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MRSH

Marshall 49 at Navy 7

NAVY
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:12 · Bijan Nichols 41 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by TJ Johnson Eli Neal return for 3 yds to the Marsh 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Home team on offense−6.2Score differential−2.9Garbage-time factor−1.3Pregame prior−6.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:46: Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds for a TD (Andrew Sanders KICK) — MRSH win probability +3.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:24: Rasheen Ali run for 4 yds for a TD (Andrew Sanders KICK) — MRSH win probability +10.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:56: Sheldon Evans run for 9 yds for a TD (Andrew Sanders KICK) — MRSH win probability +6.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:04: Xavier Arline run for 1 yd for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +4.1 pts (now 5%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:02: Rasheen Ali run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Sanders KICK) — MRSH win probability +2.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 12 of 12MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:38NAVY 4th & 4 at MRSH 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    43.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:46NAVY 4th & 3 at MRSH 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    39.8%−1.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:12NAVY 4th & 20 at MRSH 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−1.5
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−3.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:32NAVY 4th & 14 at NAVY 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:24NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.0%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:24NAVY 4th & 11 at NAVY 36, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:43MRSH 4th & 22 at MRSH 20, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−1.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:41NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 44, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:56MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 16, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:04NAVY 4th & 2 at MRSH 17, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    3.1%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:02NAVY 4th & 18 at NAVY 10, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:31NAVY 4th & 19 at NAVY 16, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:16MRSH 4th & 24 at MRSH 35, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:01NAVY 4th & 5 at MRSH 29, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 0 of 1MRSH made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:23MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:46MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:24MRSH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:56MRSH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:04NAVY Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.8%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:02MRSH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:31MRSH Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:01MRSH Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3759% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+47
41.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Talik Keaton for 47 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
41.1%
Sheldon Evans run for 4 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+4
41.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 4 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+5
41.1%
Sheldon Evans run for 5 yds to the Navy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
41.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 4 yds to the Navy 11Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+7
41.1%
Grant Wells run for 7 yds to the Navy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
41.1%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the Navy 2Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
41.1%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
40.7%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2DOWNS
13 plays · 26 yds · 3:4541% → 40%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
40.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+7
41.0%
Chance Warren run for 7 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
41.0%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Jake Cossavella) to the Navy 32Similar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 15
OWN 32
-4
40.9%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Jayshaun Coffman for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 28Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 19
OWN 28
+8
40.9%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 8 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+11
40.8%
Tai Lavatai run for 11 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
41.2%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Marsh 49Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+2
41.3%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
41.2%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Chance Warren, broken up by Sam BurtonSimilar
Q1 8:38
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
40.2%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Mychal CooperSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:4660% → 64%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
40.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Sheldon Evans for 7 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+2
39.9%
Sheldon Evans run for 2 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
40.0%
Grant Wells run for 2 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
40.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 11 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+28
40.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Talik Keaton for 28 yds to the Navy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
36.2%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds for a TD (Andrew Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4MISSED FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 6:3438% → 34%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
37.6%
Isaac Ruoss run for 6 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+2
37.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+4
37.7%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
38.0%
Daniel Jones run for 12 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
38.2%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+4
38.2%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Marsh 43Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+1
38.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Marsh 42Similar
Q1 6:46
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+28
38.0%
Jayden Umbarger run for 28 yds to the Marsh 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
38.4%
Tyger Goslin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 15Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 11
OPP 15
-3
38.4%
Tai Lavatai sacked by TJ Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 18Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 14
OPP 18
-6
38.0%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Jamare Edwards and Eli Neal for a loss of 6 yards to the Marsh 24Similar
Q1 0:12
4TH & 20
OPP 24
+41
34.1%
Bijan Nichols 41 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by TJ Johnson Eli Neal return for 3 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5FUMBLE
8 plays · 41 yds · 0:1268% → 68%
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
32.5%
MARSHALL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Marsh 36Similar
Q1 0:12
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+1
