LSU

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1028th
  Defense+0.0196th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.0%41st
  Defense35.6%96th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.052nd
  Defense+1.2239th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1048th
  Defense0.0080th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1328th
  Defense+0.0694th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense46.4%38th
  Defense39.1%98th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense31.3%25th
  Defense30.0%76th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0770th
  Defense2.4986th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.7%87th
  Defense24.4%91st
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.6%18th
  Defense2.1%58th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what LSU allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   WIS
2. W
   SHSU
3. W
   ULM
4. L
   MSST
5. W
   NMSU
6. L
   AUB
7. W
   FLA
8. W
   UK
9. W
   MISS
10. L
    ALA
11. L
    ARK
12. W
    TA&M
13. L
    ND

Bars above the line: better than expected for LSU.

Players, 2014

1. Anthony JenningsQB258 plays · +0.179 pts/play · 111th of 199 QBs
   0.86WAR0.42 to 1.30
2. Leonard FournetteRB147 plays · +0.151 pts/play · 35th of 350 RBs
   0.41WAR0.28 to 0.54
3. Terrence MageeRB99 plays · +0.084 pts/play · 152nd of 350 RBs
   0.16WAR0.09 to 0.22
4. Kenny HilliardRB55 plays · +0.140 pts/play · 163rd of 350 RBs
   0.14WAR0.10 to 0.18
5. Travin DuralWR64 plays · +0.084 pts/play · 200th of 469 WRs
   0.10WAR0.01 to 0.21
6. Brandon HarrisQB27 plays · +0.155 pts/play · 183rd of 199 QBs
   0.08WAR0.02 to 0.13
7. Malachi DupreWR19 plays · +0.195 pts/play · 287th of 469 WRs
   0.07WAR0.04 to 0.10
8. Darrel WilliamsRB30 plays · +0.108 pts/play · 251st of 350 RBs
   0.06WAR0.04 to 0.08

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares LSU's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than LSU's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 6 clear-cut ones account for 0.17 of the 0.21 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs NDQ4 5:41 4th & 1 at LSU 40, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−5.6 pts
2. vs ALAQ4 1:56 4th & 3 at LSU 42, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−4.4 pts
3. vs NDQ4 11:56 4th & 2 at ND 23, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.7 pts
4. at FLAQ3 13:24 4th & 1 at LSU 34, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
5. at TA&MQ3 7:25 4th & 2 at TA&M 10, up 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
6. vs MSSTQ3 10:47 4th & 1 at LSU 32, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
7. vs ALAQ2 2:26 4th & 4 at ALA 49, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
8. vs MISSQ2 2:47 4th & 4 at MISS 4, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

67th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up LSU's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   WIS
2. W

   SHSU
3. W

   ULM
4. L

   MSST
5. W

   NMSU
6. L

   AUB
7. W

   FLA
8. W

   UK
9. W

   MISS
10. L

    ALA
11. L

    ARK
12. W

    TA&M
13. L

    ND

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at LSU's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.07
• Possession & field position−0.07
• Clock+0.13
• Timeouts−0.13
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.01

Game by game

• WISW 28-24 vs WIS60% → 96%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +32, Timeouts +3
• SHSUW 56-0 vs SHSU99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +3
• ULMW 31-0 vs ULM97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +5
• MSSTL 29-34 vs MSST68% → 16%Before kickoff +18 · On the field −53: Scoreboard −44, Clock −2
• NMSUW 63-7 vs NMSU99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• AUBL 7-41 at AUB24% → 0%Before kickoff −26 · On the field −24: Scoreboard −26
• FLAW 30-27 at FLA52% → 94%Before kickoff +2 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +49, Clock +3
• UKW 41-3 vs UK77% → 100%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +25, Timeouts +1
• MISSW 10-7 vs MISS41% → 94%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +54: Scoreboard +37, Timeouts +3
• ALAL 13-20 vs ALA29% → 18%Before kickoff −21 · On the field −12: Scoreboard −32, Timeouts −15
• ARKL 0-17 at ARK46% → 1%Before kickoff −4 · On the field −45: Scoreboard −40, Timeouts −2
• TA&MW 23-17 at TA&M55% → 94%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +39: Scoreboard +48, Clock +3
• NDL 28-31 vs ND69% → 5%Before kickoff +19 · On the field −64: Scoreboard −53, Clock −3

Points of win probability, from LSU's side.

Closest call

LSU 37-34 FLA (2020) - LSU dropped to a 6.6% win probability before pulling it out.