Try the model
TENN

Tennessee 40 at LSU 13

LSU
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:54 · Jay Bramblett punt for 66 yds, downed at the Tenn 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 127Home team on offense−28.6Score differential−17.6Garbage-time factor−8.9Pregame prior−3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 2:26: Chase McGrath 38 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +2.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:39: Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 45 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +12.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:05: Josh Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +10.0 pts (now 35%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Chase McGrath 32 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +3.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:47: Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 14 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK) — TENN win probability +9.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TENN made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:31LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:08TENN 4th & 2 at LSU 18, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.7%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:48LSU 4th & 4 at TENN 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.3%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    43.3%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:26TENN 4th & 8 at LSU 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:46LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 46, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    38.5%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:15LSU 4th & 12 at TENN 42, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    28.8%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:53TENN 4th & 2 at LSU 43, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    76.9%−1.8
    28% to make
    Punt
    77.5%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:19TENN 4th & 10 at LSU 38, up 20
    Close callPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    78.6%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:57TENN 4th & 7 at LSU 33, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:23LSU 4th & 10 at TENN 45, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.7%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    29.9%
    25% to make
    Punt
    29.7%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:54LSU 4th & 15 at LSU 30, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−2.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:37TENN 4th & 6 at TENN 23, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:32LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 36, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:50TENN 4th & 1 at LSU 25, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%−0.6
    66% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−2.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:15TENN 4th & 3 at LSU 39, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%−0.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:39TENN 4th & 4 at LSU 14, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:46TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:39TENN Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:05LSU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:47TENN Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:13TENN Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:32LSU Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1TD
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:5959% → 59%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
40.8%
Jabari Small run for 7 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+4
40.8%
Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
40.9%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 11 yds to the LSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
40.9%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the LSU 2Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 0
OPP 2
+1
40.9%
LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (1 Yards) to the LSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.6%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5441% → 41%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
40.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
40.7%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
40.6%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+58
40.6%
Jay Bramblett punt for 52 yds , Dee Williams returns for 58 yds to the LSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0760% → 60%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
40.3%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 8 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 2
OPP 18
0
40.2%
Jabari Small run for no gain to the LSU 18Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 2
OPP 18
0
40.2%
Jabari Small run for no gain to the LSU 18Similar
Q1 11:08
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+35
40.2%
Chase McGrath 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4DOWNS
14 plays · 73 yds · 4:5740% → 40%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
40.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 1 yd to the LSU 17Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+1
40.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd to the LSU 18Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 8
OWN 18
-5
40.0%
LSU Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the LSU 13Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 13
OWN 13
+14
40.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jack Bech for 14 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
40.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Josh Williams for 19 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
40.3%
Josh Williams run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 6
50
+7
40.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 7 yds to the Tenn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+23
40.7%
Jayden Daniels run for 8 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jeremy Banks) to the Tenn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
41.1%
John Emery Jr. run for no gain to the Tenn 20Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
41.1%
John Emery Jr. run for 2 yds to the Tenn 18Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+4
40.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 4 yds to the Tenn 14Similar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+3
40.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 3 yds to the Tenn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5FG
11 plays · 68 yds · 3:1461% → 65%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
39.2%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jabari Small for 3 yds to the Tenn 14Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+11
39.1%
Hendon Hooker run for 11 yds to the Tenn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.0%
Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+25
38.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Bru McCoy for 25 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
38.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Bru McCoy for 12 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
37.9%
Jaylen Wright run for 9 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+2
37.8%
Jaylen Wright run for 2 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
37.7%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+2
37.7%
Jaylen Wright run for 2 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 8
OPP 21
0
37.7%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q1 2:26
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+38
35.1%
Chase McGrath 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6DOWNS
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:1437% → 37%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
36.6%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Joshua Josephs for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 18Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+9
36.3%
Jayden Daniels run for 9 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
35.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 10 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
36.6%
