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NAVY

Navy 17 at San Diego State 16

SDSU
2014 · San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl · Dec 23, 2014 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:37 · Pablo Beltran punt for 38 yds, downed at the SDSt 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 65Pregame prior+7.0Home team on offense+2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.9Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 6:34: Donny Hageman 37 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +3.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:28: Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +15.1 pts (now 51%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 4:16: Donny Hageman 30 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +6.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 1:27: Austin Grebe 24 yd FG GOOD — NAVY win probability +32.6 pts (now 75%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:01: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 19 — NAVY win probability +36.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8NAVY made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 10:45NAVY 4th & 3 at SDSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    39.4%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:51SDSU 4th & 7 at NAVY 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:20NAVY 4th & 2 at SDSU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    37.5%−1.4
    25% to make
    Punt
    38.1%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:31NAVY 4th & 16 at SDSU 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:34SDSU 4th & 6 at NAVY 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−4.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:37NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 48, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 36, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:10SDSU 4th & 6 at NAVY 43, down 1
    Close callPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    54.6%−2.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:16SDSU 4th & 5 at NAVY 13, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−12.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:57NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 18, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−2.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:45SDSU 4th & 16 at SDSU 34, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−6.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:45SDSU 4th & 5 at NAVY 12, up 2
    Close callWent for it · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.9%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    67.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−19.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:31NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 22, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.7 ptsPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%−4.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:38NAVY 4th & 1 at SDSU 44, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    28.7%−6.0
    27% to make
    Punt
    26.0%−8.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:27NAVY 4th & 3 at SDSU 6, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−19.0
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−34.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:20SDSU 4th & 6 at NAVY 17, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−34.8
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    15.5%−49.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:35NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:35SDSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:28NAVY Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1INT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:3763% → 63%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
62.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 12 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
62.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
62.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Adam RobertsSimilar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+10
62.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Larry Clark for 10 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
62.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
62.9%
Chase Price run for no gain to the Navy 36Similar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+29
62.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass intercepted Daniel Gonzales return for 29 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
10 plays · 42 yds · 4:2038% → 41%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
62.2%
Noah Copeland run for 2 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
62.1%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Ryan Williams-JenkinsSimilar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+5
62.1%
Noah Copeland run for 5 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q1 10:45
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+10
62.2%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 10 yds to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
61.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+5
61.6%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 5 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+14
61.8%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 14 yds to the SDSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
61.4%
Noah Copeland run for 3 yds to the SDSt 1Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
61.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the SDSt 1Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 1:3060% → 63%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
60.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+24
60.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 12 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Face Mask (12 yards) (Daniel Gonzales) to the Navy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
60.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 4
OPP 5
0
60.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd MillsSimilar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
62.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1139% → 39%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
61.5%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Brendan Dudeck for 6 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+2
61.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 6 yards to the Navy 31 Keenan Reynolds fumbled, recovered by SDSt Cody Galea , return for 2 yds to the Navy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4963% → 63%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
63.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 7
OPP 26
-5
63.3%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (Lloyd Mills) to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 12
OPP 31
0
63.2%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd MillsSimilar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+5
62.3%
Quinn Kaehler run for 5 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 2:51
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+43
63.2%
Donny Hageman 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
14 plays · 27 yds · 5:5437% → 37%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.9%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
62.7%
Noah Copeland run for 5 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
62.7%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 5 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
62.3%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 5 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+5
61.6%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 5 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
61.4%
Noah Copeland run for 4 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+2
61.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+2
61.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Geoffrey Whiteside for 2 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q2 13:20
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+3
62.0%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
61.0%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Thomas Wilson, broken up by Na'im McGeeSimilar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-2
61.1%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Derek Largent for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 44Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 12
OPP 44
-4
62.1%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Sergio Phillips for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 48Similar
Q2 11:31
4TH & 16
OPP 48
0
63.5%
Pablo Beltran punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Lloyd Mills at the SDSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7FG
10 plays · 68 yds · 4:5663% → 69%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
62.5%
Chase Price run for 9 yds to the SDSt 21Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+24
62.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Larry Clark for 24 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
64.3%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+19
64.5%
Chase Price run for 19 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
65.5%
Chase Price run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+13
64.2%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Chase Favreau for 13 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
66.4%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+1
66.4%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the Navy 20 Chase Price fumbled, recovered by SDSt Darrell GreeneSimilar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
65.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Adam Roberts, broken up by Parrish GainesSimilar
Q2 6:34
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
69.4%
Donny Hageman 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:5334% → 32%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
65.9%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 4 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
64.8%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
64.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
64.6%
Noah Copeland run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 8
50
-2
64.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 48Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
66.2%
Keenan Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:37
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
67.9%
Pablo Beltran punt for 38 yds, downed at the SDSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:2570% → 68%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
