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MSST

Mississippi State 16 at LSU 31

LSU
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:02 · Jay Bramblett punt for 55 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Home team on offense−2.2Pregame prior−5.6Garbage-time factor−0.7Score differential−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:14: Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 13 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK) — MSST win probability +6.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:46: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 8 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +9.9 pts (now 42%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:11: Jayden Daniels run for 3 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +22.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:11: MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line — MSST win probability +4.9 pts (now 41%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:53: Josh Williams run for 7 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +24.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 11 of 12MSST made the numbers' call on 13 of 17
  1. Q1 12:35LSU 4th & 15 at MSST 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:25LSU 4th & 15 at MSST 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:10MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:03LSU 4th & 5 at LSU 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:30MSST 4th & 1 at LSU 40, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    55.8%−1.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:04MSST 4th & 1 at LSU 40, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    55.8%−1.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:35LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  8. Q1 1:02LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 15:00MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 29, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.6%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 14:53MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 29, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.5%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 11:37MSST 4th & 12 at MSST 49, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  12. Q2 10:11LSU 4th & 2 at LSU 11, down 6
    Close callPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q2 7:30MSST 4th & 24 at MSST 39, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−2.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  14. Q2 6:01MSST 4th & 24 at MSST 39, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−2.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  15. Q2 3:40LSU 4th & 9 at LSU 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  16. Q2 3:08LSU 4th & 9 at LSU 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  17. Q2 0:26MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 49, up 6
    Close callPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q2 0:18MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 49, up 6
    Close callPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q3 13:45MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 44, up 6
    Close callPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%−0.9
    average punt
  20. Q3 13:29MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 44, up 6
    Close callPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%−0.9
    average punt
  21. Q3 10:56LSU 4th & 10 at MSST 18, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−1.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−8.6
    average punt
  22. Q3 6:31MSST 4th & 16 at LSU 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−3.5
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    46.8%−9.3
    average punt
  23. Q3 3:45LSU 4th & 5 at midfield, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    38.3%−0.4
    average punt
  24. Q3 2:20MSST 4th & 1 at LSU 42, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    64.2%−5.6
    30% to make
    Punt
    65.3%−4.6
    average punt
  25. Q3 2:17MSST 4th & 1 at LSU 42, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    63.9%−6.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−4.8
    average punt
  26. Q3 0:33LSU 4th & 9 at MSST 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    33.8%−2.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  27. Q4 12:54MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 31, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−1.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  28. Q4 7:25LSU 4th & 3 at MSST 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    61.0%−4.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    58.8%−6.5
    average punt
  29. Q4 6:18MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 17, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:30MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:14MSST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:46LSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:11LSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:53LSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.7
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:50LSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1PUNT
13 plays · 26 yds · 2:3043% → 43%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
42.7%
Armoni Goodwin run for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+18
42.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 18 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
42.9%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 40Similar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+13
42.9%
Jayden Daniels run for 13 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+3
43.4%
Armoni Goodwin run for 3 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
43.4%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 49Similar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 15
OPP 49
0
43.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 15
OPP 49
0
43.6%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 15
OPP 49
0
43.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Jack BechSimilar
Q1 12:35
4TH & 15
OPP 49
0
43.3%
Jay Bramblett punt for 36 yds, downed at the MisSt 13Similar
Q1 12:25
4TH & 15
OPP 49
0
43.3%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 4:5057% → 58%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
43.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 1 yd to the MisSt 14Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+5
43.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 5 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+3
43.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 1
OWN 22
+4
44.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
44.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 4 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+7
44.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
44.1%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+1
44.2%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+20
44.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 20 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
42.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 37 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:1743% → 42%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
42.8%
John Emery Jr. run for 1 yd to the LSU 21Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
42.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 7 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
42.3%
John Emery Jr. run for 1 yd to the LSU 29Similar
Q1 5:40
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-4
42.1%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the LSU 25Similar
Q1 5:03
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+22
41.8%
Jay Bramblett punt for 46 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 22 yds to the LSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2659% → 58%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
41.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for no gain to the LSU 49Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-9
41.1%
Will Rogers sacked by BJ Ojulari for a loss of 9 yards to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 19
OWN 42
+18
42.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 18 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q1 3:30
4TH & 1
OPP 40
-1
41.6%
Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 41Similar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 1
OPP 40
-1
41.6%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5344% → 42%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
43.5%
Armoni Goodwin run for no gain to the LSU 41Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-4
42.5%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Nathan Pickering for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 37Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 14
OWN 37
+8
41.5%
Jayden Daniels run for 8 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
41.7%
Similar
Q1 1:02
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
41.7%
Jay Bramblett punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:0958% → 58%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
42.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 9 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
41.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
41.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for no gain to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
41.4%
Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
42.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
42.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the MisSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1444% → 44%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
44.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Josh Williams for no gain to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
44.3%
Jayden Daniels run for no gain to the MisSt 29 Jayden Daniels fumbled, recovered by MisSt Tyrus WheatSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2359% → 59%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
41.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 10 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
39.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 6 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+6
39.4%
Will Rogers run for 6 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
39.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
39.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-2
39.2%
Will Rogers sacked by Sai'vion Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 49 Will Rogers fumbled, recovered by MisStSimilar
Q2 11:37
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
41.1%
Archer Trafford punt for 48 yds , Gregory Clayton Jr. returns for no gain to the LSU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2640% → 39%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
40.2%
Armoni Goodwin run for 5 yds to the LSU 8Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 5
OWN 8
0
40.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 5
OWN 8
+3
39.3%
Jayden Daniels run for 3 yds to the LSU 11Similar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 2
OWN 11
0
39.1%
Jay Bramblett punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MisSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 4:1061% → 61%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
38.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+6
38.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 1
50
+3
37.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
36.1%
Simeon Price run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 13
50
-10
36.5%
Will Rogers sacked by Harold Perkins Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 23
OWN 40
-1
38.2%
Jo'quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 7:30
4TH & 24
OWN 39
0
39.2%
George Georgopoulos punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 11Similar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 24
OWN 39
0
