Try the model
SJSU

San José State 31 at Navy 41

NAVY
2014 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2014 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:01 · DeBrandon Sanders run for 7 yds to the SJSt 23 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Pregame prior+12.9Home team on offense+4.8Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:35: Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK) — SJSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 34%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:51: Keenan Reynolds run for 8 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +4.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:56: Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +6.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:43: Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 33 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK) — SJSU win probability +8.7 pts (now 29%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:49: Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +7.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4SJSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:41NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:15SJSU 4th & 5 at NAVY 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:51SJSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:01NAVY 4th & 3 at SJSU 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    72.8%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    71.5%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:00NAVY 4th & 1 at SJSU 2, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%
    60% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.1%−2.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−7.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00SJSU 4th & 5 at NAVY 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:49SJSU 4th & 12 at SJSU 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−1.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:21SJSU 4th & 5 at NAVY 28, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 3:06NAVY 4th & 5 at SJSU 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    95.4%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 14:57NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:35SJSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:51NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:56NAVY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:43SJSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:49NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:21NAVY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:20SJSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.4%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:24SJSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
74.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 18 Keenan Reynolds fumbled, recovered by SJSt Jimmy PruittSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2INT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
74.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 10 yds to the Navy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
74.5%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 9Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
74.5%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Tyler WinstonSimilar
Q1 14:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+11
74.5%
Joe Gray pass intercepted Kwazel Bertrand return for 11 yds to the Navy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
74.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 8 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+3
74.3%
Noah Copeland run for 3 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
74.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 7 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
74.3%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
74.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+3
74.3%
Noah Copeland run for 3 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+3
74.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 13:41
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+43
74.2%
Pablo Beltran punt for 43 yds , Tyler Ervin returns for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4FG
18 plays · 79 yds · 7:3227% → 30%
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
73.4%
Tim Crawley run for 4 yds to the SJSt 20Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+9
73.4%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 9 yds to the SJSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
73.3%
Joe Gray pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
73.4%
Tyler Ervin run for 5 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+5
73.4%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 5 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
73.1%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the SJSt 40Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
73.2%
Joe Gray pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+19
73.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 19 yds to the NAVY 41 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Defensive offside (NA) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
72.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 7 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+7
72.8%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 7 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
72.8%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 11 yds to the Navy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
72.8%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 17Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+7
72.8%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 7 yds to the Navy 10Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+6
72.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 6 yds to the Navy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
72.8%
Joe Gray pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
72.8%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the Navy 2Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
72.9%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 5Similar
Q1 2:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
69.7%
Austin Lopez 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1870% → 74%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
70.0%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to DeBrandon Sanders for 27 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
71.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 8 yds to the SJSt 40Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+13
71.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Brandon Colon for 13 yds to the SJSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+17
71.8%
Chris Swain run for 17 yds to the SJSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
71.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the SJSt 6Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
74.0%
Noah Copeland run for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK), (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2227% → 34%
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
72.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Jabari Carr for 12 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
72.1%
Tim Crawley run for 2 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+9
71.8%
Joe Gray pass complete to Andrew Vollert for 9 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
71.4%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 8 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+3
71.1%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 3 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
71.2%
Tyler Ervin run for 19 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
71.1%
Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 10 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
71.1%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 6 yds to the Navy 6Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 4
OPP 6
0
71.1%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Jabari CarrSimilar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
65.9%
Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4468% → 76%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
68.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
68.4%
Dishan Romine run for 8 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
68.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+47
69.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 47 yds to the SJSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
71.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the SJSt 8Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
75.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 8 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
73.2%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 23Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
73.3%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Hansell WilsonSimilar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+7
74.0%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 7 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q2 7:51
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+19
74.2%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 50 yds , DeBrandon Sanders returns for 19 yds to the Navy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 1:2874% → 82%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
73.9%
Noah Copeland run for 6 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Travis Raciti) to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+36
75.0%
Noah Copeland run for 36 yds to the SJSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
75.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the SJSt 3Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
82.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1318% → 29%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
81.6%
Tyler Ervin run for 8 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+16
80.8%
Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 16 yds to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
80.4%