33.1%
Grant Wells run for 1 yd to the Marsh 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+20
33.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 20 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
32.2%
Rasheen Ali run for 9 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+2
32.0%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
32.1%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Corey Gammage, broken up by Diego FagotSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+10
32.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Sheldon Evans for 10 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
32.0%
Sheldon Evans run for no gain to the Navy 21 Sheldon Evans fumbled, forced by Nicholas Straw, recovered by Navy Kevin BrennanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
32.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 16 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
33.4%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
33.7%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Carlinos AcieSimilar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-7
33.3%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Brian Cavicante for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 33Similar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
32.5%
Duke Pa'ane punt blocked by Naquan Renalds blocked by Naquan RenaldsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:1071% → 81%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
29.3%
MARSHALL Penalty, false start (Logan Osburn) to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 15
OPP 30
0
29.4%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+12
29.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 12 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+2
29.6%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the Navy 14 Rasheen Ali fumbled, forced by Mitchell West, recovered by Marsh Rasheen Ali for a 1ST down , return for no gain to the Navy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
29.3%
Rasheen Ali run for 10 yds to the Navy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
18.8%
Rasheen Ali run for 4 yds for a TD (Andrew Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 11 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
22.8%
NAVY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Navy 20Similar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
22.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
22.7%
Isaac Ruoss run for 7 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
23.0%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
23.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
23.4%
Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 36Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
22.9%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Mychal CooperSimilar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+5
22.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 5 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 6
OWN 41
-5
23.2%
NAVY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Navy 36Similar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 11
OWN 36
+8
22.8%
Duke Pa'ane punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Marsh 32 , Talik Keaton returns for 8 yds to the Marsh 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
17.2%
Sheldon Evans run for 1 yd to the Marsh 33Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-5
17.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Sheldon Evans for a loss of 5 yards to the Marsh 28Similar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 14
OWN 28
-8
17.8%
Grant Wells sacked by Michael McMorris for a loss of 8 yards to the Marsh 20 Grant Wells fumbled, recovered by Marsh Xavier Gaines , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 6:43
4TH & 22
OWN 20
0
18.0%
Robert Lefevre punt for 41 yds, downed at the Navy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
20.1%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+1
20.2%
Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Navy 42Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+2
20.0%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q2 4:41
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+44
19.9%
Duke Pa'ane punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the NAVY 24 MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (Eli Neal) to the Marsh 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
14.3%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Xavier GainesSimilar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
14.4%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Corey GammageSimilar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+4
15.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Talik Keaton for 4 yds to the Marsh 16Similar
Q2 2:56
4TH & 6
OWN 16
+4
15.1%
Robert Lefevre punt for 54 yds , Chance Warren returns for 4 yds to the Navy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12END OF HALF
10 plays · 60 yds · 1:5618% → 19%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
17.5%
Daniel Jones run for 7 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+2
18.4%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+19
18.3%
Xavier Arline run for 19 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
19.0%
Carlinos Acie run for 3 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+5
19.4%
Xavier Arline run for 5 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+3
17.8%
Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Marsh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+22
23.8%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 22 yds to the Marsh 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
18.7%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
16.1%
Chance Warren run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+3
15.7%
Chance Warren run for 3 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
15.7%
Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
15.7%
Duke Pa'ane punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the Marsh 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:2689% → 96%
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
11.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 15 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
10.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 20 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+22
10.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 22 yds to the Navy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
10.4%
Rasheen Ali run for 5 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
4.1%
Sheldon Evans run for 9 yds for a TD (Andrew Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15INT
12 plays · 64 yds · 0:004% → 5%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
4.2%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Eli Neal for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 6Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+2
4.0%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 8Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 9
OWN 8
+10
4.0%
Chance Warren run for 10 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
4.3%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+8
4.2%
James Harris II run for 8 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+27
4.3%
James Harris II run for 27 yds to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
4.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Marsh 39Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+4
4.7%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+3
4.8%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Marsh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
5.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Marsh 29Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-15
5.1%
Tai Lavatai pass intercepted Steven Gilmore return for 15 yds to the Marsh 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
