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WKU

Western Kentucky 36 at Navy 27

NAVY
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreWKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Pablo Beltran punt for 44 yds , Willie McNeal returns for 8 yds to the NAVY 46 WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal block (9 Yards) to the WKent 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Pregame prior+3.7Home team on offense−2.7Score differential−1.9Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:44: Toneo Gulley run for 19 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK) — NAVY win probability +10.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:46: Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 31 yds for a TD, (Brandon Doughty failed ) — WKU win probability +12.9 pts (now 41%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:52: Brandon Doughty run for 1 yd for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK) — WKU win probability +31.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:31: Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds for a TD, (Keenan Reynolds intercepted ) — NAVY win probability +23.3 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 0:45: Keenan Reynolds pass intercepted for a TD Wonderful Terry return for 43 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK) — WKU win probability +31.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 8 of 9WKU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 11:41WKU 4th & 8 at NAVY 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:41NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:37WKU 4th & 7 at NAVY 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    31.8%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:33NAVY 4th & 2 at WKU 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    67.4%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    67.2%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:03WKU 4th & 4 at NAVY 19, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.2%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    29.5%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:58WKU 4th & 10 at WKU 37, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:32NAVY 4th & 8 at NAVY 39, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:31WKU 4th & 3 at WKU 26, down 1
    Close callPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:26NAVY 4th & 20 at WKU 42, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−1.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    66.7%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:23NAVY 4th & 6 at WKU 10, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    57.0%−10.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:15WKU 4th & 5 at midfield, down 2
    Close callPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:33NAVY 4th & 15 at NAVY 18, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−4.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:26WKU 4th & 7 at NAVY 16, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−10.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 46, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−2.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:31WKU 4th & 2 at WKU 46, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.2 ptsPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%−4.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:45NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 35, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.0%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.5%−4.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:20NAVY 4th & 19 at NAVY 43, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%−0.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:05NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:58NAVY Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:32WKU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:44NAVY Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:52WKU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−2.0
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:45WKU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:1935% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
65.1%
Leon Allen run for 10 yds to the WKent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+24
65.1%
Leon Allen run for 24 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
65.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 9 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+4
65.1%
Leon Allen run for 4 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
65.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 14 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
64.6%
ALLEN, Leon rush for 21 yards to the NAVY0, clock 13:04, PENALTY WKU illegal block (DANGERFIELD, J.) 10 yards to the NAVY31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 20
OPP 31
0
64.7%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 20
OPP 31
+10
64.7%
Anthony Wales run for 10 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+2
64.7%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 2 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+37
64.5%
Garrett Schwettman 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-8
64.6%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Devante Terrell for a loss of 8 yards to the Navy 23Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 18
OWN 23
+4
64.5%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 4 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 14
OWN 27
+9
64.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 9 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+9
64.4%
Pablo Beltran punt for 54 yds , Willie McNeal returns for 9 yds to the WKent 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
64.2%
Anthony Wales run for 5 yds to the WKent 24Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
64.2%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Anthony WalesSimilar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+8
64.4%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Joel German for 8 yds to the WKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
64.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 31Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 11
OWN 31
0
64.2%
Anthony Wales run for no gain to the WKent 31Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+22
64.4%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Anthony Wales for 22 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
63.7%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Leon AllenSimilar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
63.8%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Joel GermanSimilar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+3
64.0%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Willie McNeal for 3 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 7
OPP 44
+20
64.2%
Joseph Occhipinti punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 9 WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, kick catching interference (N/A) to the Navy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 4:2863% → 67%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
63.4%
Noah Copeland run for 4 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+10
63.5%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 10 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
63.8%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Calvin Cass Jr. for 19 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
64.4%
Chris Swain run for 8 yds to the WKent 35Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 2
OPP 35
-3
64.7%
Toneo Gulley run for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 38Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+3
64.3%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the WKent 35Similar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+28
63.9%
Chris Swain run for 28 yds to the WKent 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
64.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the WKent 4Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
66.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 4:0235% → 36%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
65.3%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Leon Allen for 8 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
64.6%
Leon Allen run for no gain to the WKent 32Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+3
65.1%
Leon Allen run for 3 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
65.0%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Tim GorskiSimilar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
65.2%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 3 yds to the WKent 38Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+12
