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SOU

Southern 17 at LSU 65

LSU
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadSOU aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreSOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Luke Jackson 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 13:25: Jayden Daniels 18 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick) — SOU win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 7:07: Micah Baskerville 29 Yd Interception Return (Damian Ramos Kick) — LSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:20: Brian Thomas Jr. 44 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick) — LSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4SOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:59SOU 4th & 5 at SOU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:08SOU 4th & 4 at SOU 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:31SOU 4th & 13 at SOU 34, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:56SOU 4th & 6 at SOU 36, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:56SOU 4th & 6 at SOU 36, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:30LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 31, up 44
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:32SOU 4th & 5 at LSU 26, down 44
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:34SOU 4th & 10 at LSU 13, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:21LSU 4th & 14 at LSU 21, up 51
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:25LSU 4th & 13 at SOU 37, up 51
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    100.0%
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:25LSU 4th & 13 at SOU 37, up 51
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    100.0%
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9SOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:25LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:46LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:16LSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 7:07LSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 4:44LSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 14:20LSU Touchdown, up 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:06LSU Touchdown, up 50 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:42LSU Touchdown, up 57 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:45SOU Touchdown, down 52 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:01LSU Touchdown, up 57 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 8:15SOU Touchdown, down 52 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:2999% → 99%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
99.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 5 yds to the Sthrn 16Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 5
OPP 16
-5
99.2%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Sthrn 21Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
99.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 3 yds to the Sthrn 18Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+18
99.1%
Jayden Daniels 18 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:261% → 1%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Besean McCray pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Besean McCray pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Besean McCray pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.1%
LSU Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the Sthrn 30Similar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+18
99.1%
Robens Beauplan punt for 50 yds , Gregory Clayton Jr. returns for 18 yds to the LSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:1399% → 99%
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
99.1%
Armoni Goodwin run for 11 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
99.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 8 yds to the Sthrn 43Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+38
99.1%
Armoni Goodwin run for 38 yds to the Sthrn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.1%
Josh Williams 5 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:301% → 1%
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
99.1%
Jerodd Sims run for 4 yds to the Sthrn 20Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+2
99.1%
Besean McCray pass complete to Jerodd Sims for 2 yds to the Sthrn 22Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 4
OWN 22
0
99.1%
Besean McCray pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:08
4TH & 4
OWN 22
0
99.0%
Robens Beauplan punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:5299% → 99%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+41
99.0%
Kayshon Boutte run for 41 yds to the Sthrn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
99.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 13 yds to the Sthrn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
99.1%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the Sthrn 15Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+3
99.1%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the Sthrn 12Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 5
OPP 12
-5
99.0%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Sthrn 17Similar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+17
99.1%
Jack Bech 17 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 6INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-29
99.3%
Micah Baskerville 29 Yd Interception Return (Damian Ramos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:241% → 1%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.3%
Kendric Rhymes run for 2 yds to the Sthrn 27Similar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.3%
Kendric Rhymes run for 2 yds to the Sthrn 27Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
99.3%
Besean McCray pass complete to Dupree Fuller for 6 yds to the Sthrn 33Similar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-4
99.3%
Jerodd Sims run for a loss of 4 yards to the Sthrn 24 Jerodd Sims fumbled, recovered by LSU Desmond LittleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:5999% → 99%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.3%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+21
99.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 21 yds to the Sthrn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
99.3%
Armoni Goodwin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Sthrn 5Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.3%
Malik Nabers 5 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 3:131% → 1%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.2%
Kendric Rhymes run for 9 yds to the Sthrn 34Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
99.1%
Jerodd Sims run for 3 yds to the Sthrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
99.2%
Jerodd Sims run for 1 yd to the Sthrn 38Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-6
99.2%
