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NAVY

Navy 17 at Memphis 35

MEM
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2021 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · Mike Mauai run for 4 yds to the Navy 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:20: James Harris II run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +4.0 pts (now 26%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:00: Calvin Austin III run for 69 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK) — MEM win probability +4.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:30: Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 74 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK) — MEM win probability +6.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:09: Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 21 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +10.0 pts (now 18%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:07: Marquavius Weaver run for 4 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK) — MEM win probability +7.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NAVY made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 8:23NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:26NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:01NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:44MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 46, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    81.6%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:10NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 34, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.1%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:37NAVY 4th & 1 at MEM 22, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%−1.9
    72% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−7.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:55NAVY 4th & 26 at NAVY 9, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−2.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:59MEM 4th & 13 at MEM 44, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:55NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 23, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:57NAVY 4th & 1 at MEM 23, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−1.0
    70% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−4.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:28NAVY 4th & 27 at MEM 38, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.9%
    38% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:48MEM 4th & 14 at MEM 34, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:22NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:09MEM 4th & 8 at NAVY 29, up 18
    Close callWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.8%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:10MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:20NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:00MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:30MEM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:40MEM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:09NAVY Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:07MEM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3580% → 80%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+49
80.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 49 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
79.9%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+6
79.9%
Brandon Thomas run for 6 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+6
79.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 6 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
79.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 6 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+2
79.7%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the Navy 3Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
80.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 3 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
23 plays · 75 yds · 11:4020% → 26%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
80.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
80.0%
Carlinos Acie run for 8 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
79.8%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
79.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for no gain to the Navy 36Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
79.9%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 6 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+3
79.7%
Carlinos Acie run for 3 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 8:23
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+2
79.8%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
79.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 7
50
+4
79.4%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+4
79.3%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
79.2%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+4
79.1%
James Harris II run for 4 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+7
79.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
78.6%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+4
78.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+5
78.9%
Carlinos Acie run for 5 yds to the Memph 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
78.5%
Carlinos Acie run for 6 yds to the Memph 10Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+5
78.5%
James Harris II run for 5 yds to the Memph 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
78.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Memph 3Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
78.3%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Memph 2Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.3%
James Harris II run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3TD
2 plays · 69 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+69
80.2%
Calvin Austin III run for 69 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:1920% → 20%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
79.7%
Isaac Ruoss run for 15 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
79.2%
Isaac Ruoss run for 5 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
78.8%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Mark WalkerSimilar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 5
OWN 48
-1
78.9%
Chance Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 47Similar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
79.9%
Riley Riethman punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the Memph 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5480% → 80%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
80.1%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 18Similar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+7
80.0%
Seth Henigan run for 7 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
80.1%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the Memph 25Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 8
OWN 25
-33
79.6%
Seth Henigan pass intercepted Diego Fagot return for 18 yds to the Memph 43 NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Memph 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6FG
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:5423% → 24%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 0
OPP 25
+14
77.5%
James Harris II run for 1 yd to the Memph 10 James Harris II fumbled, recovered by Navy , return for 14 yds to the Memph 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
77.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Memph 8Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
77.7%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Memph 5Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 0
OPP 5
-15
78.1%
NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Memph 20Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 0
OPP 20
+1
78.2%
Jayden Umbarger run for 1 yd to the Memph 19Similar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 0
OPP 19
+36
76.3%
Bijan Nichols 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7TD
4 plays · 86 yds · 0:3577% → 84%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
76.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 12 yds to the Memph 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
77.1%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Roc TaylorSimilar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+74
83.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 74 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:2117% → 16%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.0%
Chance Warren run for 10 yds to the Navy 35 NAVY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
83.1%
Tai Lavatai sacked by John Tate IV for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 18Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+5
83.4%
Isaac Ruoss run for 5 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+2
83.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