2.5%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Devin MillerSimilar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-15
2.6%
Grant Wells pass intercepted Kevin Brennan return for 15 yds to the Marsh 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
3.4%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+1
3.3%
James Harris II run for 1 yd to the Marsh 22Similar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+5
3.2%
Xavier Arline run for 5 yds to the Marsh 17Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+1
3.0%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Marsh 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18INT
5 plays · 60 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
2.2%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Talik Keaton, broken up by Johnny HodgesSimilar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+36
2.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 36 yds Xavier Gaines fumbled, forced by Michael McMorris, recovered by Marsh Xavier Gaines for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
2.0%
Sheldon Evans run for 3 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+16
2.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Talik Keaton for 16 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-7
1.9%
Grant Wells pass intercepted Mbiti Williams Jr. return for 7 yds to the Navy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD
14 plays · 82 yds · 6:202% → 5%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
1.6%
Xavier Arline pass complete to Mark Walker for 4 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+4
1.6%
James Harris II run for 4 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+17
1.7%
Xavier Arline run for 17 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
1.8%
Xavier Arline pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
1.7%
Xavier Arline run for 8 yds to the Marsh 49Similar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+2
1.8%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
1.9%
Chance Warren run for 1 yd to the Marsh 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+16
1.2%
Xavier Arline run for 16 yds to the Marsh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
1.3%
Carlinos Acie run for 6 yds to the Marsh 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+8
1.3%
James Harris II run for 8 yds to the Marsh 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
1.3%
Xavier Arline run for 8 yds to the Marsh 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+3
1.2%
James Harris II run for 3 yds to the Marsh 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
1.2%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the Marsh 1Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.3%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20TD
12 plays · 60 yds · 4:0298% → 100%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
2.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Talik Keaton for 5 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+10
2.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 10 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
2.4%
Rasheen Ali run for 5 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+15
2.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Devin Miller for 15 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
2.4%
Rasheen Ali run for 9 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+3
2.4%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
2.4%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Devin Miller, broken up by Johnny HodgesSimilar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+12
2.4%
Grant Wells run for 12 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
2.3%
Grant Wells run for no gain to the Navy 1Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
2.4%
Rasheen Ali run for no gain to the Navy 1Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.3%
Rasheen Ali run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
0.3%
Xavier Arline sacked by Sam Burton and Brian Cavicante for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 16Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+4
0.3%
Chance Warren run for 4 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 8
OWN 20
-10
0.3%
Xavier Arline sacked by Sam Burton for a loss of 10 yards to the Navy 10Similar
Q4 8:02
4TH & 18
OWN 10
+4
0.3%
Duke Pa'ane punt for 33 yds , Willie Johnson returns for 4 yds to the Navy 14 MARSHALL Penalty, illegal block (Daniel Foster) to the Navy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 0:55100% → 100%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+47
0.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 47 yds to the Navy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
0.2%
Sheldon Evans run for 1 yd to the Navy 1Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Sheldon Evans run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
0.2%
Maasai Maynor sacked by Owen Porter and Eli Neal for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 21Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
0.1%
Maasai Maynor pass incomplete to Chance WarrenSimilar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-5
0.1%
Maasai Maynor sacked by Eli Neal for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 16Similar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+35
0.1%
Duke Pa'ane punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Willie Johnson at the NAVY 49 MARSHALL Penalty, RUN (Sam Burton) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
0.2%
Luke Zban pass incomplete to Jayden HarrisonSimilar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-14
0.2%
Knowledge McDaniel run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (Will Ulmer) to the Marsh 35Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 24
OWN 35
0
0.2%
Luke Zban pass incomplete to Willie Johnson, broken up by Rayuan LaneSimilar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 24
OWN 35
+8
0.2%
Robert Lefevre punt for 48 yds , Chance Warren returns for 8 yds to the Navy 43 NAVY Penalty, RU ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 25INT
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.1%
Daniel Jones run for 6 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
0.1%
Tyger Goslin run for 2 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-20
0.1%
Tyger Goslin pass intercepted Keylin Roach return for 20 yds to the Navy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 26TD
1 play · 30 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
0.1%
Luke Zban pass complete to EJ Horton for 30 yds for a TD (Andrew Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 27END OF GAME
11 plays · 74 yds · 1:560% → 0%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
0.1%
Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for 10 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
0.1%
James Harris II run for 18 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
0.1%
Maasai Maynor pass complete to Tyger Goslin for 18 yds to the Marsh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
0.1%
Maasai Maynor pass incomplete to Jayden UmbargerSimilar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
0.1%
James Harris II run for 5 yds to the Marsh 29Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
0.1%
Maasai Maynor pass incomplete to Isaac Ruoss, broken up by Emmanuel BalogunSimilar
Q4 2:01
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+9
0.1%
Maasai Maynor pass complete to Tyger Goslin for 9 yds to the Marsh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
0.1%
Maasai Maynor pass incomplete to Tyger GoslinSimilar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+14
0.1%
Maasai Maynor run for 14 yds to the Marsh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:24
Rasheen Ali run for 4 yds for a TD (Andrew Sanders KICK)
-10.5
TD · Q3 11:56
Sheldon Evans run for 9 yds for a TD (Andrew Sanders KICK)
-6.4
TD · Q4 12:04
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)
+4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com