Central Michigan

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2061st
  Defense+0.1265th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense43.4%53rd
  Defense42.0%53rd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3478th
  Defense+1.2555th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1252nd
  Defense+0.0471st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3480th
  Defense+0.2436th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense49.9%64th
  Defense49.0%38th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense31.3%49th
  Defense28.4%69th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0951st
  Defense2.8766th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.0%25th
  Defense19.0%71st
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.1%60th
  Defense19.6%88th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Central Michigan allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   MIZ
2. W
   RMU
3. L
   LSU
4. W
   FIU
5. L
   M-OH
6. W
   OHIO
7. W
   TOL
8. L
   NIU
9. W
   WMU
10. W
    KENT
11. W
    BALL
12. W
    EMU
13. W
    WSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Central Michigan.

Players, 2021

1. Daniel RichardsonQB312 plays · +0.280 pts/play · 53rd of 219 QBs
   1.64WAR0.95 to 2.25
2. Lew Nichols IIIRB319 plays · +0.208 pts/play · 2nd of 387 RBs
   1.24WAR0.94 to 1.57
3. Jacob SirmonQB105 plays · +0.125 pts/play · 169th of 219 QBs
   0.25WAR0.08 to 0.45
4. Kalil PimpletonWR88 plays · +0.109 pts/play · 88th of 474 WRs
   0.18WAR0.08 to 0.28
5. Dallas DixonWR42 plays · +0.222 pts/play · 94th of 474 WRs
   0.17WAR0.13 to 0.22
6. Marshall MeederPK19 plays · +0.364 pts/play · 13th of 128 kickers
   0.13WAR0.09 to 0.18
7. Luke ElzingaP42 plays · +0.159 pts/play · 37th of 101 punters
   0.13WAR0.05 to 0.21
8. JaCorey SullivanWR56 plays · +0.119 pts/play · 176th of 474 WRs
   0.13WAR0.06 to 0.19

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Central Michigan's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  269269123rd of 130Roster talent: 269, 123rd of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  132132107th of 130Recruiting: 132, 107th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  77%77%60th of 128Returning production: 77%, 60th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −1.0−1.084th of 130SP+ rating: −1.0, 84th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Central Michigan's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.44 of the 0.52 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs NIUQ4 0:03 4th & 7 at NIU 22, down 1Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−37.6 pts
2. at M-OHQ4 3:46 4th & 1 at M-OH 23, down 11Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
3. vs WSUQ4 9:11 4th & 3 at WSU 25, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
4. vs TOLQ4 6:12 4th & 2 at TOL 26, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
5. vs NIUQ4 13:42 4th & 3 at CMU 49, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
6. at BALLQ3 9:38 4th & 3 at CMU 48, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
7. vs FIUQ2 2:52 4th & 13 at FIU 36, down 4Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.9 pts
8. at LSUQ2 11:58 4th & 1 at CMU 29, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

9th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Central Michigan's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   MIZ
2. W

   RMU
3. L

   LSU
4. W

   FIU
5. L

   M-OH
6. W

   OHIO
7. W

   TOL
8. L

   NIU
9. W

   WMU
10. W

    KENT
11. W

    BALL
12. W

    EMU
13. W

    WSU

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Central Michigan's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.59
• Possession & field position+0.02
• Clock−0.03
• Timeouts+0.14
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.21

Game by game

• MIZL 24-34 at MIZ17% → 6%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −10: Scoreboard −20, Clock −1
• RMUW 45-0 vs RMU98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +4
• LSUL 21-49 at LSU9% → 0%Before kickoff −41 · On the field −9: Scoreboard −12
• FIUW 31-27 vs FIU74% → 4%Before kickoff +24 · On the field −69: Scoreboard −56, Clock −3
• M-OHL 17-28 at M-OH52% → 3%Before kickoff +2 · On the field −49: Scoreboard −39, Possession & field position −1
• OHIOW 30-27 at OHIO62% → 98%Before kickoff +12 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +33, Timeouts +9
• TOLW 26-23 vs TOL37% → 48%Before kickoff −13 · On the field +11: Scoreboard −11, Clock −3
• NIUL 38-39 vs NIU69% → 7%Before kickoff +19 · On the field −62: Scoreboard −54, Clock −3
• WMUW 42-30 at WMU26% → 98%Before kickoff −24 · On the field +72: Scoreboard +59, Clock +3
• KENTW 54-30 vs KENT57% → 100%Before kickoff +7 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +40, Timeouts +1
• BALLW 37-17 at BALL57% → 99%Before kickoff +7 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +47, Clock +2
• EMUW 31-10 vs EMU71% → 100%Before kickoff +21 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +30, Timeouts +1
• WSUW 24-21 vs WSU34% → 94%Before kickoff −16 · On the field +60: Scoreboard +39, Timeouts +2

Points of win probability, from Central Michigan's side.

Closest call

FIU 27-31 CMU (2021) - Central Michigan dropped to a 4.2% win probability before pulling it out.