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ILL

Illinois 23 at Iowa 33

IOWA
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGFGFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:02 · Tory Taylor punt for 52 yds , Donny Navarro III returns for no gain to the Illin 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 124Pregame prior+6.9Home team on offense+6.8Garbage-time factor+2.8Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 3:13: James McCourt 45 Yd Field Goal — ILL win probability +3.4 pts (now 26%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 9:12: Caleb Shudak 48 Yd Field Goal — IOWA win probability +3.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 2:46: James McCourt 53 Yd Field Goal — ILL win probability +5.1 pts (now 29%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 9:53: Caleb Shudak 29 Yd Field Goal — IOWA win probability +9.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:31: Isaiah Williams 16 Yd pass from Brandon Peters (James McCourt Kick) — ILL win probability +3.3 pts (now 5%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 10 of 11ILL made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 4:41IOWA 4th & 3 at ILL 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    73.6%−0.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    73.8%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:20ILL 4th & 10 at IOWA 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    26.2%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:30ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:07ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:41IOWA 4th & 13 at ILL 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    73.9%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:13ILL 4th & 5 at IOWA 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−3.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:10IOWA 4th & 2 at IOWA 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:38IOWA 4th & 8 at ILL 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.7%
    36% to make
    Punt
    74.1%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:07ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:00IOWA 4th & 1 at ILL 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    74.1%−2.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    74.1%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:12IOWA 4th & 3 at ILL 30, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.7%−1.0
    56% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−2.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:01ILL 4th & 21 at ILL 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−3.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:41IOWA 4th & 14 at ILL 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    81.1%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:46ILL 4th & 4 at IOWA 35, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.7%−1.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−2.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:01IOWA 4th & 9 at IOWA 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−2.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:33ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 6, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:02IOWA 4th & 13 at IOWA 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−5.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:53IOWA 4th & 10 at ILL 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−1.8
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    60.2%−14.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:44ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−2.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:37ILL 4th & 3 at IOWA 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    10.7%−3.7
    23% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−3.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:55IOWA 4th & 8 at ILL 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    90.2%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:37ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:08IOWA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 1:36IOWA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:31ILL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:0521% → 25%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
79.3%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
79.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Luke Ford for 5 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
79.0%
Brandon Peters run for 5 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
78.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 14 yds to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
78.6%
Chase Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 11
50
+10
78.5%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Chase Brown for 10 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 1
OPP 40
-5
78.2%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Vederian Lowe) to the Iowa 45Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+17
78.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Casey Washington for 17 yds to the Iowa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
77.8%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
77.7%
Daniel Barker run for 3 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+9
77.6%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Chase Brown for 9 yds to the Iowa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
77.3%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Iowa 13Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
75.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Luke Ford for 13 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · 6 yds · 3:4676% → 72%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
75.7%
Tyler Goodson run for 6 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+3
75.6%
Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+7
75.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 7 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
75.1%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
50
+6
75.1%
Arland Bruce IV run for 6 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
75.0%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+1
74.7%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd to the Illin 43Similar
Q1 4:41
4TH & 3
OPP 43
-29
74.0%
run for a loss of 29 yards to the Iowa 28Similar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-15
72.3%
MCCRAY, Josh rush to the right for no gain to the IOW28 (CAMPBELL, Jack). PENALTY ILL Tripping on JERESATY, Blake enforced 15 yards from the IOW28 to the IOW43. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3928% → 28%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 25
OPP 43
+15
72.1%
Isaiah Williams run for 15 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
71.5%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
71.7%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+46
71.8%
James McCourt 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1525% → 25%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.0%
Joshua McCray run for no gain to the Illin 25Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.4%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Joshua McCray for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 1:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
74.6%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:30
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+13
