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MISS

Ole Miss 20 at LSU 45

LSU
2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:02 · Jaxson Dart sacked by Mekhi Wingo for a loss of 15 yards to the LSU 40 Jaxson Dart fumbled, forced by Mekhi Wingo, recovered by Miss Casey Kelly , return for 0 yards
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:11: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 34 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:20: Jayden Daniels run for 3 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +10.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:25: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 1 yd for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +14.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:18: Jayden Daniels run for 11 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +14.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:36: Jayden Daniels run for 17 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +5.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 8:44LSU 4th & 6 at MISS 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    48.7%−1.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:54LSU 4th & 8 at MISS 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−2.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:57MISS 4th & 6 at LSU 14, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    51.6%−3.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:22MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:08MISS 4th & 21 at LSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−2.0
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    45.3%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:59LSU 4th & 9 at LSU 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:14LSU 4th & 5 at LSU 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−1.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:23MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−2.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:33LSU 4th & 1 at MISS 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%−3.6
    56% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−5.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:14MISS 4th & 1 at LSU 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    34.6%−3.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−3.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:41MISS 4th & 16 at MISS 35, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−1.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:36MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 43, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:23MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:01MISS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:11LSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:20LSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:25LSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:18LSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:36LSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:05LSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3744% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.6%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
55.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 9 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+24
55.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 24 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
55.6%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 38Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+37
55.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 37 yds to the LSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 0
OPP 1
-5
55.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the LSU 6Similar
Q1 13:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
55.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 4:3455% → 55%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
55.2%
Josh Williams run for 8 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
55.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 7 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
55.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 5 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+8
55.1%
Josh Williams run for 8 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
55.0%
Jayden Daniels run for 13 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
55.1%
Jayden Daniels run for no gain to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+15
55.0%
Daniels, Jayden pass incomplete to Thomas Jr., Brian, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Igbinosun, Davison) 15 yards to the OLEMISS19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
55.0%
Josh Williams run for 5 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+7
54.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 7 yds to the Miss 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
54.9%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the Miss 6Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
54.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q1 8:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
54.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q1 8:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
55.2%
Damian Ramos 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 2:3745% → 50%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
54.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 28 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
54.2%
Dart, Jaxson pass incomplete, PENALTY LSU pass interference 6 yards to the LSU41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
54.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 4
OPP 35
-7
53.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 3 yds to the LSU 32 OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jonathan Mingo) to the LSU 42Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+8
53.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 8 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+5
53.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
53.5%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (7 Yards) to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
53.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 4
OPP 16
0
53.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+2
53.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+8
54.1%
Dart, Jaxson pass incomplete to Kelly, Casey, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Ojulari, BJ) 8 yards to the LSU6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q1 6:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
53.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the LSU 3Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
50.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4MISSED FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:5851% → 49%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
51.3%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+20
51.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Josh Williams for 5 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+19
51.9%
Armoni Goodwin run for 19 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
52.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 3 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-6
52.0%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Cedric Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 13
OPP 30
+5
49.9%
Jayden Daniels run for 5 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 2:54
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+42
49.2%
Damian Ramos 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5FG
9 plays · 61 yds · 2:4951% → 57%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
49.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
48.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
48.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 8 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
48.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 16 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+27
47.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 27 yds to the LSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
47.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the LSU 17Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+4
46.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 4 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 5
OPP 13
-1
46.4%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 14Similar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
43.4%
Jonathan Cruz 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3944% → 52%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
44.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 17 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
44.7%
Armoni Goodwin run for 5 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-5
43.9%
Daniels, Jayden pass complete to Storz, Nick for 20 yards to the OLEMISS33, PENALTY LSU ineligible downfield on pass (Campbell, Will) 5 yards to the LSU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
43.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Josh Williams for 11 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
43.5%
Jayden Daniels run for 13 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
51.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 34 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4352% → 52%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
48.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
48.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 9 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 11:22
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
47.7%
Fraser Masin punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:5348% → 60%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+38
48.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 38 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
50.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 7 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+4
51.2%
Armoni Goodwin run for 4 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
50.6%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Cedric Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 31Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+8
50.0%
Jayden Daniels run for 8 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+20
49.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 20 yds to the Miss 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
60.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 3 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9FG
13 plays · 45 yds · 4:0646% → 48%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
54.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
53.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+17
54.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 17 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
51.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+3
51.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-6
51.2%
Jordan Watkins pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 4 yds to the LSU 40 OLE MISS Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 16
50
+31
52.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 31 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-15
49.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the LSU 34Similar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 25