84.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 38 yds , Koby Drake returns for no gain to the Memph 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9TD
13 plays · 63 yds · 4:1284% → 90%
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
84.3%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Roc TaylorSimilar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
84.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 4 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+5
84.6%
Seth Henigan run for 5 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+1
84.3%
Seth Henigan run for 1 yd to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
85.3%
Marquavius Weaver run for 12 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
85.7%
Marquavius Weaver run for 8 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+5
86.0%
Marquavius Weaver run for 5 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
86.7%
Marquavius Weaver run for 1 yd to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+8
86.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 8 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+4
86.4%
Brandon Thomas run for 4 yds to the Navy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
87.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 12 yds to the Navy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.3%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:2410% → 11%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.6%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
89.3%
Isaac Ruoss run for 5 yds to the Navy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:4310% → 18%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.2%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
90.4%
Carlinos Acie run for 7 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
90.0%
James Harris II run for 1 yd to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 13:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
90.3%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
90.1%
James Harris II run for 6 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+11
90.0%
Isaac Ruoss run for 11 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
89.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+2
90.1%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+10
90.4%
Carlinos Acie run for 10 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
91.1%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+1
91.1%
Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Memph 28Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+6
92.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 6 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+1
91.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Memph 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
81.9%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 21 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:4686% → 95%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
86.4%
Brandon Thomas run for 4 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+51
86.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 51 yds to the Navy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
87.6%
Brandon Thomas run for 4 yds to the Navy 13Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+9
87.7%
Marquavius Weaver run for 9 yds to the Navy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.2%
Marquavius Weaver run for 4 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -16 yds · 2:026% → 5%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
93.9%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Maurice White for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 18Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
94.1%
Tyger Goslin run for no gain to the Navy 18Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 17
OWN 18
-9
94.5%
NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (-9 Yards) to the Navy 9Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 26
OWN 9
0
94.7%
Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Navy 9Similar
Q3 3:55
4TH & 26
OWN 9
-2
94.8%
Riley Riethman punt for 42 yds , Koby Drake returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4996% → 95%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
95.7%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Memph 37Similar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+1
95.6%
Seth Henigan run for 1 yd to the Memph 38Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 19
OWN 38
0
95.7%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Roc TaylorSimilar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 19
OWN 38
+6
95.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 6 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q3 1:59
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
95.4%
Joe Doyle punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15MISSED FG
16 plays · 42 yds · 8:195% → 3%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
94.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
95.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Navy 23Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
95.7%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Carlinos Acie for no gain to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+31
95.7%
Chance Warren pass complete to Isaac Ruoss for 16 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
95.4%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Rodney Owens for a loss of 10 yards to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 20
OWN 44
+9
96.2%
Daniel Jones run for 9 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+15
96.0%
Carlinos Acie run for 15 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
95.6%
James Harris II run for 5 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+2
94.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+2
96.3%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q4 10:57
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+2
96.3%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Memph 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-12
96.1%
Xavier Arline sacked by Quindell Johnson for a loss of 12 yards to the Memph 33Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 22
OPP 33
+4
96.4%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 18
OPP 29
-9
96.9%
Jayden Umbarger run for a loss of 9 yards to the Memph 38Similar
Q4 8:28
4TH & 27
OPP 38
+55
97.2%
Bijan Nichols 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2498% → 98%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
98.1%
Kylan Watkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 36Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 12
OWN 36
-2
98.1%
Kylan Watkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 34Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 14
OWN 34
0
98.2%
Asa Martin run for no gain to the Memph 34Similar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 14
OWN 34
+4
98.2%
Joe Doyle punt for 49 yds , Chance Warren returns for 4 yds to the Navy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:162% → 2%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
97.6%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Navy 22Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
97.9%
Xavier Arline pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+4
98.3%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q4 5:22
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
98.4%
Riley Riethman punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 35 yds · 4:5599% → 99%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
98.9%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the Memph 44Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+7
98.9%
Brandon Thomas run for 7 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+3
99.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
99.1%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+12
99.1%
Marquavius Weaver run for 12 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
99.2%
Marquavius Weaver run for 2 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+2
99.3%
Marquavius Weaver run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 6
OPP 27
-5
99.3%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+3
99.3%
Marquavius Weaver run for 3 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+7
99.2%
Marquavius Weaver run for 7 yds to the Navy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19END OF GAME
1 play · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
99.5%
Mike Mauai run for 4 yds to the Navy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:09
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 21 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)
-10
TD · Q3 6:07
Marquavius Weaver run for 4 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)
+7.5
TD · Q2 7:30
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 74 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)
+6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com