74.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 35 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:0275% → 77%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
50
+13
75.2%
Arland Bruce IV run for 13 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
75.2%
Alex Padilla sacked by Jer'Zhan Newton for 0 yards to the Illin 48Similar
Q1 0:13
2ND & 21
OPP 48
+12
74.2%
Gavin Williams run for 12 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+28
74.6%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Arland Bruce IV for 28 yds to the Illin 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
75.3%
Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the Illin 5Similar
Q2 14:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
75.2%
Alex Padilla run for 3 yds to the Illin 2Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.3%
Arland Bruce IV 2 Yd Run (Caleb Shudak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5424% → 23%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.4%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.4%
Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
76.3%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:07
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+59
76.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 59 yds , Charlie Jones returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 6:0776% → 79%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+23
75.9%
Tyler Goodson run for 23 yds to the Iowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
76.2%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 28Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+8
75.7%
Tyler Goodson run for 8 yds to the Iowa 36Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+8
75.6%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 8 yds to the Iowa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
76.6%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 12 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
77.1%
Alex Padilla run for 5 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+9
77.0%
Gavin Williams run for 9 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
77.3%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 11
OPP 31
-1
77.7%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 32Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 12
OPP 32
-1
76.4%
Gavin Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 13
OPP 33
+51
78.9%
Caleb Shudak 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 3:1621% → 26%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
79.1%
Joshua McCray run for 2 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
78.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 1 yd to the Illin 28Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+20
79.6%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 20 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
77.5%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 20 yds to the Iowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
76.2%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
75.9%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
76.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Casey Washington for no gain to the Iowa 27Similar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+45
73.6%
James McCourt 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4975% → 74%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.3%
PADILLA, Alex pass to the left complete for 1 yard to BRUCE IV, Arland caught at the IOW26 and advanced to the IOW26 (ADAMS, Tony). PENALTY IOW Face mask on BRUCE IV, Arland enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards from the IOW25 to the IOW12. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+6
74.8%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 6 yds to the Iowa 19Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+14
74.4%
Tyler Goodson run for 14 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
74.8%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
73.7%
Tory Taylor punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:1126% → 26%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.3%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.4%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
73.9%
Brandon Peters pass intercepted return for no gain to the Illin 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11MISSED FG
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:1277% → 74%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
77.0%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
76.8%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
75.3%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 8
OPP 39
+57
74.2%
Caleb Shudak 57 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:2328% → 25%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
72.2%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+4
73.2%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
72.7%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 3
OWN 46
+2
74.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 41 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 2 yds to the Iowa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 5:2775% → 81%
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
74.7%
Tyler Goodson run for 6 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+6
75.6%
Tyler Goodson run for 6 yds to the Iowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
75.8%
Tyler Goodson run for 13 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
76.4%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+6
76.2%
Alex Padilla run for 6 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+1
75.7%
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the Illin 38Similar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+1
76.6%
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
78.3%
Tyler Goodson run for 5 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+2
79.0%
Arland Bruce IV run for 2 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
77.9%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:12
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+48
81.3%
Caleb Shudak 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:5321% → 19%
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
79.0%
Joshua McCray run for 2 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
78.7%
PETERS, Brandon pass to the right incomplete intended for FORD, Luke thrown to the ILL42. PENALTY ILL Holding on BADOVINAC, Jack enforced 10 yards from the ILL27 to the ILL17 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+6
79.3%
Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
80.1%
Brandon Peters sacked by Joe Evans for 0 yards to the Illin 14Similar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+53
80.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 53 yds , Charlie Jones returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:0883% → 81%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
82.5%
Gavin Williams run for 9 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+7
84.0%
Gavin Williams run for 7 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
84.2%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Arland Bruce IV for 17 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
84.7%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-4
84.6%
Charlie Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 39Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 14
OPP 39
0
82.4%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
