Try the model
CMU

Central Michigan 21 at LSU 49

LSU
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:47 · Luke Elzinga punt for 60 yds, downed at the LSU 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 101Pregame prior+18.2Home team on offense+32.6Score differential+26.3Blowout margin+13.4Garbage-time factor+8.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:52: Max Johnson pass complete to Deion Smith for 40 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:25: Jacob Sirmon pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 78 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK) — CMU win probability +2.8 pts (now 9%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:54: Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 2 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +4.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:15: Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 20 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK) — LSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:47: Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 18 yds for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK) — CMU win probability +0.9 pts (now 1%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4CMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 4:56LSU 4th & 23 at LSU 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:45CMU 4th & 11 at CMU 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:20LSU 4th & 2 at LSU 45, up 14
    Close callPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:58CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 29, down 14
    Close callPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:00CMU 4th & 19 at CMU 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:30CMU 4th & 6 at LSU 40, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%
    34% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:42CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 36, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:47CMU 4th & 15 at CMU 30, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:37LSU 4th & 17 at LSU 28, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:26CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 32, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:55LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 16, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00CMU 4th & 1 at LSU 31, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:48CMU 4th & 7 at LSU 21, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:48LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:05LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:52LSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:25CMU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:54LSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:15LSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:34LSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:41CMU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:47CMU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:19LSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:1291% → 91%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
90.8%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
90.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+9
90.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 9 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
90.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 10 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
90.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for no gain to the CMich 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
90.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+9
90.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 9 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
90.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Deion Smith for 28 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4310% → 9%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.4%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 2 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
90.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 6 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
90.4%
Darius Bracy run for 2 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+33
90.7%
Andre Anthony 33 Yd Fumble Return (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:459% → 9%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 26Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
90.7%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 3 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
90.7%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 12 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
90.7%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-2
90.7%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 39Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 12
OWN 39
0
90.8%
Jacob Sirmon pass intercepted for a 1ST down return for no gain to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 2:2491% → 91%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
91.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Devonta Lee for 8 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 2
OPP 37
-11
91.3%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for a loss of 11 yards to the CMich 48 fumbled, recovered by LSU Tyrion Davis-PriceSimilar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 13
OPP 48
-5
91.1%
JOHNSON, Max pass up the middle complete for 13 yards to LEE, Devonta caught at the CMU35 and advanced to the CMU35 (KRESKI, Gage). PENALTY Before the snap, LSU Illegal Formation on DECULUS, Austin enforced 5 yards from the CMU48 to the LSU47. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 18
OWN 47
-5
91.1%
LSU Penalty, Delay Of Game (Max Johnson) to the LSU 42Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 23
OWN 42
0
91.1%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:56
4TH & 23
OWN 42
0
91.0%
Avery Atkins punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:119% → 9%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
90.9%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 5Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 11
OWN 5
-3
91.0%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 2Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 14
OWN 2
+3
91.0%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 11
OWN 5
+47
91.2%
Luke Elzinga punt for 47 yds , Koy Moore returns for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 0:5391% → 94%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
91.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 11 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
91.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 12 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
93.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Deion Smith for 40 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:277% → 9%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
93.4%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Lew Nichols III for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 23Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-1
93.5%
Marion Lukes run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 22Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+78
90.7%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 78 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:4091% → 91%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
91.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Devonta Lee for 6 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+11
91.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Koy Moore for 11 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
91.3%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
91.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Devonta Lee for 4 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
91.3%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:20
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
91.2%
Avery Atkins punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2210% → 10%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.5%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
90.6%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 21Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+8
90.7%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Joel Wilson for 8 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q2 11:58
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
90.5%
Luke Elzinga punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Koy Moore at the LSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 5:0491% → 96%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
91.3%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+13
91.6%
Corey Kiner run for 13 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
91.7%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 49Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+9
91.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 9 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+4
91.5%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
91.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 6 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+15
91.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Deion Smith for 15 yds to the CMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
91.2%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
91.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the CMich 12Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+8
91.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Devonta Lee for 8 yds to the CMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
