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GASO

Georgia Southern 19 at Navy 52

NAVY
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2014 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:52 · Pablo Beltran punt for 36 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Home team on offense+0.4Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.2Pregame prior+6.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:07: Alfred Ramsby run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK) — GASO win probability +3.3 pts (now 45%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:17: Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 14 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +6.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:25: Keenan Reynolds run for 22 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +10.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:11: Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK) — NAVY win probability +4.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:27: Matt Breida run for 36 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks PAT MISSED) — GASO win probability +4.0 pts (now 9%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 8:07NAVY 4th & 1 at GASO 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.1%−0.4
    77% to make
    Punt
    56.7%−1.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:52GASO 4th & 8 at GASO 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:52NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00GASO 4th & 10 at GASO 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:17GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.7%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:14NAVY 4th & 5 at GASO 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:38GASO 4th & 4 at NAVY 45, down 10
    Close callPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    26.5%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:25GASO 4th & 20 at NAVY 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−2.8
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−5.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 47, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:36GASO 4th & 8 at NAVY 21, down 33
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:07GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:52NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:17NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:25NAVY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:11NAVY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:27GASO Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:25NAVY Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:11NAVY Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:48GASO Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.6%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:36NAVY Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASODrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:5342% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
58.5%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
58.5%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
58.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 15 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
58.5%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Derek Keaton for 5 yds to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+11
58.5%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Derek Keaton for 11 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
58.5%
Devin Scott run for 6 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+1
58.5%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the Navy 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+4
58.5%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Matt Breida for 4 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
58.5%
Matt Breida run for 11 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
58.5%
Alfred Ramsby run for 5 yds to the Navy 13Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+7
58.5%
Alfred Ramsby run for 7 yds to the Navy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
58.5%
Alfred Ramsby run for 4 yds to the Navy 2Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
55.2%
Alfred Ramsby run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
11 plays · 62 yds · 5:1556% → 60%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
56.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+32
56.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 32 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
57.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+3
57.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+1
56.9%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+3
56.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
57.2%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 7Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+4
57.2%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
57.3%
Dishan Romine run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 1Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
58.3%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
58.4%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to BJ Johnson, broken up by Brendon ClementsSimilar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
58.8%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Kentrellis Showers, broken up by Quincy Adams GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 2:52
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
59.3%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 32 yds, downed at the Navy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
59.9%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
59.5%
Demond Brown run for no gain to the Navy 46 Demond Brown fumbled, forced by Antonio Glover,Similar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
58.9%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Demond BrownSimilar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
58.4%
Pablo Beltran punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1542% → 41%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
57.9%
Alfred Ramsby run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+1
57.9%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to BJ Johnson for 1 yd to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 5
OWN 23
-5
58.3%
Favian Upshaw run for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSo 18Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 18
0
59.0%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 38 yds, fair catch by DeBrandon Sanders at the Navy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 3:3660% → 67%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
60.1%
Noah Copeland run for 5 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+10
60.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
60.5%
Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+7
60.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
60.9%
Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+5
60.9%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+6
60.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
67.1%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 14 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7FUMBLE
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0035% → 36%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
64.6%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-5
64.2%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+12
65.5%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Zach Walker for 12 yds Zach Walker fumbled, forced by William Tuider, recovered by GeoSo Zach Walker for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
63.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
63.2%
Kevin Ellison run for no gain to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+1
63.4%
Zach Walker run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+6
64.1%
Alfred Ramsby run for 6 yds to the Navy 40 Alfred Ramsby fumbled, forced by William Tuider, recovered by Navy George JamisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:5969% → 71%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
69.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+19
69.3%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 19 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
69.7%
Chris Swain run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
69.7%