OPP 34
+10
50.7%
Jaxson Dart run for 10 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 15
OPP 24
0
50.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Casey KellySimilar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 15
OPP 24
-6
52.4%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Harold Perkins Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 4:08
4TH & 21
OPP 30
+48
51.7%
Jonathan Cruz 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:0251% → 50%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
50.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 7 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
52.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Armoni Goodwin for 4 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
51.5%
Jayden Daniels run for 6 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+6
53.0%
Armoni Goodwin run for 6 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
53.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Josh Williams for 9 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 1
OPP 43
-4
53.6%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Khari Coleman for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 5
OPP 47
-4
52.7%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Jared Ivey for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 49Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 9
OWN 49
+3
49.6%
Jay Bramblett punt for 42 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for 3 yds to the Miss 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:3451% → 52%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
49.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 8 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+5
48.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:4151% → 50%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
51.1%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
50.7%
Jayden Daniels run for 8 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
51.5%
Josh Williams run for 5 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
53.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
51.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+6
49.5%
Jay Bramblett punt for 42 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for 6 yds to the Miss 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4451% → 49%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
48.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the Miss 23Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
48.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Quinshon JudkinsSimilar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
50.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Casey KellySimilar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
51.4%
Fraser Masin punt for 27 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14TD
11 plays · 50 yds · 3:5453% → 69%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
50
+5
53.4%
Jayden Daniels run for 5 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+6
53.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 6 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
53.7%
Jayden Daniels run for 3 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
53.8%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Mason TaylorSimilar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+6
53.1%
Josh Williams run for 6 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 10:33
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+8
51.6%
Josh Williams run for 8 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
55.0%
Josh Williams run for 9 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+11
55.0%
Daniels, Jayden pass incomplete to Nabers, Malik, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference 11 yards to the OLEMISS2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q3 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
55.1%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the Miss 1Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
55.0%
Jayden Daniels run for no gain to the Miss 1Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 1 yd for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15DOWNS
15 plays · 40 yds · 4:1635% → 41%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
65.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 22Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+10
65.9%
Dart, Jaxson rush for 1 yard to the OLEMISS23, PENALTY LSU holding (Garner, Mekhi) 10 yards to the OLEMISS32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+23
64.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 23 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
61.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Quinshon JudkinsSimilar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+9
61.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
61.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the LSU 36Similar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+1
63.3%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
60.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+13
60.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 13 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
59.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+3
60.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+5
61.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the LSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
59.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the LSU 9Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
59.5%
Jaxson Dart pass intercepted, touchback. Joe Foucha return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:4068% → 88%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
68.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 17 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
69.7%
Josh Williams run for 5 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+4
71.3%
Josh Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
70.8%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
72.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 12 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
72.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 14 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
74.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brian Thomas Jr.Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+4
74.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 4 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+11
72.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 11 yds to the Miss 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
87.7%
Jayden Daniels run for 11 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17PUNT
12 plays · 20 yds · 2:2515% → 12%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
84.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jonathan MingoSimilar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
85.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Quinshon JudkinsSimilar
Q4 13:56
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
86.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Malik HeathSimilar
Q4 13:56
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+15
86.7%
LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Harold Perkins Jr.) to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
84.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 11 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
83.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+2
82.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 3
OWN 48
-10
83.4%
Dart, Jaxson rush for 11 yards to the LSU41, PENALTY OLEMISS holding 10 yards to the OLEMISS38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+2
86.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 2 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 11
OWN 40
-5
87.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Miss 35Similar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 16
OWN 35
0
88.3%
Fraser Masin punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:5988% → 98%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
87.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 12 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
88.4%
Armoni Goodwin run for 6 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+2
90.5%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+7
90.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 7 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
91.5%
Jayden Daniels run for 10 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+26
91.9%
Jayden Daniels run for 11 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Otis Reese) to the Miss 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
97.5%
Jayden Daniels run for 17 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:493% → 3%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+19
96.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 4 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (Sai'vion Jones) to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
96.4%
Dayton Wade run for 2 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
96.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Dayton WadeSimilar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
96.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q4 7:36
4TH & 8
OWN 43
-5
96.7%
Jaxson Dart sacked by BJ Ojulari and Mekhi Wingo for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 38 yds · 5:2498% → 100%
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
97.7%
Armoni Goodwin run for 6 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+5
97.9%
Armoni Goodwin run for 5 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
98.2%
Armoni Goodwin run for 4 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+10
98.3%
Jayden Daniels run for 10 yds to the Miss 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
98.5%
Josh Williams run for 5 yds to the Miss 8Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+4
98.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 4 yds to the Miss 4Similar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+3
98.7%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21END OF GAME
7 plays · 35 yds · 1:580% → 0%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Malik Heath for 1 yd to the Miss 26Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+18
99.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 18 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
99.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 17 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
99.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 9 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+5
99.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
99.7%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Mekhi Wingo for a loss of 15 yards to the LSU 40 Jaxson Dart fumbled, forced by Mekhi Wingo, recovered by Miss Casey Kelly , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:18
Jayden Daniels run for 11 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)
+14.9
TD · Q3 8:25
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 1 yd for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)
+14.4
TD · Q2 8:20
Jayden Daniels run for 3 yds for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)
+10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com