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CMU

Central Michigan 42 at Western Michigan 30

WMU
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2021 · Waldo Stadium
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Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:08 · Marshall Meeder 38 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 7Home team on offense−0.1Pregame prior+23.0Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:06: Kalil Pimpleton 11 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Marshall Meeder Kick) — CMU win probability +13.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:03: Kalil Pimpleton 97 Yd Punt Return (Marshall Meeder Kick) — CMU win probability +14.8 pts (now 49%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:19: Lew Nichols III 8 Yd Run (Marshall Meeder Kick) — CMU win probability +16.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:35: Corey Crooms 31 Yd pass from Kaleb Eleby (Parker Sampson Kick) — WMU win probability +20.8 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 12:57: Lew Nichols III 5 Yd Run (Marshall Meeder Kick) — CMU win probability +14.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7CMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:08CMU 4th & 10 at WMU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    26.3%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:41CMU 4th & 11 at WMU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.3%
    51% to make
    Punt
    24.9%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:01CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:28WMU 4th & 6 at WMU 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:19CMU 4th & 16 at CMU 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:03WMU 4th & 7 at WMU 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:36WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:03WMU 4th & 21 at WMU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−3.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:52WMU 4th & 15 at WMU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−3.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:47CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:03WMU 4th & 4 at CMU 12, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.1%−0.4
    86% to make
    Punt
    35.6%−12.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:57CMU 4th & 1 at WMU 5, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.0%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    53.7%−6.3
    92% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−22.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:28CMU 4th & 1 at WMU 16, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    81.1%−2.8
    81% to make
    Punt
    72.9%−11.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:31CMU 4th & 14 at WMU 24, up 12
    Close callWent for it · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.5%−0.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    96.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    94.3%−2.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:40WMU 4th & 15 at WMU 6, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.2%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4CMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 6:15WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:11WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:03CMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:06CMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:03CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:19CMU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:35WMU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:57CMU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:31CMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:41WMU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    10.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1MISSED FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 1:3926% → 27%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+43
73.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 43 yds to the WMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
73.6%
Lew Nichols III run for 12 yds to the WMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
73.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Remi SimmonsSimilar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
73.4%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the WMich 20Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
73.3%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q1 13:08
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+38
73.3%
Marshall Meeder 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 6:4273% → 75%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
73.4%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 9 yds to the WMich 29Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+1
73.4%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the WMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
73.3%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 7 yds to the WMich 37Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+2
73.4%
Sean Tyler run for 2 yds to the WMich 39Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
73.2%
Sean Tyler run for 2 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
73.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 4 yds to the WMich 45Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
73.2%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 1
50
+6
73.1%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 6 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
73.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 8 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+3
73.1%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the CMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
73.1%
Kaleb Eleby run for 11 yds to the CMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
73.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 4 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+3
72.9%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+4
72.6%
Sean Tyler run for 4 yds to the CMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
75.3%
Sean Tyler 11 Yd Run (Parker Sampson Kick)Similar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
50
+15
75.2%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the CMich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5275% → 75%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
75.4%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to La'Darius JeffersonSimilar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+2
75.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+3
75.2%
Kaleb Eleby run for 3 yds to the CMich 19 Kaleb Eleby fumbled, recovered by CMich Devonni ReedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4MISSED FG
5 plays · 49 yds · 2:2325% → 25%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+50
74.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 50 yds to the WMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
73.4%
Myles Bailey run for 4 yds to the WMich 27Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
73.3%
Daniel Richardson run for no gain to the WMich 27Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 6
OPP 27
-5
73.7%
Daniel Richardson sacked by Ali Fayad and Ralph Holley for a loss of 5 yards to the WMich 32Similar
Q1 2:41
4TH & 11
OPP 32
+50
74.8%
Marshall Meeder 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 5:1975% → 82%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
74.9%
Sean Tyler run for 7 yds to the WMich 39Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+8
75.6%
Kaleb Eleby run for 8 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
75.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 6 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
75.9%
Sean Tyler run for no gain to the CMich 47Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+5
75.6%
Sean Tyler run for 5 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
76.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 4 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+11