65.0%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
63.8%
Leon Allen run for 3 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+22
63.9%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Tyler Higbee for 22 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
63.2%
Leon Allen run for 4 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+2
63.2%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Anthony Wales for 2 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
63.8%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Willie McNealSimilar
Q2 13:03
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+36
63.8%
Garrett Schwettman 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:0565% → 71%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
64.8%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+14
64.6%
Toneo Gulley run for 14 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
65.5%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 11 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
66.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 8 yds to the WKent 41Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+41
71.3%
Noah Copeland run for 41 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
69.9%
Anthony Wales run for no gain to the WKent 37Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
70.2%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Tim Gorski, broken up by Kwazel BertrandSimilar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
71.1%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Tyler HigbeeSimilar
Q2 10:58
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
71.5%
Joseph Occhipinti punt for 41 yds , Parrish Gaines returns for no gain to the Navy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8FUMBLE
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
69.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Navy 24 Keenan Reynolds fumbled, forced by Ge'Monee Brown, recovered by WKent Nick HoltSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:2632% → 40%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
68.0%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 11 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
68.0%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Willie McNealSimilar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
60.4%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Willie McNeal for 13 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
64.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+13
64.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 13 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
65.1%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Geoffrey WhitesideSimilar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
64.8%
Noah Copeland run for 2 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
64.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to N/A NAVY Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 9:32
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
63.4%
Pablo Beltran punt for 42 yds, downed at the WKent 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
64.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 5 yds to the WKent 24Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+2
63.7%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Joel German for 2 yds to the WKent 26Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 3
OWN 26
0
64.2%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
65.4%
Joseph Occhipinti punt for 36 yds, downed at the Navy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
66.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 9 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+5
67.2%
Noah Copeland run for 5 yds to the WKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
67.5%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 4 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+12
67.5%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 12 yds to the WKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-15
68.0%
Reynolds, K rush for no gain to the WKU32, fumble forced by RANDALL, Daqual, fumble by Reynolds, K recovered by NAVY Reynolds, K at WKU34, PENALTY NAVY personal foul 15 yards to the WKU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 25
OPP 47
+2
66.5%
Toneo Gulley run for 2 yds to the WKent 45Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 23
OPP 45
0
66.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Geoffrey WhitesideSimilar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 23
OPP 45
+8
65.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 8 yds to the WKent 37Similar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 15
OPP 37
-5
63.9%
NAVY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the WKent 42Similar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 20
OPP 42
0
63.9%
Pablo Beltran punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13INT
15 plays · 72 yds · 1:4936% → 40%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
63.6%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 7 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
62.6%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Willie McNeal for 4 yds to the WKent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
62.9%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Anthony Wales for 7 yds to the WKent 38Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+4
61.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Tyler Higbee for 4 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
61.7%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Willie McNealSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+16
62.3%
Anthony Wales run for 16 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
60.3%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 9 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 1
OPP 33
0
58.6%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Antwane Grant, broken up by Brendon ClementsSimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+11
59.8%
Leon Allen run for 11 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
58.6%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 5 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+9
58.7%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Leon Allen for 9 yds to the Navy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+37
59.6%
Brandon Doughty pass intercepted Daniel Gonzales return for 37 yds to the Navy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 3:1666% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
65.5%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 19 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
67.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 9 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+3
68.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
68.3%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 16 yds to the WKent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
68.9%
Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the WKent 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+5
68.9%
Quinton Singleton run for 5 yds to the WKent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
79.4%
Toneo Gulley run for 19 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 1:5824% → 41%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
76.0%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Leon Allen for 13 yds to the WKent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
75.8%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Leon Allen for 9 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+20
74.0%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 20 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
73.1%
Leon Allen run for 12 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
71.8%
Leon Allen run for 3 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+31
59.0%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 31 yds for a TD, (Brandon Doughty failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16MISSED FG
8 plays · 56 yds · 3:2365% → 66%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
65.3%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for no gain to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
65.1%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to DeBrandon SandersSimilar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+52
63.8%
Noah Copeland run for 52 yds to the WKent 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
69.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the WKent 14Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-8
69.3%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Bryan Shorter for a loss of 8 yards to the WKent 22Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 18
