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LSU

LSU 21 at Auburn 17

AUB
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:00 · Jay Bramblett punt for 65 yds, downed at the Aub 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Pregame prior−17.4Home team on offense+2.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:04: Robby Ashford pass complete to Camden Brown for 18 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +9.7 pts (now 51%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:15: Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +9.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:32: John Emery Jr. run for 20 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +21.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:31: Tank Bigsby run for 23 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST down — AUB win probability +14.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:14: Josh Williams run for 6 yds to the Aub 39 — LSU win probability +22.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 5 of 8LSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 12:05LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:30AUB 4th & 14 at AUB 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:33LSU 4th & 7 at AUB 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    61.9%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:12AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 30, up 7
    Close callPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:00LSU 4th & 17 at LSU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:10LSU 4th & 19 at LSU 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−3.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:38AUB 4th & 4 at LSU 12, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.8%−0.5
    86% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−9.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:45LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:56AUB 4th & 9 at LSU 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    51.9%−6.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:39LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−3.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:27AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 40, up 3
    Close callPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:30LSU 4th & 4 at AUB 48, down 3
    Close callPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:06AUB 4th & 10 at LSU 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    53.8%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    53.5%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:17AUB 4th & 1 at LSU 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    34.2%−4.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    21.0%−17.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:50LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−6.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:11AUB 4th & 13 at AUB 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−2.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:31LSU 4th & 8 at LSU 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−2.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2LSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:57AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:04AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:15LSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:32LSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 1:5629% → 30%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
28.7%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Koy MooreSimilar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
29.0%
Ja'Varrius Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+10
29.1%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Koy Moore for 10 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
29.3%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
29.6%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+53
30.2%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 53 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4070% → 69%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.3%
Jayden Daniels run for no gain to the LSU 25Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
30.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
30.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Mason TaylorSimilar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
31.0%
Jay Bramblett punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:3531% → 32%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
31.0%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Ja'Varrius Johnson) to the Aub 24Similar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 15
OWN 24
0
31.0%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 15
OWN 24
+3
31.0%
Robby Ashford run for 3 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 12
OWN 27
-2
31.7%
Robby Ashford sacked by BJ Ojulari for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 25Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 14
OWN 25
+60
31.9%
Oscar Chapman punt for 50 yds, downed at the AUBURN 25 LSU Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the LSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 3:4868% → 65%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
32.2%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+7
32.5%
Josh Williams run for 7 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
33.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
33.0%
Josh Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
33.3%
Jayden Daniels run for no gain to the LSU 38Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
33.8%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+10
34.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 10 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
34.2%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
34.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
34.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brian Thomas Jr.Similar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
35.4%
Jay Bramblett punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Keionte Scott at the Aub 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:1736% → 37%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
35.6%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+9
35.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 9 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+2
36.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
36.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 7 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 3
OWN 31
-1
37.3%
Robby Ashford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 30Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
37.2%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:12
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
37.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jack Bech at the LSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0763% → 60%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
37.4%
Josh Williams run for 15 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
37.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 3 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+1
37.2%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-5
37.9%
LSU Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the LSU 40Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 11
OWN 40
-6
38.5%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Colby Wooden for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 2:00
4TH & 17
OWN 34
0
39.7%
Jay Bramblett punt for 65 yds, downed at the Aub 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7TD
6 plays · 99 yds · 2:4139% → 51%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
39.3%
Robby Ashford run for 4 yds to the Aub 5Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 6
OWN 5
0
39.6%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Aub 5Similar
Q1 0:31
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+20
39.8%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 20 yds to the Aub 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
41.1%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 21 Tank Bigsby fumbled, recovered by Aub Robby AshfordSimilar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+61
41.1%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 61 yds to the LSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
50.8%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Camden Brown for 18 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:5053% → 49%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-11
47.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 4 yds to the LSU 30 LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the LSU 15Similar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 21
OWN 15
0
48.2%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 21
OWN 15
-4
49.0%
Jayden Daniels run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 11Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 25
OWN 11
+6
49.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 6 yds to the LSU 17Similar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 19
OWN 17
+15
50.7%
Jay Bramblett punt for 58 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 15 yds to the Aub 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 2:2454% → 61%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
53.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 7 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+4
54.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+31
55.3%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Koy Moore for 31 yds to the LSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
55.8%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Kilian Zierer) to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 15
OPP 23
0
56.4%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+11
56.3%
Robby Ashford pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 11 yds to the LSU 12Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
54.7%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+29
61.3%
Anders Carlson 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:3341% → 39%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
59.3%
Josh Williams run for 9 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+1
58.8%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
60.7%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Derick Hall for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 23 Jayden Daniels fumbled, forced by Derick Hall, recovered by LSUSimilar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+17
60.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 17 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
59.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 5 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-1
58.7%
Noah Cain run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
60.6%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:45
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+27
61.4%
Jay Bramblett punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Keionte Scott at the AUBURN 14 LSU Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (15 Yards) to the Aub 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11FUMBLE TD
1 play · -6 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+23
49.5%
Robby Ashford sacked by BJ Ojulari for a loss of 6 yards Robby Ashford fumbled, forced by BJ Ojulari, recovered by LSU Jay Ward , return for 0 yards , return for 23 yds, (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12MISSED FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 4:2950% → 56%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