69.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the SDSt 21Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+3
69.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
69.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 12 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
70.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 32Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+5
69.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Chase Price for 5 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+4
69.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Chase Price for 4 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 5
OWN 41
-5
69.2%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 36Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
68.4%
Joel Alesi punt for 44 yds, fair catch by DeBrandon Sanders at the Navy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10TD
14 plays · 92 yds · 6:0731% → 51%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
69.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Navy 11Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+8
69.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 8 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
68.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 17Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+9
69.2%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 9 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+6
69.2%
Noah Copeland run for 6 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
68.1%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+24
69.5%
Chris Swain run for 24 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
65.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+1
65.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the SDSt 43Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+15
66.4%
Noah Copeland run for 15 yds to the SDSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
64.1%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 3 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+19
64.1%
Chris Swain run for 19 yds to the SDSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
48.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:4059% → 56%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
58.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 10 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
59.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+1
59.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the Navy 43Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
59.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Paul Pitts, broken up by George JamisonSimilar
Q3 6:10
4TH & 6
OPP 43
+3
56.4%
Joel Alesi punt for 28 yds , DeBrandon Sanders returns for 3 yds to the Navy 18 DeBrandon Sanders fumbled, recovered by SDSt Devante DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5161% → 65%
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
61.3%
Pumphrey, Donnel rush for 3 yards to the NAVY15, PENALTY SANDIEGOST illegal formation 5 yards to the NAVY23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+6
60.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+4
60.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the Navy 13Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 5
OPP 13
0
58.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q3 4:16
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+30
65.1%
Donny Hageman 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:1037% → 34%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
62.8%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 10Similar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+3
62.9%
Noah Copeland run for 3 yds to the Navy 13Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+9
63.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Brendan Dudeck for 9 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 3
OWN 22
-4
63.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 18Similar
Q3 1:57
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
66.0%
Pablo Beltran punt for 54 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for no gain to the SDSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:4265% → 62%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
64.7%
Chase Price run for 5 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+7
66.2%
Chase Price run for 7 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
67.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
67.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Eric JudgeSimilar
Q3 0:16
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-10
66.1%
Kaehler, Quinn pass complete to Hazely, Jemond for 5 yards to the SANDIEGOST49, PENALTY SANDIEGOST holding (Siragusa, Nico) 10 yards to the SANDIEGOST34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 34
0
62.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd MillsSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 16
OWN 34
0
61.8%
Joel Alesi punt for 31 yds, downed at the Navy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:1639% → 41%
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
61.5%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 6 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
58.7%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for no gain to the Navy 41 Ryan Williams-Jenkins fumbled, recovered by SDSt Christian HeywardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:4269% → 66%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
69.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 42Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 11
OPP 42
0
68.6%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Eric Judge, broken up by George JamisonSimilar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+20
66.4%
Quinn Kaehler pass intercepted George Jamison return for 20 yds to the Navy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2141% → 41%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
58.9%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
59.9%
Noah Copeland run for 5 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+7
59.7%
Noah Copeland run for 7 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
58.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 48 Keenan Reynolds fumbled, recovered by SDSt Derek LargentSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 40 yds · 3:0070% → 68%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
70.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Larry Clark for 11 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+24
71.1%
Chase Price run for 24 yds to the Navy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
72.2%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 8
OPP 15
-9
72.1%
Price, Chase rush for 8 yards to the NAVY7, PENALTY SANDIEGOST holding 9 yards to the NAVY24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 17
OPP 24
0
70.3%
Quinn Kaehler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 17
OPP 24
+12
68.0%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 12 yds to the Navy 12Similar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 5
OPP 12
0
67.9%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4436% → 33%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
64.0%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 5 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 5
OWN 18
0
65.1%
Chris Swain run for no gain to the Navy 18Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+4
65.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q4 6:31
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
67.2%
Pablo Beltran punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Lloyd Mills at the SDSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:3072% → 75%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
71.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 14 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
74.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the Navy 47 Donnel Pumphrey fumbled, recovered by NavySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21FG
15 plays · 47 yds · 3:5841% → 75%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
58.9%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 2 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+7
58.3%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 7 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-5
58.2%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+5
60.9%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 5 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q4 3:38
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+13
63.4%
Chris Swain run for 13 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-15
58.9%
NAVY Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
60.7%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+28
60.4%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 28 yds to the SDSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
57.0%
Noah Copeland run for 6 yds to the SDSt 7Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 4
OPP 7
-2
57.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 9Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+3
57.0%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the SDSt 6Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+24
25.5%
Austin Grebe 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22MISSED FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 0:5642% → 44%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
41.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 11 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
42.8%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Donnel PumphreySimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+32
40.2%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Eric Judge for 32 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
47.7%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 16 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
52.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the Navy 20Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+3
52.1%
Quinn Kaehler pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 3 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
48.5%
Quinn Kaehler pass incomplete to Lloyd MillsSimilar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+34
44.0%
Donny Hageman 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
7.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:01
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 19
-36.1
FG · Q4 1:27
Austin Grebe 24 yd FG GOOD
-32.6
TD · Q3 8:28
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
-15.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com