Emery Jr., John rush for 10 yards to the LSU47, PENALTY LSU holding (Jones, Emery) 10 yards to the LSU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+7
36.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 7 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+12
35.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 12 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
36.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 1
OWN 46
-1
36.5%
Josh Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7TD
1 play · 45 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
24.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 45 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:1828% → 27%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
28.2%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
27.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Mason TaylorSimilar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+30
27.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 15 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Kamal Hadden) to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
28.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 7 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 3
OPP 33
-1
28.9%
Jayden Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 34Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 4
OPP 34
-8
27.8%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Byron Young and Roman Harrison for a loss of 8 yards to the Tenn 42Similar
Q2 12:15
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
26.6%
Jay Bramblett punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9PUNT
15 plays · 42 yds · 3:4178% → 76%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
22.2%
Hendon Hooker run for 5 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
21.8%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
35.6%
Bru McCoy run for 3 yds to the Tenn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
35.5%
Hendon Hooker run for 2 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+15
35.5%
Hooker, Hendon pass incomplete to Keyton, Ramel, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Richardson, Colby) 15 yards to the TENNESSEE49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENNESSEE.Similar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
33.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Bru McCoy for 5 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+1
32.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+9
32.5%
Hendon Hooker run for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 43 Hendon Hooker fumbled, forced by Greg Brooks Jr., recovered by Tenn Dylan Sampson , return for 9 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q2 8:53
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+5
25.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Princeton Fant for 5 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
22.4%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
22.4%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
23.7%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
23.8%
Paxton Brooks punt for 34 yds, downed at the LSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10TD
13 plays · 96 yds · 4:4530% → 35%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+12
29.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 12 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+16
30.0%
Jayden Daniels run for 16 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
30.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 9 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 1
OWN 41
0
27.4%
John Emery Jr. run for no gain to the LSU 41Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
27.0%
John Emery Jr. run for 2 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
26.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+20
26.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 20 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
26.8%
LSU Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 42Similar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+27
25.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 17 yds to the Tenn 25 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Holding (Kamal Hadden) to the Tenn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
26.4%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the Tenn 14Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 9
OPP 14
-4
26.0%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Bryson Eason and Byron Young for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 18Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 13
OPP 18
+17
24.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 17 yds to the Tenn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.6%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11MISSED FG
13 plays · 40 yds · 1:5872% → 78%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
27.9%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+25
27.8%
Jabari Small run for 25 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
25.8%
Jabari Small run for 6 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+3
25.1%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+3
19.9%
Hendon Hooker run for 3 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
20.5%
Wright, Jaylen rush for 5 yards to the LSU31, PENALTY TENNESSEE holding (Carvin, Jerome) 10 yards to the LSU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 20
OPP 46
+5
20.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Bru McCoy for 5 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+6
20.6%
Jaylen Wright run for 6 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+2
20.4%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 2 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+50
22.1%
Chase McGrath 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:2030% → 30%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+22
29.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 22 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
31.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
31.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
30.3%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Josh WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 10
OPP 45
-8
29.7%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Byron Young for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13FG
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:1780% → 85%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
19.8%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jalin HyattSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
19.8%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Princeton FantSimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+32
19.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Bru McCoy for 32 yds to the LSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
18.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+32
14.7%
Chase McGrath 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 2:5880% → 93%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
20.5%
Hooker, Hendon pass incomplete to White, Squirrel, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Ward, Jay) 15 yards to the TENNESSEE39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENNESSEE.Similar
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
19.4%
Hendon Hooker run for 4 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
19.2%
Squirrel White run for 5 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+1
19.3%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Squirrel White for 1 yd to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
18.1%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 44Similar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+12
18.8%
Jaylen Wright run for 12 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+2
17.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 2 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+2
17.3%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+26
17.0%
Hendon Hooker run for 26 yds to the LSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
7.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 14 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:4612% → 8%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
12.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 10 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