79.3%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Luke Ford) to the Illin 15Similar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 14
OPP 39
0
80.8%
Tory Taylor punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17FG
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:4321% → 29%
Q3 4:29
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+44
79.5%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Casey Washington for 44 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
76.3%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
76.3%
Joshua McCray run for 5 yds to the Iowa 36Similar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+1
76.6%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Iowa 35Similar
Q3 2:46
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+53
71.5%
James McCourt 53 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:1276% → 73%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
75.6%
Tyler Goodson run for 6 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
76.6%
Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
75.9%
Alex Padilla run for 2 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
76.5%
Tyler Goodson run for no gain to the Iowa 36Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
75.8%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 37Similar
Q3 0:09
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
74.9%
IOWA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nick DeJong) declinedSimilar
Q3 0:01
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
73.3%
Tory Taylor punt for 53 yds , Donny Navarro III returns for no gain to the Illin 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:2726% → 24%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
73.6%
Joshua McCray run for 1 yd to the Illin 6Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 6
0
73.9%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 9
OWN 6
0
75.2%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:33
4TH & 9
OWN 6
+46
76.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 46 yds , Charlie Jones returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2676% → 73%
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
76.3%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
75.9%
Gavin Williams run for no gain to the Iowa 37Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
74.3%
Alex Padilla sacked by Isaiah Gay for 0 yards to the Iowa 34Similar
Q4 13:02
4TH & 13
OWN 34
0
72.5%
Tory Taylor punt for 52 yds , Donny Navarro III returns for no gain to the Illin 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21Uncategorized
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2027% → 25%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
73.3%
Isaiah Williams run for 2 yds to the Illin 9Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+6
73.7%
Joshua McCray run for 6 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 2
OWN 15
0
74.1%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:27
4TH & 2
OWN 15
-15
75.3%
HAYES, Blake punt 41 yards to the IOW44, JONES, Charlie return 9 yards to the ILL47 (DARKANGELO, Isaac). PENALTY ILL Unsportsmanlike Conduct on SMITH, Kendall enforced 15 yards ILL Unsportsmanlike Conduct on MARCHESE, Michael enforced 15 yards after the change of possession from the end of the play at the ILL47 to the ILL17 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22FG
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:2979% → 87%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
79.2%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Roughing the Passer on CARNEY, JR., Owen enforced half the distance from the goal (Owen Carney Jr.) to the Illin 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
79.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Illin 6Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
79.1%
Caleb Shudak run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 10Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
77.7%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+29
87.2%
Caleb Shudak 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4417% → 14%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
82.8%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 26Similar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
82.9%
Brandon Peters sacked by Logan Lee for 0 yards to the Illin 16Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+7
84.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Luke Ford for 7 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q4 7:44
4TH & 12
OWN 23
-3
85.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 56 yds , Charlie Jones returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 24INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:2288% → 89%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
88.1%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 20Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
88.6%
Alex Padilla pass intercepted return for no gain to the Illin 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1818% → 14%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
82.2%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
83.1%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Iowa 49Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+3
84.9%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q4 5:37
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
86.0%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 26FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:1892% → 97%
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
92.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 6
50
+21
92.3%
Tyler Goodson run for 21 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
94.4%
Gavin Williams run for 16 yds to the Illin 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
94.7%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Illin 11Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 8
OPP 11
-2
95.3%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 13Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+2
95.6%
Gavin Williams run for 2 yds to the Illin 11Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+30
96.5%
Caleb Shudak 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 27INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:114% → 2%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.4%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-32
98.3%
Jack Campbell 32 Yd Interception Return (Caleb Shudak Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 28TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:572% → 5%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
98.3%
PETERS, Brandon pass to the right complete for 4 yards to BARKER, Daniel caught at the ILL29 and advanced to the ILL29, End of Play. PENALTY ILL Holding on PEARL, Julian enforced 10 yards from the ILL25 to the ILL15 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
98.4%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+45
98.4%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Patrick Bryant for 45 yds to the Iowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
97.9%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+24
98.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Tip Reiman for 24 yds to the Iowa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
94.7%
Isaiah Williams 16 Yd pass from Brandon Peters (James McCourt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 9:53
Caleb Shudak 29 Yd Field Goal
+9.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+5.3
FG · Q3 2:46
James McCourt 53 Yd Field Goal
-5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com