Noah Copeland run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
70.5%
Noah Copeland run for no gain to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+3
69.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 18Similar
Q2 3:14
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+36
71.0%
Austin Grebe 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 2:3631% → 28%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
69.4%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
69.2%
Kevin Ellison run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
69.0%
Kevin Ellison run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
68.6%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Zach WalkerSimilar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
69.0%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Matt Breida for 7 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 3
OPP 44
-1
68.5%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 45Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
71.6%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Parrish Gaines at the Navy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
72.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the Navy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:3574% → 87%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
74.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+22
74.5%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to N/A for 22 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
75.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+20
75.7%
Keenan Reynolds run for 20 yds to the GeoSo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
86.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 22 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12MISSED FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:0015% → 12%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
84.8%
Matt Breida run for 13 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+37
84.4%
Matt Breida run for 37 yds to the Navy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
82.5%
Matt Breida run for no gain to the Navy 17Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
82.6%
Zach Walker run for no gain to the Navy 17Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 10
OPP 17
-10
84.0%
Walker, Zach rush for 10 yards to the NAVY7, out-of-bounds (Jamison, George), PENALTY GSU holding (Keaton, Derek) 10 yards to the NAVY27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 20
OPP 27
0
85.0%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Zach Walker, broken up by Parrish GainesSimilar
Q3 9:25
4TH & 20
OPP 27
+44
87.6%
Alex Hanks 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 4:1490% → 97%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
89.7%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Chris SwainSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+16
89.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 16 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
90.2%
Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+7
90.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
90.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+5
90.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+1
90.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+33
90.4%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Demond Brown for 33 yds to the GeoSo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:444% → 9%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.8%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
95.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
95.5%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson for 9 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+11
95.3%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Devin Scott for 11 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
95.4%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+3
95.2%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+1
95.3%
Kevin Ellison run for 11 yds to the Navy 26 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the Navy 36Similar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+36
91.2%
Matt Breida run for 36 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2794% → 95%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
93.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-3
93.9%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Geoffrey Whiteside for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+5
95.1%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Quinton Singleton for 5 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
94.7%
Pablo Beltran punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brandan Thomas at the GeoSo 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
94.0%
Kevin Ellison pass intercepted Quincy Adams return for no gain to the GeoSo 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 2:4096% → 99%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
96.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+9
96.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
96.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-3
96.3%
Chris Swain run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 27 Chris Swain fumbled, recovered by Navy Chris SwainSimilar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+27
99.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 27 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18INT
7 plays · 49 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+22
97.1%
Favian Upshaw run for 22 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
97.1%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+14
97.1%
Favian Upshaw run for 14 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
96.7%
Favian Upshaw run for 8 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+2
96.9%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+68
96.6%
Favian Upshaw pass intercepted Daniel Gonzales return for 68 yds to the GeoSo 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:44100% → 100%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
99.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 15 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20TD
2 plays · 88 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+88
99.8%
Matt Breida run for 88 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21TD
2 plays · 39 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
99.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for 39 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 52 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
99.9%
Alfred Ramsby run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+6
99.9%
Alfred Ramsby run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.9%
Alfred Ramsby run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+3
99.9%
Favian Upshaw run for 3 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+8
99.9%
Alfred Ramsby run for 8 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
99.9%
Favian Upshaw run for 18 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
99.9%
Alfred Ramsby run for 1 yd to the Navy 22Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 9
OPP 22
-6
99.9%
Alfred Ramsby run for a loss of 6 yards to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 15
OPP 28
+7
99.9%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Devin Scott for 7 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q4 7:36
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+6
99.9%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Zach Walker for 6 yds to the Navy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23END OF GAME
6 plays · 44 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
99.9%
Tago Smith run for 5 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+4
99.9%
Quentin Ezell run for 4 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+9
99.9%
John Hendrick run for 9 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
99.9%
John Hendrick run for 10 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
99.9%
John Hendrick run for 18 yds to the GeoSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:25
Keenan Reynolds run for 22 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
+10.9
TD · Q2 11:17
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 14 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
+6.2
TD · Q3 5:11
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)
+4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com