12.5%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
12.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kayshon BoutteSimilar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-7
8.7%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Byron Young and Roman Harrison for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
7.9%
Jay Bramblett punt for 66 yds, downed at the Tenn 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:0393% → 94%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
7.2%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the Tenn 6Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 8
OWN 6
0
7.1%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 8
OWN 6
+13
7.2%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Bru McCoy for 13 yds to the Tenn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
6.7%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Jacob Warren) to the Tenn 10Similar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 19
OWN 10
+2
5.9%
Hendon Hooker run for 2 yds to the Tenn 12Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 17
OWN 12
+6
5.7%
Hendon Hooker run for 6 yds to the Tenn 18 Hendon Hooker fumbled, recovered by Tenn Cooper MaysSimilar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 11
OWN 18
+5
5.8%
Hooker, Hendon pass incomplete to Hyatt, Jalin, PENALTY LSU substitution infraction 5 yards to the TENNESSEE23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
5.6%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Bru McCoySimilar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
5.7%
Paxton Brooks punt for 49 yds, downed at the LSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:027% → 6%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
6.8%
Daniels, Jayden pass incomplete to Nabers, Malik, PENALTY TENNESSEE holding (Hadden, Kamal) 10 yards to the LSU38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
6.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+6
6.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 6 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-4
6.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Josh Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 36Similar
Q3 5:32
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
5.9%
Jay Bramblett punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Dee Williams at the Tenn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18TD
9 plays · 92 yds · 2:5796% → 99%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+48
4.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Bru McCoy for 48 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
4.1%
Jaylen Wright run for 10 yds to the LSU 34 Jaylen Wright fumbled, recovered by TennSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
3.9%
Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+4
3.6%
Hendon Hooker run for 4 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+1
3.6%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 2:50
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+3
3.8%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
3.2%
Hooker, Hendon pass incomplete to Keyton, Ramel, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Richardson, Colby) 15 yards to the LSU7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENNESSEE.Similar
Q3 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
3.2%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
1.1%
Jabari Small run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 5:161% → 3%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.3%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
1.3%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Jaray JenkinsSimilar
Q3 1:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
1.2%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the LSU 33Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+20
1.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Noah Cain for 20 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
1.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 7 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+10
1.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 10 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
1.0%
Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd to the Tenn 29Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 9
OPP 29
-10
0.9%
Daniels, Jayden pass complete to Nabers, Malik for 29 yards to the TENNESSEE0, PENALTY LSU holding (Jones, Emery) 10 yards to the TENNESSEE39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 19
OPP 39
+4
0.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 4 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 15
OPP 35
+5
0.8%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jeremy Banks) to the Tenn 30Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+12
0.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 12 yds to the Tenn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
0.8%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the Tenn 17Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
0.8%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+2
0.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 2 yds to the Tenn 15Similar
Q4 12:24
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+13
0.5%
Daniels, Jayden pass incomplete to Nabers, Malik, PENALTY TENNESSEE pass interference (Charles, Christian) 13 yards to the TENNESSEE2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q4 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
0.5%
Jayden Daniels run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 5Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
3.2%
Kayshon Boutte 5 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20FG
15 plays · 81 yds · 8:3198% → 100%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
2.1%
Jabari Small run for no gain to the Tenn 5Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+49
1.9%
Jabari Small run for 49 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
1.7%
Jaylen Wright run for 4 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+3
1.6%
Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 3
OPP 39
0
1.5%
Jaylen Wright run for no gain to the LSU 39Similar
Q4 7:15
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+8
1.4%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Princeton Fant for 8 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
1.3%
Jaylen Wright run for 2 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
1.0%
Jaylen Wright run for no gain to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+9
1.0%
Jaylen Wright run for 9 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
0.6%
Jabari Small run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 21Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+4
0.6%
Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the LSU 17Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+3
0.5%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+32
0.2%
Chase McGrath 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21INT
11 plays · 72 yds · 2:010% → 0%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Noah Cain for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+23
0.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
50
+9
0.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 9 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+8
0.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 8 yds to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
0.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Noah Cain for 9 yds to the Tenn 24Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+11
0.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 11 yds to the Tenn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
0.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 10 yds to the Tenn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
0.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Jack BechSimilar
Q4 0:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
0.1%
Jayden Daniels pass intercepted, touchback. Trevon Flowers return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:39
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 45 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q2 3:05
Josh Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Damian Ramos KICK)
+10
TD · Q3 11:47
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jalin Hyatt for 14 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
-9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com