View as
Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreNAVY score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:40: Xavier Arline pass complete to Chance Warren for 15 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +5.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:30: Ra'Von Bonner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rory Bell KICK) — TEM win probability +10.1 pts (now 28%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:43: Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +11.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:47: Tayvon Ruley run for 4 yds for a TD, (Rory Bell KICK) — TEM win probability +9.0 pts (now 22%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:04: Isaac Ruoss run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +11.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 13:25NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snapGo for it79.0%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.1%average punt
- Q1 10:50TEM 4th & 9 at TEM 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snapGo for it21.9%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.0%average punt
- Q1 8:30NAVY 4th & 8 at NAVY 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snapGo for it76.5%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.6%average punt
- Q1 6:55TEM 4th & 11 at TEM 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snapGo for it23.5%−0.325% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.8%average punt
- Q1 2:20TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 31, down 7Close callPunted · 22.6% before the snapGo for it23.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.6%−0.5average punt
- Q2 8:43TEM 4th & 3 at TEM 43, down 14Close callPunted · 18.9% before the snapGo for it19.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 5:17NAVY 4th & 4 at TEM 44, up 7Close callPunted · 77.0% before the snapGo for it76.9%48% to convertField goal75.5%−1.427% to makePuntTheir call76.0%−0.9average punt
- Q2 2:31TEM 4th & 14 at TEM 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snapGo for it20.8%−2.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.0%average punt
- Q2 1:34NAVY 4th & 10 at TEM 45, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snapGo for it77.0%−0.130% to convertField goal76.7%−0.425% to makePuntTheir call77.0%average punt
- Q2 0:11NAVY 4th & 15 at TEM 15, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.1% before the snapGo for it75.4%−1.515% to convertField goalTheir call77.0%83% to makePunt73.2%−3.8average punt
- Q3 12:05TEM 4th & 12 at TEM 22, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snapGo for it18.4%−1.422% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.8%average punt
- Q3 12:05NAVY 4th & 4 at TEM 26, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call79.0%48% to convertField goal78.7%−0.364% to makePunt74.6%−4.4average punt
- Q3 6:38TEM 4th & 1 at NAVY 28, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.4%71% to convertField goal11.5%−1.960% to makePunt7.2%−6.2average punt
- Q4 15:00NAVY 4th & 1 at TEM 15, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.3%71% to convertField goal78.8%−2.583% to makePunt70.9%−10.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 4:33NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.6%97% to makeGo for two76.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:40NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.9%97% to makeGo for two79.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:30TEM Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.6%97% to makeGo for two23.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:43NAVY Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.4%97% to makeGo for two88.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:47TEM Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.9%97% to makeGo for two18.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:04NAVY Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.9%97% to makeGo for two94.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:40NAVY Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%−0.297% to makeGo for two99.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNAVYDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3580% → 79%
Q1 13:25
4TH & 9
OWN 36
-3
20.9%
Riley Riethman punt for 40 yds , Amad Anderson Jr. returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Temp 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 13:2521% → 28%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
20.8%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 9 yds to the Temp 30Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 17
OWN 26
+8
20.7%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Jose Barbon for 8 yds to the Temp 34Similar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 9
OWN 34
+22
21.9%
Adam Barry punt for 51 yds , Chance Warren returns for 22 yds to the Navy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3PUNT1 play · 2 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3523% → 24%
NAVYDrive 5TD6 plays · 27 yds · 2:2277% → 79%
Q1 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
21.4%
NICHOLS, Bijan PAT kick attempt missed (wide right). PENALTY Before the snap, TEM Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 2 yards from the TEM3 to the TEM1. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0622% → 23%
Q1 4:26
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+1
22.4%
Justin Lynch pass complete to James Della Pesca for 1 yd to the Temp 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7TD14 plays · 71 yds · 6:4078% → 83%
TEMDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 1:5719% → 19%
Q2 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
18.7%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Jose Barbon for 7 yds to the Temp 43Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
19.3%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Jose Barbon for no gain to the Temp 43Similar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
19.1%
Adam Barry punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9FUMBLE1 play · -14 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10TD1 play · 1 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 3:0676% → 77%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 6 yds · 2:4625% → 25%
NAVYDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5779% → 78%
Q2 1:34
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
22.5%
Riley Riethman punt for 38 yds , returns for no gain to the Temp 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14FG4 plays · -8 yds · 1:2380% → 80%
Q2 1:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
20.6%
Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Temp 15 fumbled, recovered by Navy Xavier ArlineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
21.8%
Mariano Valenti run for a loss of 2 yards to the Temp 32 fumbled, recovered by Temp Mariano ValentiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 2:5021% → 19%
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 14
-4
20.8%
VALENTI, Mariano pass up the middle complete for 4 yards to SMITH, Jordan caught at the TEM10 and advanced to the TEM18 (FAGOT, Diego). PENALTY TEM Holding on PITTMAN, Darius enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the TEM14 to the TEM7 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 14
OWN 7
+17
20.5%
Mariano Valenti pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 17 yds to the Temp 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
20.1%
Mariano Valenti sacked by Tyler Fletcher for 0 yards to the Temp 17Similar
Q3 12:17
4TH & 17
OWN 17
+5
19.0%
BARRY, Adam punt 38 yards to the NAV45 out of bounds. PENALTY NAV Running Into the kicker on WOODSON-BROOKS, Jianni enforced 5 yards from the TEM17 to the TEM22. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:05
4TH & 12
OWN 22
+4
19.0%
Adam Barry punt for 40 yds , Chance Warren returns for 4 yds to the Navy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17TD12 plays · 58 yds · 5:2280% → 91%
TEMDrive 18TD14 plays · 80 yds · 5:5112% → 22%
Q3 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+16
11.5%
Mariano Valenti pass complete to Jose Barbon for 16 yds to the Temp 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+14
11.8%
Mariano Valenti pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
50
-5
12.9%
Mariano Valenti pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Temp 45Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+15
12.1%
NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (Tyler Fletcher) to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+8
13.1%
Mariano Valenti pass complete to Kadas Reams for 8 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 6:38
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+14
13.5%
Mariano Valenti pass complete to Jordan Smith for 14 yds to the Navy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD12 plays · 75 yds · 6:4381% → 96%
TEMDrive 20FUMBLE3 plays · 37 yds · 1:255% → 5%
NAVYDrive 21TD14 plays · 57 yds · 5:5396% → 100%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
4.2%
run for no gain to the Temp 34 fumbled, recovered by Navy Tai LavataiSimilar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 15
OPP 39
+24
2.6%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Chance Warren for 24 yds to the Temp 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.4%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Chance Warren for 4 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 22Uncategorized4 plays · 0 yds · 1:051% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:43
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)
-11.7
TD · Q4 9:04
Isaac Ruoss run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)
-11.5
TD · Q2 8:30
Ra'Von Bonner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rory Bell KICK)
+10.1