76.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 11 yds to the CMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
76.2%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 6 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+7
76.3%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 7 yds to the CMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
76.4%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 8 yds to the CMich 6Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 2
OPP 6
0
76.5%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to Skyy Moore, broken up by Donte KentSimilar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
81.6%
La'Darius Jefferson 6 Yd Run (Parker Sampson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5221% → 20%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
79.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 9 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 1
OWN 40
-2
79.2%
Daniel Richardson run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 38Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 3
OWN 38
-2
79.8%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 36Similar
Q2 10:01
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
80.4%
Luke Elzinga punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Bryce Nunnelly at the WMich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2582% → 81%
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
81.8%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the WMich 15Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+3
82.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Corey Crooms for 3 yds to the WMich 18Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 6
OWN 18
0
81.9%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to Skyy MooreSimilar
Q2 8:28
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
81.4%
Nick Mihalic punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:0020% → 18%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-6
80.2%
Daniel Richardson sacked by Braden Fiske for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 16
OWN 43
0
81.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Kalil Pimpleton, broken up by A.J. ThomasSimilar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 16
OWN 43
0
81.6%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to JaCorey Sullivan, broken up by Dorian JacksonSimilar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 16
OWN 43
0
82.0%
Luke Elzinga punt for 43 yds, downed at the WMich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9PUNT TD
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:1082% → 75%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
82.2%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 11 yds to the WMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the WMich 25Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
82.4%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+70
75.1%
Kalil Pimpleton 70 Yd Punt Return (Marshall Meeder Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 3:1277% → 77%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
76.7%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the WMich 23Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
76.7%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the WMich 25Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+7
76.2%
Kaleb Eleby run for 7 yds to the WMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
77.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 4 yds to the WMich 36Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
77.7%
Sean Tyler run for no gain to the WMich 36Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+2
76.5%
Sean Tyler run for 2 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
76.8%
Nick Mihalic punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 0:2023% → 40%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+61
76.9%
Lew Nichols III run for 61 yds to the WMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
72.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
60.0%
Kalil Pimpleton 11 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Marshall Meeder Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12PUNT TD
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:5668% → 51%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
68.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Corey Crooms for 28 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
70.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-6
70.4%
Kaleb Eleby sacked by John Wesley Whiteside for a loss of 6 yards to the WMich 47Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 16
OWN 47
-5
67.5%
Kaleb Eleby sacked by Amir Siddiq for a loss of 5 yards to the WMich 42Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 21
OWN 42
+97
51.4%
Kalil Pimpleton 97 Yd Punt Return (Marshall Meeder Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
53.0%
Sean Tyler run for 3 yds to the WMich 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14FUMBLE
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:0152% → 48%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
52.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 10 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
52.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 6 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-10
54.4%
Jefferson, La'Darius rush for 6 yards to the WESTMICH47, PENALTY WESTMICH holding (Borske, Brett) 10 yards to the WESTMICH31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 14
OWN 31
0
51.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to Bryce Nunnelly, broken up by Troy BrownSimilar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 14
OWN 31
-1
49.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Corey Crooms for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 30Similar
Q3 12:52
4TH & 15
OWN 30
+56
48.0%
Nick Mihalic punt for 44 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 13 Kalil Pimpleton fumbled, recovered by CMich CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Darius Bracy) to the CMich 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:0151% → 51%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
48.8%
Richardson, Daniel pass incomplete to Sullivan, JaCorey, PENALTY WESTMICH pass interference (Jackson, Dorian) 15 yards to the CENTMICH28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CENTMICH.Similar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
47.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, False Start (Bernhard Raimann) to the CMich 23Similar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+7
48.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 7 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
47.1%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Kalil Pimpleton, broken up by Jake MoertlSimilar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
48.1%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to JaCorey Sullivan, broken up by Dorian JacksonSimilar
Q3 11:47
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
49.5%
Luke Elzinga punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:4051% → 58%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
51.4%
Kaleb Eleby sacked by John Wesley Whiteside for a loss of 5 yards to the WMich 35Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+47
48.5%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 47 yds to the CMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
54.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to Jaylen HallSimilar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+8
53.9%
Sean Tyler run for 8 yds to the CMich 10Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 2
OPP 10
-5
52.0%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Jacob Gideon) to the CMich 15Similar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 7
OPP 15
-2
51.6%
Kaleb Eleby run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 17Similar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+5
48.7%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive Offside (Daedae Hill) to the CMich 12Similar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+29
57.7%
Nick Mihalic 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:2846% → 67%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