Besean McCray sacked by Sai'vion Jones and Mekhi Wingo for a loss of 6 yards to the Sthrn 32Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+2
99.3%
Besean McCray pass complete to Chandler Whitfield for 2 yds to the Sthrn 34Similar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 13
OWN 34
0
99.5%
punt blocked by Micah Baskerville for a SAFETY blocked by Micah Baskerville for a SAFETY for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 2:0499% → 99%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
99.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 8 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-8
99.3%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Joshua Donald for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+16
99.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 16 yds to the Sthrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
99.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 5 yds to the Sthrn 44Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+44
99.4%
Brian Thomas Jr. 44 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:140% → 0%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
99.6%
Jerodd Sims run for 2 yds to the Sthrn 34Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+2
99.6%
Jerodd Sims run for 2 yds to the Sthrn 36Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
99.6%
Besean McCray pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Robens Beauplan punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 25Similar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Robens Beauplan punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:2699% → 99%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.4%
Armoni Goodwin run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.4%
Armoni Goodwin run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
99.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kole Taylor for 3 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
99.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kole Taylor for 3 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q2 11:30
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.4%
Jay Bramblett punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Chandler Whitfield at the Sthrn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 13MISSED FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 4:580% → 0%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
99.7%
Besean McCray run for 4 yds to the Sthrn 26Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+9
99.7%
Besean McCray run for 9 yds to the Sthrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.7%
Kendric Rhymes run for 4 yds to the Sthrn 39Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
99.7%
Kendric Rhymes run for no gain to the Sthrn 39Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+10
99.7%
Besean McCray run for 10 yds to the Sthrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+10
99.7%
Besean McCray run for 10 yds to the Sthrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
99.6%
Jerodd Sims run for 4 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+16
99.6%
Jerodd Sims run for 16 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
99.6%
Jerodd Sims run for 5 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 5
OPP 26
0
99.6%
Cornelius Dyson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
99.7%
Besean McCray pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:32
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+43
99.6%
Luke Jackson 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
99.7%
Armoni Goodwin run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 12
OWN 24
0
99.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 12
OWN 24
0
99.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 15MISSED FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:040% → 0%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
99.8%
Besean McCray run for 1 yd to the LSU 37Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+24
99.8%
Jerodd Sims run for 24 yds to the LSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+1
99.8%
Jerodd Sims run for 1 yd to the LSU 11Similar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
99.8%
Jerodd Sims run for 1 yd to the LSU 12Similar
Q2 2:39
3RD & 8
OPP 11
-2
99.8%
Besean McCray sacked by West Weeks and Jaquelin Roy for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 13Similar
Q2 2:34
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
99.8%
Luke Jackson 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
99.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+60
99.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Malik Nabers for 60 yds to the Sthrn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
99.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 11 yds to the Sthrn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
99.8%
Noah Cain run for 7 yds to the Sthrn 2Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Noah Cain 2 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 17END OF HALF
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Kendric Rhymes run for 1 yd to the Sthrn 26Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
99.9%
Besean McCray run for 4 yds to the Sthrn 30Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
99.9%
Besean McCray run for 4 yds to the Sthrn 30Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
99.9%
Kendric Rhymes run for 7 yds to the Sthrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
99.8%
Armoni Goodwin run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-5
99.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (West Weeks) to the LSU 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+5
99.8%
NUSSMEIER, Garrett pass to the left complete for 4 yards to GOODWIN, Armoni caught at the LSU16 and advanced to the LSU25 (LEWIS, Jordan). PENALTY SOU Offsides on GIVENS, Ckelby enforced 5 yards from the LSU21 to the LSU26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
99.8%
Jay Bramblett punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Chandler Whitfield at the Sthrn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 20 yds · 1:130% → 0%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.9%
Jerodd Sims run for 2 yds to the Sthrn 41Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+5
99.9%
Jerodd Sims run for 5 yds to the Sthrn 46Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+13
99.9%
Jerodd Sims run for 13 yds to the LSU 41 Jerodd Sims fumbled, recovered by LSU Greg Penn IIISimilar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+13
99.9%
Jerodd Sims run for 13 yds to the LSU 41 Jerodd Sims fumbled, recovered by LSU Greg Penn IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:26100% → 100%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
99.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 8 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+16
99.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 16 yds to the Sthrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