OPP 22
+12
66.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 12 yds to the WKent 10Similar
Q3 6:23
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+28
66.3%
Nick Sloan 28 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:0836% → 39%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
63.8%
Anthony Wales run for 7 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
62.6%
Anthony Wales run for 2 yds to the WKent 29Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
63.8%
Brandon Doughty run for 2 yds to the WKent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
63.2%
Anthony Wales run for 5 yds to the WKent 36Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+9
61.6%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 9 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
60.8%
Anthony Wales run for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 42Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+8
61.4%
Leon Allen run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 5
50
0
58.4%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Jared DangerfieldSimilar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 5
50
0
61.0%
Joseph Occhipinti punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0064% → 61%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
63.8%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Dejon Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 19Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 14
OWN 19
-1
63.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 18 Keenan Reynolds fumbled, recovered by Navy Keenan ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 15
OWN 18
0
61.6%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Geoffrey Whiteside, broken up by Dejon BrownSimilar
Q3 3:33
4TH & 15
OWN 18
+7
60.7%
Pablo Beltran punt for 42 yds , Willie McNeal returns for 7 yds to the WKent 25 WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the WKent 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19FG
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:5339% → 50%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+44
60.6%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 44 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
55.3%
Leon Allen run for no gain to the Navy 19Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+8
55.8%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Leon Allen for 8 yds to the Navy 11Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 2
OPP 11
-5
57.1%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Cameron Clemmons) to the Navy 16Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
57.1%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Joel GermanSimilar
Q3 0:26
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+33
49.8%
Garrett Schwettman 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:2651% → 49%
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+24
51.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Demond Brown for 24 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
56.2%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 49
-1
57.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
50
-4
55.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+8
49.4%
Pablo Beltran punt for 44 yds , Willie McNeal returns for 8 yds to the NAVY 46 WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal block (9 Yards) to the WKent 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21TD
17 plays · 91 yds · 6:1150% → 90%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
49.7%
Anthony Wales run for 5 yds to the WKent 14Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 5
OWN 14
-5
49.4%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WKent 9Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+16
50.3%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Willie McNeal for 16 yds to the WKent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
48.6%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 8 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
45.9%
Anthony Wales run for 3 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
46.6%
Leon Allen run for 4 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
44.8%
NAVY Penalty, Defensive offside (Aaron Davis) to the WKent 45Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+11
43.9%
Leon Allen run for 11 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
43.7%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Willie McNeal for 6 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+7
43.1%
Anthony Wales run for 7 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
41.9%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 4 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+8
41.3%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Anthony Wales for 8 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
41.3%
Anthony Wales run for no gain to the Navy 19Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+15
41.9%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 15 yds to the Navy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
41.3%
Leon Allen run for 2 yds to the Navy 2Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
41.3%
Leon Allen run for 1 yd to the Navy 1Similar
Q4 6:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.0%
Brandon Doughty run for 1 yd for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 2:2117% → 47%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
16.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 10 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+35
17.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 35 yds to the WKent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+23
23.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 23 yds to the WKent 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
24.0%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 7 yds to the WKent 4Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+2
24.0%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the WKent 2Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
47.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds for a TD, (Keenan Reynolds intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0069% → 70%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
31.0%
Leon Allen run for 2 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
30.6%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Leon Allen for 11 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
28.1%
Anthony Wales run for 3 yds to the WKent 41Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
27.7%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 5 yds to the WKent 46Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
27.8%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Antwane Grant, broken up by Parrish GainesSimilar
Q4 4:31
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
30.2%
Joseph Occhipinti punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 24INT TD
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:5138% → 5%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
38.0%
Demond Brown run for 6 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+9
38.8%
Demond Brown run for 9 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
39.1%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for no gain to the Navy 35Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
38.6%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to DeBrandon SandersSimilar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
36.0%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Noah CopelandSimilar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+43
4.9%
Keenan Reynolds pass intercepted for a TD Wonderful Terry return for 43 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:256% → 5%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
6.2%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 12 yds to the WKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
7.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-9
6.7%
Keenan Reynolds sacked by Branden Leston for a loss of 9 yards to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 19
OWN 43
0
5.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 19
OWN 43
0
5.0%
Keenan Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
4.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:52
Brandon Doughty run for 1 yd for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)
-31.3
TD · Q4 0:45
Keenan Reynolds pass intercepted for a TD Wonderful Terry return for 43 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)
-31.1
TD · Q4 4:31
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds for a TD, (Keenan Reynolds intercepted )
+23.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com