Tim Crawley run for 14 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
80.2%
Joe Gray pass complete to Jabari Carr for 4 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
79.3%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Tim CrawleySimilar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+33
70.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 33 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11FG
21 plays · 73 yds · 2:4373% → 77%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
72.9%
Dishan Romine run for 14 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
73.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+9
74.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 9 yds to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
74.9%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 6 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+2
75.0%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+4
74.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
74.7%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to DeBrandon SandersSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
74.5%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Brendan DudeckSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+7
73.7%
Dishan Romine run for 7 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+7
72.8%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 7 yds to the SJSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
75.1%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir Tillman, broken up by Cleveland WallaceSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+12
75.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 12 yds to the SJSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
75.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+8
75.1%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Brendan Dudeck for 8 yds to the SJSt 3Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+1
74.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the SJSt 2Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+20
76.9%
Austin Grebe 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.4%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the SJSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.5%
Joe Gray run for 6 yds to the SJSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
76.4%
Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 4 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
75.8%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 2 yds to the SJSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+11
75.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 11 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
74.4%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Shane SmithSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
75.0%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the SJSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+5
75.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 5 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
76.1%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 45 yds, downed at the Navy 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13TD
14 plays · 98 yds · 5:2077% → 92%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
77.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Navy 6Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+8
77.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 8 yds to the Navy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
77.4%
Chris Swain run for 1 yd to the Navy 15Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+8
77.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 8 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+2
76.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
77.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 11 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
78.4%
Noah Copeland run for 4 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
79.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
78.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
79.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 13 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
83.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 8 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+30
84.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 30 yds to the SJSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
88.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Jabari Carr for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 26Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 12
OWN 26
0
89.2%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Tyler ErvinSimilar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 12
OWN 26
0
89.4%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Tim CrawleySimilar
Q3 5:49
4TH & 12
OWN 26
0
89.6%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 38 yds, downed at the Navy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 5:2692% → 99%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
91.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+4
91.8%
Noah Copeland run for 4 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
91.8%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+6
91.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
91.7%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
91.9%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 11 yds to the SJSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
92.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 7 yds to the SJSt 25Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+4
92.1%
Noah Copeland run for 4 yds to the SJSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
92.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the SJSt 17Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+4
92.1%
Noah Copeland run for 4 yds to the SJSt 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+5
94.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the SJSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.7%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 8 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16TD
16 plays · 69 yds · 6:012% → 5%
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
98.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 15 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
98.3%
Joe Gray run for 1 yd to the SJSt 47Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+20
98.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 20 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
98.1%
Tyler Ervin run for 9 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 1
OPP 24
0
97.9%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 1
OPP 24
-5
98.0%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (NA) to the Navy 29Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+1
98.2%
Joe Gray run for 1 yd to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 14:21
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+10
98.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 10 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
97.9%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Andrew VollertSimilar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+9
98.0%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 9 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+3
98.0%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the Navy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
98.8%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the Navy 5Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.8%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Tyler WinstonSimilar
Q4 8:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
94.9%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 5 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17FG
11 plays · 30 yds · 5:1497% → 99%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
96.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+3
96.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+5
96.5%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
96.7%
Chris Swain run for 8 yds to the SJSt 23Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+3
96.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the SJSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
96.7%
Quinton Singleton run for 1 yd to the SJSt 19Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+1
96.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the SJSt 18Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+3
96.6%
Quinton Singleton run for 3 yds to the SJSt 15Similar
Q4 3:06
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
98.8%
Austin Grebe 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 1:422% → 5%
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
98.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Jabari Carr for 4 yds to the SJSt 25Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+9
98.2%
Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 9 yds to the SJSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
98.2%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 12 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
98.2%
Joe Gray pass complete to Jabari Carr for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 6
50
+37
98.1%
Joe Gray pass complete to Andrew Vollert for 37 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
97.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Andrew Vollert for 5 yds to the Navy 8Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
94.6%
Tyler Ervin run for 8 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19END OF GAME
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 47Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 11
OPP 47
-2
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 49Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 13
OPP 49
-1
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:43
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 33 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)
-8.7
TD · Q3 5:49
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
+7.1
TD · Q2 4:56
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
+6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com