54.2%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+57
53.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 44 yds to the WESTMICH 25 for a 1ST down WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Roughing Passer (Ralph Holley) to the WMich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
49.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 4 yds to the WMich 8Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
32.7%
Lew Nichols III 8 Yd Run (Marshall Meeder Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 4:3236% → 55%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
35.6%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Corey Crooms for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 11Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 12
OWN 11
+8
35.1%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 8 yds to the WMich 19Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+5
33.4%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Corey Crooms for 5 yds to the WMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
34.5%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 12 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
34.5%
Kaleb Eleby run for 1 yd to the WMich 37Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+5
32.5%
Kaleb Eleby run for 5 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+20
32.3%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 20 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
34.4%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 7 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+31
55.2%
Corey Crooms 31 Yd pass from Kaleb Eleby (Parker Sampson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 4:2456% → 78%
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
43.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 3 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-4
42.8%
Daniel Richardson run for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 31 Daniel Richardson fumbled, recovered by CMich Daniel RichardsonSimilar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+14
45.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 14 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+41
40.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 41 yds to the WMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
36.6%
Lew Nichols III run for 7 yds to the WMich 7Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+2
36.2%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the WMich 5Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 1
OPP 5
0
37.3%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the WMich 5Similar
Q4 12:57
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+5
22.4%
Lew Nichols III 5 Yd Run (Marshall Meeder Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3323% → 23%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
23.4%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 9 yds to the WMich 36Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 1
OWN 36
0
24.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to Corey CroomsSimilar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+1
22.8%
Kaleb Eleby run for 1 yd to the WMich 37 Kaleb Eleby fumbled, recovered by CMich George DouglasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 37 yds · 4:3580% → 96%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
20.1%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to JaCorey Sullivan, broken up by Corvin MomentSimilar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+12
20.0%
Lew Nichols III run for 12 yds to the WMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
16.2%
Lew Nichols III run for 7 yds to the WMich 18Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+1
15.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the WMich 17Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+1
15.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the WMich 16Similar
Q4 9:28
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+1
15.8%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the WMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
13.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 4 yds to the WMich 11Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
12.8%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the WMich 11Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
3.7%
Joel Wilson 11 Yd pass from Darius Bracy (Marshall Meeder Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 1:395% → 16%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
4.9%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to Jaxson KincaideSimilar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+10
4.7%
Eleby, Kaleb pass sacked for loss of 1 yards to the WESTMICH13 (Wesley Whiteside, John), PENALTY CENTMICH holding (Sturkey, Rolliann) 10 yards to the WESTMICH24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTMICH.Similar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
4.8%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Anthony Torres for 9 yds to the WMich 33Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 1
OWN 33
0
4.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+3
4.6%
Sean Tyler run for 3 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+54
4.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Corey Crooms for 54 yds to the CMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
3.9%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to Jaylen HallSimilar
Q4 5:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
15.7%
Sean Tyler 10 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23DOWNS
16 plays · 35 yds · 4:0493% → 97%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
7.5%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the WMich 46Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
6.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 4 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+11
6.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 11 yds to the WMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
6.0%
Lew Nichols III run for 6 yds to the WMich 25Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+5
5.3%
Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds to the WMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
4.0%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the WMich 20Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-5
3.8%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, False Start (Keegan Cossou) to the WMich 25Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 15
OPP 25
-5
4.0%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, False Start (Joel Wilson) to the WMich 30Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 20
OPP 30
+7
4.0%
Lew Nichols III run for 7 yds to the WMich 23Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 13
OPP 23
-1
3.8%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 24Similar
Q4 1:31
4TH & 14
OPP 24
+13
2.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Hunter Buczkowski for 13 yds to the WMich 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 24INT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:512% → 2%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
2.4%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Mike Caliendo) to the WMich 6Similar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 15
OWN 6
0
2.4%
Kaleb Eleby run for no gain to the WMich 6Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 15
OWN 6
0
2.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete to Skyy MooreSimilar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 15
OWN 6
0
2.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 15
OWN 6
0
2.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass intercepted Troy Brown return for no gain to the WMich 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
2.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:35
Corey Crooms 31 Yd pass from Kaleb Eleby (Parker Sampson Kick)
+20.8
TD · Q3 7:19
Lew Nichols III 8 Yd Run (Marshall Meeder Kick)
-16.4
TD · Q4 12:57
Lew Nichols III 5 Yd Run (Marshall Meeder Kick)
-14.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com