
+73
87.9%
Riley Riethman punt for 51 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 73 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6FG
17 plays · 62 yds · 8:4213% → 19%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.4%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
87.3%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
86.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
86.6%
Carlinos Acie run for 5 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
86.2%
James Harris II run for 3 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
86.3%
Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Navy 44Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+1
86.6%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
86.2%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 19 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
86.0%
Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for 5 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+2
85.8%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+11
86.0%
Isaac Ruoss run for 11 yds to the Houst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
85.8%
Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Houst 18Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+4
82.1%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Houst 14Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+1
81.7%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Houst 13Similar
Q2 7:53
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+30
81.0%
Bijan Nichols 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3382% → 81%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.3%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
82.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 21Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+12
81.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Mulbah Car for 12 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
81.0%
Laine Wilkins punt for 56 yds, downed at the Navy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
11 plays · 89 yds · 5:2819% → 38%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
81.2%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Navy 12Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+12
81.3%
Xavier Arline run for 12 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
80.7%
James Harris II run for 8 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+6
80.2%
Isaac Ruoss run for 6 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
79.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
79.7%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+4
79.8%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+13
80.4%
James Harris II run for 13 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+37
79.1%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 37 yds to the Houst 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
78.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Houst 1Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.5%
Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9END OF HALF
10 plays · 56 yds · 0:4066% → 66%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
65.8%
Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the Houst 24Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+17
65.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 17 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
65.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 7 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+8
65.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 8 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
65.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 16 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
67.1%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
66.2%
Clayton Tune run for 7 yds to the Navy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10MISSED FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 5:1064% → 56%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
63.8%
Alton McCaskill run for 9 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+7
64.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 7 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
64.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 4 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+1
64.9%
Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the Houst 38Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+20
64.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 20 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
66.4%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+6
66.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marcus Jones for 6 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
67.6%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 11 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
67.6%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+7
67.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 7 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 14
-1
66.3%
Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 15Similar
Q3 9:45
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+32
56.1%
Dalton Witherspoon 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 2:0644% → 45%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
56.1%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-1
56.4%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 21Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
57.4%
Xavier Arline sacked by Derek Parish for 0 yards to the Navy 18Similar
Q3 7:39
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+9
55.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 34 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 9 yds to the Navy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 43 yds · 4:2355% → 71%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
55.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Seth Green for 4 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+9
55.5%
Alton McCaskill run for 9 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
57.1%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 5 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 5
OPP 25
-5
57.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Patrick Paul) to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-10
57.0%
TUNE, Clayton pass up the middle complete for 10 yards to CARTER, KeSean caught at the NAV24 and advanced to the NAV20 (MARSHALL, John). PENALTY HOU Holding on JENKINS, Tank enforced 10 yards from the NAV30 to the NAV40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 20
OPP 40
+8
54.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 8 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+15
53.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 15 yds to the Navy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
57.0%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 8 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+7
57.0%
TUNE, Clayton pass to the left incomplete intended for TRAHAN, Christian thrown to the NAV0. PENALTY NAV Pass Interference on GLENN, Jamal enforced at the spot of the foul for 7 yards to the NAV2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
70.7%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2839% → 38%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
61.2%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
60.8%
Xavier Arline pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-1
62.4%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 27Similar
Q3 1:48
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
62.5%
Riley Riethman punt for 54 yds, downed at the Houst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 1:5562% → 83%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
62.4%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 3 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+3
62.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 3 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+10
61.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 10 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
63.1%
Alton McCaskill run for 4 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
66.0%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+14
61.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 14 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
82.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marcus Jones for 47 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15FUMBLE
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.8%
run for 1 yd to the Navy 26 fumbled, recovered by Houst Malik RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:3983% → 93%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
83.3%
Clayton Tune sacked by Diego Fagot for 0 yards to the Navy 31Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 15
OPP 31
+10
82.0%
Alton McCaskill run for 10 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+10
82.2%
TUNE, Clayton pass up the middle incomplete intended for TRAHAN, Christian thrown to the NAV11. PENALTY NAV Holding on HODGES, Johnny enforced 10 yards from the NAV21 to the NAV11 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
83.3%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 12Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+11
83.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 11 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.5%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 5:569% → 10%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.7%
James Harris II run for 5 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
89.7%
James Harris II run for 3 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
91.7%
James Harris II run for 1 yd to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
93.2%
Isaac Ruoss run for 5 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
92.2%
Xavier Arline pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
92.7%
Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for 6 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+3
92.3%
Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+5
92.7%
James Harris II run for 5 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+27
91.6%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 27 yds to the Houst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
90.7%
James Harris II run for 1 yd to the Houst 19Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
90.7%
Xavier Arline pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
91.9%
Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Houst 19Similar
Q4 6:12
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+36
89.9%
Bijan Nichols 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:0693% → 96%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
93.3%
Alton McCaskill run for 5 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+11
93.5%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 11 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
93.7%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 10 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
94.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 6 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
94.3%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
96.1%
Clayton Tune sacked by Donald Berniardjr for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:02
4TH & 7
50
0
95.7%
Laine Wilkins punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:467% → 4%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.4%
Chance Warren run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
92.9%
Maasai Maynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
94.9%
Maasai Maynor sacked by Atlias Bell for 0 yards to the Navy 17Similar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+15
96.4%
Maasai Maynor pass complete to Mark Walker for 15 yds to the Navy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:53
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marcus Jones for 47 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
+21.5
TD · Q2 0:52
Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)
-16.4
TD · Q3 3:16
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
+13.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com