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MINN

Minnesota 22 at Iowa 27

IOWA
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:44 · Tory Taylor punt for 46 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 97Home team on offense+2.0Pregame prior+3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential+0.5Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:27: Cole Kramer pass complete to Ko Kieft for 37 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK) — MINN win probability +10.7 pts (now 44%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Matthew Trickett 31 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +5.1 pts (now 51%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:51: Alex Padilla pass complete to Charlie Jones for 72 yds for a TD (Caleb Shudak KICK) — IOWA win probability +14.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:49: Alex Padilla pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 27 yds for a TD (Caleb Shudak KICK) — IOWA win probability +21.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:28: Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 68 yds for a TD — MINN win probability +23.1 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MINN made the numbers' call on 6 of 12
  1. Q1 13:36MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:49IOWA 4th & 7 at MINN 32, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.1%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    62.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:07MINN 4th & 2 at IOWA 2, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.4%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−3.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:41MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:43IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:27MINN 4th & 2 at IOWA 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    29.6%−1.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00MINN 4th & 1 at IOWA 14, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.3%−2.5
    84% to make
    Punt
    37.9%−9.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:05IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:02MINN 4th & 7 at IOWA 43, up 3
    Close callPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    47.4%−1.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:14MINN 4th & 2 at IOWA 11, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.6%−1.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    25.9%−8.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:44IOWA 4th & 10 at IOWA 17, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−3.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:54MINN 4th & 9 at IOWA 36, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.7%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:07MINN 4th & 1 at MINN 34, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.7%−2.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:01MINN 4th & 14 at MINN 33, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−3.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:28IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 34, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−1.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:04IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 34, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    72.6%−4.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:08IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 39, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:18MINN 4th & 17 at MINN 3, down 2
    Numbers favored punt by 2.9 ptsWent for it · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.7%−2.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:41IOWA 4th & 11 at MINN 11, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−7.7
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.6%
    87% to make
    Punt
    59.8%−29.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:14MINN 4th & 10 at IOWA 49, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%−4.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MINN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:32IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:27MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:51IOWA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:49IOWA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2040% → 40%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.0%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
60.0%
Ky Thomas run for 4 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
60.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 1 yd to the Minn 30Similar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
60.1%
Mark Crawford punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:3460% → 61%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
60.0%
Tyler Goodson run for 12 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
60.1%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
60.1%
Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+6
60.1%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 6 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
60.4%
Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+11
60.5%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Arland Bruce IV for 11 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
60.6%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
60.7%
Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
60.6%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+50
60.7%
Caleb Shudak 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3FG
16 plays · 73 yds · 7:2539% → 41%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
60.7%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 16 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
60.3%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 2 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
60.3%
Ky Thomas run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 1
50
+2
60.2%
Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
60.2%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+13
60.3%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 13 yds to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
59.9%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 4 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+11
59.8%
Ky Thomas run for 11 yds to the Iowa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
59.8%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 1 yd to the Iowa 19Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+2
60.1%
Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the Iowa 17Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+12
60.5%
Ky Thomas run for 12 yds to the Iowa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
60.1%
Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the Iowa 3Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
60.0%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
60.2%
Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the Iowa 2Similar
Q1 2:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
58.7%
Matthew Trickett 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:0761% → 68%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
60.7%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 11 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
61.2%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-2
61.1%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 36Similar
Q1 0:26
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+17
60.2%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 17 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
62.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q2 14:36
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+5
62.2%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 5 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+34
62.1%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Charlie Jones for 34 yds to the Minn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
62.9%
Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds to the Minn 1Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.9%
Alex Padilla run for 1 yd for a TD (Caleb Shudak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:4734% → 32%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.9%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
66.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 9 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
65.8%
Ky Thomas run for 4 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
65.7%
THOMAS, Ky rush to the right for a gain of 14 yards to the IOW48 (HANKINS, Matt). PENALTY MIN Holding on FAALELE, Daniel enforced 10 yards from the MIN38 to the MIN28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+3
66.7%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 3 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+8
67.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 8 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+1
66.9%
Tanner Morgan run for 1 yd to the Minn 40Similar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
68.2%
Mark Crawford punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Iowa 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5868% → 67%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
67.9%
Gavin Williams run for 4 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
68.3%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
67.7%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
66.8%
Tory Taylor punt for 31 yds, downed at the Minn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 3:0433% → 44%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
66.9%
Ky Thomas run for 6 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+8
66.7%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 8 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
66.6%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 6 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+1
66.6%
Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the Iowa 38Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+1
67.1%
Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the Iowa 37Similar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+37
56.3%
Cole Kramer pass complete to Ko Kieft for 37 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:4961% → 61%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
60.7%
Tyler Goodson run for 9 yds to the Iowa 26Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+7
61.8%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 7 yds to the Iowa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
61.2%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 13 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9FG
11 plays · 32 yds · 4:0046% → 51%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
54.5%
Ky Thomas run for 6 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+6
54.3%
