LSU

Profile vs. FBS, 2022

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2895th
  Defense+0.0762nd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense51.1%95th
  Defense40.7%65th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2033rd
  Defense+1.2642nd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2998th
  Defense+0.0463rd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2870th
  Defense+0.1082nd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense57.1%96th
  Defense44.6%75th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.8%80th
  Defense32.3%32nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.6199th
  Defense2.8580th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense12.0%97th
  Defense20.4%83rd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense12.6%80th
  Defense14.8%30th

Percentiles among the 131 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2022

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what LSU allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   FSU
2. W
   SOU
3. W
   MSST
4. W
   UNM
5. W
   AUB
6. L
   TENN
7. W
   FLA
8. W
   MISS
9. W
   ALA
10. W
    ARK
11. W
    UAB
12. L
    TA&M
13. L
    UGA
14. W
    PUR

Bars above the line: better than expected for LSU.

Players, 2022

1. Jayden DanielsQB466 plays · +0.240 pts/play · 21st of 234 QBs
   2.09WAR1.19 to 3.00
2. Malik NabersWR64 plays · +0.258 pts/play · 12th of 455 WRs
   0.31WAR0.21 to 0.42
3. Josh WilliamsRB103 plays · +0.150 pts/play · 101st of 384 RBs
   0.29WAR0.21 to 0.37
4. John Emery Jr.RB73 plays · +0.145 pts/play · 156th of 384 RBs
   0.20WAR0.14 to 0.25
5. Jay BramblettP45 plays · +0.181 pts/play · 9th of 102 punters
   0.15WAR0.08 to 0.23
6. Kayshon BoutteWR53 plays · +0.143 pts/play · 134th of 455 WRs
   0.14WAR0.03 to 0.25
7. Mason TaylorTE33 plays · +0.190 pts/play · 22nd of 214 TEs
   0.12WAR0.06 to 0.17
8. Noah CainRB49 plays · +0.114 pts/play · 250th of 384 RBs
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.15

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares LSU's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2022

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  8738738th of 129Roster talent: 873, 8th of 129 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  2802806th of 129Recruiting: 280, 6th of 129 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  48%48%84th of 128Returning production: 48%, 84th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +16.2+16.214th of 129SP+ rating: +16.2, 14th of 129 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 129 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2022

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than LSU's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.05 of the 0.07 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at ARKQ4 1:35 4th & 1 at LSU 31, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.4 pts
2. at TA&MQ2 5:38 4th & 2 at TA&M 16, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
3. at AUBQ3 9:30 4th & 4 at AUB 48, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
4. at TA&MQ4 2:37 4th & 15 at TA&M 27, down 15Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.6 pts
5. vs MSSTQ2 10:11 4th & 2 at LSU 11, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
6. at UGAQ4 7:12 4th & 10 at UGA 33, down 27Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.2 pts
7. vs TENNQ2 0:23 4th & 10 at TENN 45, down 13Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.2 pts
8. vs SOUQ4 3:25 4th & 13 at SOU 37, up 51Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)<0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2022

18th of 131 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up LSU's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   FSU
2. W

   SOU
3. W

   MSST
4. W

   UNM
5. W

   AUB
6. L

   TENN
7. W

   FLA
8. W

   MISS
9. W

   ALA
10. W

    ARK
11. W

    UAB
12. L

    TA&M
13. L

    UGA
14. W

    PUR

What moved it, 2022

Every game starts at LSU's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+2.39
• Possession & field position+0.06
• Clock+0.21
• Timeouts−0.21
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.10

Game by game

• FSUL 23-24 at FSU60% → 94%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +35: Scoreboard +43, Clock +2
• SOUW 65-17 vs SOU99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• MSSTW 31-16 vs MSST43% → 99%Before kickoff −7 · On the field +56: Scoreboard +45, Timeouts +1
• UNMW 38-0 vs UNM98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +4
• AUBW 21-17 at AUB71% → 95%Before kickoff +21 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +39, Clock +2
• TENNL 13-40 vs TENN41% → 0%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −41: Scoreboard −45, Clock −1
• FLAW 45-35 at FLA47% → 96%Before kickoff −3 · On the field +50: Scoreboard +51, Clock +3
• MISSW 45-20 vs MISS56% → 100%Before kickoff +6 · On the field +44: Scoreboard +40, Clock +2
• ALAW 32-31 vs ALA16% → 89%Before kickoff −34 · On the field +73: Scoreboard +38, Timeouts −21
• ARKW 13-10 at ARK57% → 94%Before kickoff +7 · On the field +37: Scoreboard +44, Clock +3
• UABW 41-10 vs UAB84% → 100%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +19
• TA&ML 23-38 at TA&M70% → 1%Before kickoff +20 · On the field −69: Scoreboard −49, Timeouts −2
• UGAL 30-50 at UGA10% → 0%Before kickoff −40 · On the field −10: Scoreboard −15
• PURW 63-7 at PUR84% → 100%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +22

Points of win probability, from LSU's side.

Closest call

LSU 37-34 FLA (2020) - LSU dropped to a 6.6% win probability before pulling it out.