39.0%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:5339% → 36%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
38.5%
John Emery Jr. run for 3 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+10
38.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to John Emery Jr. for 10 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
38.5%
John Emery Jr. run for 1 yd to the LSU 25Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+2
38.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 7
OWN 27
-2
37.3%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Tyrus Wheat for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 25Similar
Q2 3:40
4TH & 9
OWN 25
+26
36.5%
Jay Bramblett punt for 49 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 26 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q2 3:08
4TH & 9
OWN 25
+26
36.4%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12TD
3 plays · 48 yds · 0:5466% → 74%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+35
34.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 35 yds to the LSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
33.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Caleb DuckingSimilar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
26.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 13 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 0:5929% → 42%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
29.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Josh Williams for 8 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+13
29.7%
Jayden Daniels run for 13 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
30.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Josh Williams for 3 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+15
30.3%
Jayden Daniels run for 15 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
30.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 8 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+20
32.0%
Jayden Daniels run for 20 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
41.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 8 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:2364% → 66%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
35.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 16 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
33.7%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 5
OWN 46
+3
33.4%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 2
OWN 49
0
32.8%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 2
OWN 49
0
33.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rufus HarveySimilar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
34.5%
George Georgopoulos punt for 40 yds, downed at the LSU 11Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
34.5%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
36.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:2164% → 64%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
36.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 11 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
35.3%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
35.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 8 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
34.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q3 13:45
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
35.9%
Archer Trafford punt for 43 yds, downed at the LSU 13Similar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
35.8%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 2:2439% → 45%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+14
38.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Armoni Goodwin for 14 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
39.2%
Armoni Goodwin run for 3 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+32
39.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 17 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
42.3%
Jayden Daniels run for 9 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+11
43.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 11 yds to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
43.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
43.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
41.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
43.7%
Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
41.9%
Similar
Q3 10:56
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+35
44.9%
Damian Ramos 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18FG
11 plays · 34 yds · 4:0959% → 65%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
41.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
41.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+24
40.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 24 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
38.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rufus HarveySimilar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
38.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+14
39.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 14 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
37.3%
Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 23Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+2
37.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 9
OPP 21
-7
39.1%
Will Rogers sacked by Harold Perkins Jr. and BJ Ojulari for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 28Similar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 16
OPP 28
+45
35.0%
Ben Raybon 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:4037% → 38%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to John Emery Jr. for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
37.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 15 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
40.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Mason TaylorSimilar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-6
38.6%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 39Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 16
OWN 39
+11
35.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 11 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 5
50
0
37.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:2871% → 69%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
50
+3
29.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
29.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+5
29.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 5 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 1
OPP 42
0
30.7%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:17
4TH & 1
OPP 42
0
30.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21FUMBLE
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:4441% → 34%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
40.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 12 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
42.3%
Jayden Daniels run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 12
OPP 48
0
40.0%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:11
3RD & 12
OPP 48
+3
35.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 3 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 0:33
4TH & 9
OPP 45
+35
33.8%
Jay Bramblett punt for 35 yds , Austin Williams returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 9 Austin Williams fumbled, recovered by LSU Slade RoySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2243% → 59%
Q3 0:33
1ST & 0
OPP 9
-5
42.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 14Similar
Q3 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+4
40.9%
Armoni Goodwin run for 4 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
41.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 7 yds to the MisSt 3Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
63.9%
Jayden Daniels run for 3 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+15
59.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1742% → 40%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for no gain to the MisSt 25Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
57.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Caleb DuckingSimilar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+1
60.3%
George Georgopoulos punt for 45 yds , Gregory Clayton Jr. returns for 1 yd to the LSU 32 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the LSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24TD
15 plays · 85 yds · 6:0160% → 93%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
59.5%
John Emery Jr. run for 4 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
59.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+10
58.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 10 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
60.6%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+9
60.1%
John Emery Jr. run for 9 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+10
62.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 10 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
65.3%
Jayden Daniels run for 6 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+1
66.5%
John Emery Jr. run for 1 yd to the MisSt 45Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+4
66.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 4 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
67.2%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
67.6%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+7
65.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Josh Williams for 7 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 7:25
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+27
67.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 27 yds to the MisSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
92.7%
Josh Williams run for 7 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2210% → 8%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
89.8%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
90.9%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
91.4%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:18
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
91.7%
Archer Trafford punt for 42 yds, downed at the LSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 26TD
4 plays · 59 yds · 1:2893% → 98%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
92.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
93.7%
John Emery Jr. run for 2 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+10
94.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 10 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
97.9%
Armoni Goodwin run for 47 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 27INT
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:343% → 4%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
96.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 18 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
96.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 4 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+10
96.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 10 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
96.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 6 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 4
OPP 27
-19
96.4%
Will Rogers pass intercepted Jay Ward return for 19 yds to the LSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 28END OF GAME
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:4098% → 99%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
98.4%
Armoni Goodwin run for 8 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+3
98.4%
Armoni Goodwin run for 3 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
98.7%
John Emery Jr. run for 4 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
98.8%
John Emery Jr. run for 3 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+3
98.8%
John Emery Jr. run for 3 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:53
Josh Williams run for 7 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)
+24.9
TD · Q4 14:11
Jayden Daniels run for 3 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)
+22.8
TD · Q2 0:46
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 8 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)
+9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com