99.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 13 yds to the Sthrn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
99.9%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the Sthrn 19Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+10
99.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 10 yds to the Sthrn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.9%
Josh Williams run for 4 yds to the Sthrn 5Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.9%
SOUTHERN Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jordan Lewis) to the Sthrn 2Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Armoni Goodwin 2 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 21FUMBLE
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:480% → 0%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
99.9%
Kendric Rhymes run for 1 yd to the Sthrn 35Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
Kendric Rhymes run for 6 yds to the Sthrn 41 Kendric Rhymes fumbled, recovered by LSU Sage RyanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22INT TD
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:57100% → 100%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
99.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 13 yds to the Sthrn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
99.9%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the Sthrn 26Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+7
99.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 7 yds to the Sthrn 19Similar
Q3 7:42
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+6
99.9%
Noah Cain run for 6 yds to the Sthrn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
99.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Jack Mashburn for 10 yds to the Sthrn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
99.9%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Sthrn 8Similar
Q3 7:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
99.9%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the Sthrn 6Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-94
99.9%
Benny McCray 94 Yd Interception Return (Luke Jackson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:44100% → 100%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+14
99.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Evan Francioni for 14 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+14
99.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Evan Francioni for 14 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
99.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Noah Cain for 9 yds to the Sthrn 43Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 1
OPP 43
-2
99.9%
Noah Cain run for a loss of 2 yards to the Sthrn 45Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+6
99.9%
Noah Cain run for 6 yds to the Sthrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
99.9%
Armoni Goodwin run for 15 yds to the Sthrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
99.9%
Armoni Goodwin run for 7 yds to the Sthrn 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+16
99.9%
Armoni Goodwin run for 16 yds to the Sthrn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Armoni Goodwin run for no gain to the Sthrn 1Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Armoni Goodwin 1 Yd Run (Trey Finison Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 24TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 5:350% → 0%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
100.0%
Karl Ligon run for 7 yds to the Sthrn 28Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+12
100.0%
Besean McCray run for 12 yds to the Sthrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
100.0%
Karl Ligon run for 11 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
100.0%
Besean McCray pass complete to Karl Ligon for a loss of 2 yards to the Sthrn 49Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+15
100.0%
LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (Princeton Malbrue) to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
100.0%
Besean McCray pass complete to August Pitre Iii for 11 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-6
100.0%
Besean McCray pass complete to Chandler Whitfield for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 16
OPP 30
+29
100.0%
Besean McCray pass complete to Cornelius Dyson for 29 yds to the LSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Karl Ligon run for no gain to the LSU 1Similar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
100.0%
Besean McCray run for no gain to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Karl Ligon 1 Yd Run (Luke Jackson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 46 yds · 4:50100% → 100%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Noah Cain run for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
99.9%
Noah Cain run for 11 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
100.0%
Noah Cain run for 8 yds to the Sthrn 47Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+13
100.0%
Walker Howard run for 13 yds to the Sthrn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
100.0%
Nick Demas run for 2 yds to the Sthrn 32Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+1
100.0%
Nick Demas run for 1 yd to the Sthrn 31Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 7
OPP 31
-6
100.0%
Walker Howard sacked by Jordan Lewis for a loss of 6 yards to the Sthrn 37Similar
Q4 3:25
4TH & 13
OPP 37
+8
100.0%
Walker Howard run for 8 yds to the Sthrn 29Similar
Q4 3:25
4TH & 13
OPP 37
+8
100.0%
Walker Howard run for 8 yds to the Sthrn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SOUDrive 26FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:250% → 0%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
100.0%
Karl Ligon run for 11 yds to the Sthrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
100.0%
Karl Ligon run for 5 yds to the Sthrn 45Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+10
100.0%
Karl Ligon run for 10 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
100.0%
Besean McCray run for 15 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
100.0%
Besean McCray pass complete to Isaiah Taylor for 17 yds to the LSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
100.0%
Besean McCray pass complete to Gregory Perkins for 2 yds to the LSU 11Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 8
OPP 11
-1
100.0%
Besean McCray sacked by Lane Blue and Bryce Langston for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 12Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+29
100.0%
Luke Jackson 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 7:07
Micah Baskerville 29 Yd Interception Return (Damian Ramos Kick)
+0.2
TD · Q1 13:25
Jayden Daniels 18 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)
-0.1
TD · Q2 14:20
Brian Thomas Jr. 44 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)
+0.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com