49.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
51.0%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 9 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
52.7%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 1 yd to the Aub 41Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+8
52.7%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Koy Moore for 8 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
52.6%
Robby Ashford run for 2 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+25
54.8%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Omari Kelly for 25 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
56.2%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
57.3%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
56.8%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tank Bigsby for no gain to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+40
55.8%
Anders Carlson 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13TD
16 plays · 77 yds · 1:3344% → 57%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
56.4%
Jayden Daniels run for 3 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-3
56.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Josh Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+15
57.3%
AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
54.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+12
55.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
50
0
53.2%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
50
+4
53.9%
John Emery Jr. run for 4 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+6
55.8%
Jayden Daniels run for 6 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
55.6%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+39
55.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to John Emery Jr. for 39 yds to the Aub 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.2%
John Emery Jr. run for no gain to the Aub 1Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
47.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1753% → 50%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.2%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
48.4%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Marcus Bragg for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 23Similar
Q3 13:39
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
50.4%
Jay Bramblett punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Keionte Scott at the Aub 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0350% → 49%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
49.6%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Aub 33Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
49.5%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+7
48.1%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 7 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q3 12:27
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
48.7%
Oscar Chapman punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jack Bech at the LSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:4851% → 51%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
48.8%
Noah Cain run for 7 yds to the LSU 17Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+10
48.8%
Jayden Daniels run for 10 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
48.9%
Noah Cain run for 9 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+10
47.3%
John Emery Jr. run for 10 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
46.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 6 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
46.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
47.0%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:30
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
49.3%
Jay Bramblett punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Keionte Scott at the Aub 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 44 yds · 1:5452% → 53%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+24
52.3%
Robby Ashford run for 24 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
55.0%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
54.6%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Aub 43Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-15
52.8%
AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Aub 28Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 25
OWN 28
+35
51.2%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tyler Fromm for 35 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
57.4%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
57.2%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
56.1%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:06
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
52.5%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 3:2250% → 69%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
49.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 6 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+12
47.9%
Jayden Daniels run for 12 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
47.1%
Josh Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 46Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+10
48.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 10 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
47.4%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
47.4%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Aub 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
46.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 24Similar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+4
48.1%
Josh Williams run for 4 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+20
26.4%
John Emery Jr. run for 20 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+15
30.9%
AUBURN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20INT
16 plays · 65 yds · 6:2234% → 43%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
34.0%
Robby Ashford pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 27 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
39.0%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 9 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+2
39.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
39.4%
AUBURN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the LSU 42Similar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 15
OPP 42
0
37.2%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 15
OPP 42
0
36.9%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:51
3RD & 15
OPP 42
+4
35.1%
Robby Ashford pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 4 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q3 0:11
4TH & 11
OPP 38
+10
33.8%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
41.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 11 yds to the LSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
41.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
41.8%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+6
39.6%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Koy Moore for 6 yds to the LSU 8Similar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+3
37.4%
Robby Ashford run for 3 yds to the LSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
42.2%
Robby Ashford run for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 10 Robby Ashford fumbled, recovered by Aub Robby AshfordSimilar
Q4 12:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
42.6%
Koy Moore pass intercepted Harold Perkins Jr. return for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 13 LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (4 Yards) to the LSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:0570% → 69%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
30.2%
John Emery Jr. run for 3 yds to the LSU 8Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+2
29.1%
John Emery Jr. run for 2 yds to the LSU 10Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+5
30.0%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (5 Yards) to the LSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
28.2%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Mason Taylor) to the LSU 10Similar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+3
28.2%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 12
OWN 13
0
28.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 12
OWN 13
0
30.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 12
OWN 13
+4
31.5%
Jay Bramblett punt for 44 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 4 yds to the Aub 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3440% → 33%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
39.7%
Robby Ashford run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 43 Robby Ashford fumbled, recovered by Aub Robby AshfordSimilar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+1
35.8%
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd to the Aub 44Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 13
OWN 44
0
33.9%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
32.5%
Oscar Chapman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jack Bech at the LSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23FUMBLE
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:3573% → 73%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
27.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 3 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+5
25.1%
Josh Williams run for 5 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+2
24.9%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
24.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Jack Bech for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
25.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+1
26.6%
Jay Bramblett punt for 39 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 1 yd to the Aub 35 Keionte Scott fumbled, recovered by LSU Kayshon BoutteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0782% → 83%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
18.1%
John Emery Jr. run for 5 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-2
17.4%
John Emery Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 32 John Emery Jr. fumbled, forced by Donovan Kaufman, recovered by Aub Jayson JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25INT
5 plays · 32 yds · 2:1332% → 35%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+23
31.5%
Tank Bigsby run for 23 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
37.5%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 2 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+8
37.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 8 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
39.3%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 36Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 11
OPP 36
-30
34.9%
Robby Ashford pass intercepted Greg Brooks Jr. return for 30 yds to the Aub 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:1488% → 95%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
12.4%
Josh Williams run for 6 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+1
12.3%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the Aub 38Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+3
12.1%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
7.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 36Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 11
OPP 36
-2
5.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 38Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 38
-2
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:14
Josh Williams run for 6 yds to the Aub 39
-22.5
TD · Q3 3:32
John Emery Jr. run for 20 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)
-21.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:31
Tank Bigsby run for 23 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST down
+14.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com