Iowa

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense0.003rd
  Defense−0.0195th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense37.2%10th
  Defense37.7%89th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1816th
  Defense+1.1885th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.019th
  Defense+0.0186th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.016th
  Defense−0.0297th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense41.7%7th
  Defense42.4%91st
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense28.4%23rd
  Defense28.8%66th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.653rd
  Defense2.7583rd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense22.0%7th
  Defense16.4%43rd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense17.4%29th
  Defense15.8%31st

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Iowa allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   IU
2. W
   ISU
3. W
   KENT
4. W
   CSU
5. W
   MD
6. W
   PSU
7. L
   PUR
8. L
   WIS
9. W
   NU
10. W
    MINN
11. W
    ILL
12. W
    NEB
13. L
    MICH
14. L
    UK

Bars above the line: better than expected for Iowa.

Players, 2021

1. Spencer PetrasQB287 plays · +0.181 pts/play · 94th of 219 QBs
   0.97WAR0.43 to 1.57
2. Tyler GoodsonRB260 plays · +0.152 pts/play · 26th of 387 RBs
   0.74WAR0.50 to 0.98
3. Tory TaylorP72 plays · +0.252 pts/play · 2nd of 101 punters
   0.34WAR0.19 to 0.51
4. Alex PadillaQB104 plays · +0.160 pts/play · 162nd of 219 QBs
   0.31WAR0.16 to 0.48
5. Gavin WilliamsRB62 plays · +0.180 pts/play · 213th of 387 RBs
   0.21WAR0.17 to 0.25
6. Caleb ShudakPK24 plays · +0.343 pts/play · 6th of 128 kickers
   0.15WAR0.10 to 0.23
7. Ivory Kelly-MartinRB40 plays · +0.143 pts/play · 286th of 387 RBs
   0.11WAR0.08 to 0.14
8. Charlie JonesWR34 plays · +0.166 pts/play · 215th of 474 WRs
   0.11WAR0.08 to 0.13

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Iowa's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  65765742nd of 130Roster talent: 657, 42nd of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  20520535th of 130Recruiting: 205, 35th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  62%62%87th of 128Returning production: 62%, 87th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +11.4+11.427th of 130SP+ rating: +11.4, 27th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Iowa's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.08 of the 0.19 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at UKQ4 3:31 4th & 1 at IOWA 45, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.9 pts
2. vs PSUQ4 11:58 4th & 3 at IOWA 46, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
3. vs CSUQ3 12:21 4th & 3 at CSU 46, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
4. vs PSUQ4 2:38 4th & 7 at IOWA 48, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
5. vs ILLQ3 9:12 4th & 3 at ILL 30, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
6. vs PSUQ2 0:37 4th & 2 at PSU 47, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
7. at UKQ4 5:58 4th & 2 at IOWA 43, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
8. vs CSUQ3 2:36 4th & 3 at IOWA 49, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

25th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Iowa's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   IU
2. W

   ISU
3. W

   KENT
4. W

   CSU
5. W

   MD
6. W

   PSU
7. L

   PUR
8. L

   WIS
9. W

   NU
10. W

    MINN
11. W

    ILL
12. W

    NEB
13. L

    MICH
14. L

    UK

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Iowa's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.61
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock+0.04
• Timeouts+0.05
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.68

Game by game

• IUW 34-6 vs IU61% → 100%Before kickoff +11 · On the field +39: Scoreboard +38
• ISUW 27-17 at ISU39% → 98%Before kickoff −11 · On the field +59: Scoreboard +57, Clock +3
• KENTW 30-7 vs KENT92% → 100%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +12
• CSUW 24-14 vs CSU94% → 97%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +12, Timeouts +1
• MDW 51-14 at MD55% → 100%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +45: Scoreboard +48, Clock +1
• PSUW 23-20 vs PSU55% → 97%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +41: Scoreboard +34, Timeouts +2
• PURL 7-24 vs PUR78% → 1%Before kickoff +28 · On the field −77: Scoreboard −66, Clock −2
• WISL 7-27 at WIS39% → 1%Before kickoff −11 · On the field −39: Scoreboard −38, Clock −1
• NUW 17-12 at NU83% → 80%Before kickoff +33 · On the field −4: Scoreboard +26, Possession & field position +1
• MINNW 27-22 vs MINN60% → 87%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +25, Timeouts +1
• ILLW 33-23 vs ILL79% → 95%Before kickoff +29 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +25, Possession & field position −2
• NEBW 28-21 at NEB48% → 95%Before kickoff −2 · On the field +46: Scoreboard +52, Clock +3
• MICHL 3-42 vs MICH21% → 0%Before kickoff −29 · On the field −20: Scoreboard −27
• UKL 17-20 at UK46% → 5%Before kickoff −4 · On the field −41: Scoreboard −36, Possession & field position +1

Points of win probability, from Iowa's side.

Closest call

NU 14-40 IOWA (2024) - Iowa dropped to a 3.7% win probability before pulling it out.