Ky Thomas run for 6 yds to the Iowa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
53.2%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 3 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+4
52.9%
Cole Kramer run for 4 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+4
53.0%
Ky Thomas run for 4 yds to the Iowa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
51.9%
Ky Thomas run for 7 yds to the Iowa 16Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+1
51.8%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 1 yd to the Iowa 15Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+1
52.9%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 1 yd to the Iowa 14Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+31
48.6%
Matthew Trickett 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3453% → 50%
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
53.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 20Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
52.4%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
51.1%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:05
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
50.3%
Tory Taylor punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:5949% → 49%
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
50.8%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+15
51.3%
IOWA Penalty, Personal Foul (Jack Campbell) to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
48.1%
Ky Thomas run for no gain to the Iowa 46Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
48.0%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 3 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
48.7%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 7
OPP 43
+15
50.6%
Mark Crawford punt for 30 yds, downed at the Iowa 13 MINNESOTA Penalty, Kick Catch Interference on WALLEY, Justin enforced (Justin Walley) to the Iowa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12TD
1 play · 72 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
64.8%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Charlie Jones for 72 yds for a TD (Caleb Shudak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 5:3336% → 40%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.5%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
64.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mike Brown-Stephens for 6 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
66.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 5 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
65.3%
Ky Thomas run for 13 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
63.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 16 yds to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
61.6%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 4 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+12
61.2%
Ky Thomas run for 12 yds to the Iowa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
61.1%
Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the Iowa 18Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+2
61.1%
Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the Iowa 16Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+5
62.6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 5 yds to the Iowa 11Similar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+29
60.3%
Matthew Trickett 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0463% → 60%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-4
63.3%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 13Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 14
OWN 13
+4
62.9%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Arland Bruce IV for 4 yds to the Iowa 17Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
61.1%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
60.2%
Tory Taylor punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 27 yds · 4:3739% → 38%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
61.0%
Ky Thomas run for 4 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+11
58.8%
Ky Thomas run for 11 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
58.0%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 4 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+4
57.9%
Ky Thomas run for 4 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+3
57.9%
Ky Thomas run for 3 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
57.9%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
58.0%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 4 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q3 0:17
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-3
58.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mar'Keise Irving for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 36Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 9
OPP 36
0
61.6%
Dragan Kesich 53 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by , Brevyn Spann-Ford return for no gain to the Iowa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:2867% → 88%
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
66.6%
Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+15
67.3%
PADILLA, Alex pass to the right incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Keagan thrown to the MIN48. PENALTY MIN Pass Interference on DURR, Coney enforced 15 yards to the MIN39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
68.2%
Tyler Goodson run for no gain to the Minn 39Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
67.9%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+12
66.5%
Tyler Goodson run for 12 yds to the Minn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
87.9%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 27 yds for a TD (Caleb Shudak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 2:3216% → 13%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
83.6%
Ky Thomas run for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 20Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
84.2%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+14
85.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mike Brown-Stephens for 14 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
84.5%
run for 3 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
83.6%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 1 yd to the Minn 38Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
83.6%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 9
OWN 38
-5
84.6%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Brevyn Spann-Ford) to the Minn 33Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 14
OWN 33
0
86.3%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:01
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
86.6%
Mark Crawford punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Iowa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1388% → 87%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
87.8%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 31Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+3
87.9%
Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
87.8%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:28
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
87.2%
Tory Taylor punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 2:5013% → 36%
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
86.9%
Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the Minn 20Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+6
87.2%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 6 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 2
OWN 26
-5
87.4%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Delay Of Game (Justin Walley) to the Minn 21Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+11
89.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 11 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
87.4%
Ky Thomas run for no gain to the Minn 32Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+68
64.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 68 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 14 yds · 2:1571% → 78%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.1%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.5%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 26Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
70.0%
Tyler Goodson run for 8 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q4 4:04
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
71.9%
Alex Padilla run for 1 yd to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
74.3%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
74.6%
Keagan Johnson run for no gain to the Iowa 35Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+4
73.1%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 4 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
77.9%
Tory Taylor punt for 51 yds, downed at the Minn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:4729% → 25%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
71.2%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
71.7%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Zach VanValkenburg for 0 yards to the Minn 3Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 17
OWN 3
0
74.9%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 17
OWN 3
0
74.9%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22FG
7 plays · -8 yds · 1:1986% → 94%
Q4 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
86.0%
Alex Padilla run for no gain to the Minn 3Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
87.9%
Alex Padilla run for 1 yd to the Minn 2Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
88.2%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 6Similar
Q4 0:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
88.7%
IOWA Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the Minn 11Similar
Q4 0:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
93.7%
Caleb Shudak 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:3010% → 13%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
89.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mike Brown-Stephens for 22 yds to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
87.6%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
88.4%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
89.8%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:14
4TH & 10
OPP 49
+10
90.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mike Brown-Stephens for 10 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
86.2%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
87.0%
Tanner Morgan sacked for 0 yards to the Minn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:28
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 68 yds for a TD
-23.1
TD · Q4 12:49
Alex Padilla pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 27 yds for a TD (Caleb Shudak KICK)
+21.5
TD · Q3 11:51
Alex Padilla pass complete to Charlie Jones for 72 yds for a TD (Caleb Shudak KICK)
+14.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com