91.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the CMich 2Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 2 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 3:305% → 4%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
94.8%
Lew Nichols III run for 17 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
94.6%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
94.7%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Joel Wilson for 4 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+6
94.7%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 6 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
94.3%
Jacob Sirmon sacked by BJ Ojulari for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 12
50
0
94.6%
run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 12
50
0
94.8%
Jacob Sirmon sacked by BJ Ojulari for 0 yards to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 3:00
4TH & 19
OWN 43
0
95.6%
Luke Elzinga punt for 49 yds , Koy Moore returns for no gain to the LSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 92 yds · 0:4597% → 98%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
96.8%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+31
96.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 31 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+41
96.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 41 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
98.4%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 20 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 1:452% → 2%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.5%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 5 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
98.4%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Joel Wilson for 1 yd to the CMich 31Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+14
98.4%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 14 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
98.5%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 11 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
98.4%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-1
98.5%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+5
98.5%
Jacob Sirmon run for 5 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 6
OPP 40
+1
98.4%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 1 yd to the LSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
98.8%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:181% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.7%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.7%
SIRMON, Jacob pass to the left complete for 8 yards to WILSON, Joel caught at the CMU27 and advanced to the CMU33 (STINGLEY JR., Derek). PENALTY CMU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on PIMPLETON, Kalil enforced 5 yards from the CMU25 to the CMU20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+15
98.7%
SIRMON, Jacob pass to the left incomplete intended for SULLIVAN, JaCorey thrown to the LSU40. PENALTY LSU Pass Interference on STINGLEY JR., Derek enforced 15 yards to the CMU35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
98.7%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+2
98.7%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Remi Simmons for 2 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
98.7%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:42
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+50
99.3%
Luke Elzinga punt for 50 yds, downed at the LSU 14 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) to the LSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 93 yds · 3:0899% → 100%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
99.2%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the LSU 8Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+4
99.2%
Max Johnson run for 4 yds to the LSU 12Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+15
99.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 15 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
99.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Deion Smith for 18 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST down pass incomplete for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.2%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
99.2%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+34
99.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Deion Smith for 34 yds to the CMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.2%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
99.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Devonta Lee for 21 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:471% → 0%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.5%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Myles Bailey for 10 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.5%
Jacob Sirmon sacked by BJ Ojulari and Jacobian Guillory for 0 yards to the CMich 28Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 17
OWN 28
+3
99.6%
Myles Bailey run for 3 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 14
OWN 31
0
99.6%
Jacob Sirmon sacked by Desmond Little and Jaquelin Roy for 0 yards to the CMich 30Similar
Q3 6:47
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
99.7%
Luke Elzinga punt for 60 yds, downed at the LSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18INT TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:06100% → 100%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
99.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Josh Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 8Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+6
99.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Malik Nabers for 6 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 6
OWN 14
0
99.7%
Max Johnson pass intercepted for a TD return for no gain for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
99.7%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 15
OWN 30
0
99.7%
Garrett Nussmeier sacked by Troy Hairston II for 0 yards to the LSU 20Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 25
OWN 20
+8
99.6%
Corey Kiner run for 8 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 17
OWN 28
0
99.7%
Avery Atkins punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:110% → 0%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
99.7%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 30Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 12
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Jacob Sirmon sacked by Jarell Cherry for 0 yards to the CMich 29Similar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 13
OWN 29
+3
99.8%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 3 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q3 1:26
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
99.8%
Luke Elzinga punt for 52 yds, downed at the LSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:31100% → 100%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
99.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
99.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:26
3RD & 10
OWN 16
0
99.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:55
4TH & 10
OWN 16
0
99.8%
Avery Atkins punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22TD
12 plays · 50 yds · 5:080% → 1%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
50
0
99.8%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
50
+2
99.8%
Myles Bailey run for 2 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+8
99.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 8 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
99.8%
Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the LSU 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+4
99.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Myles Bailey for 4 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+4
99.8%
Myles Bailey run for 4 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+3
99.8%
Myles Bailey run for 3 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.8%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+11
99.8%
Myles Bailey run for 11 yds to the LSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
99.8%
Marion Lukes run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 18
0
99.8%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 11
OPP 18
+18
98.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 18 yds for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 3:2899% → 100%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.9%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+26
98.9%
Corey Kiner run for 26 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
99.0%
Corey Kiner run for 12 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
99.0%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+28
99.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Koy Moore for 28 yds to the CMich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds for a TD (Preston Stafford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24DOWNS
13 plays · 54 yds · 5:310% → 0%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 5 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
99.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 5 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
99.9%
De'Javion Stepney run for 17 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
99.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to De'Javion Stepney for 1 yd to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+2
99.9%
De'Javion Stepney run for 2 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+15
99.9%
LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Darren Evans) to the LSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
99.9%
Myles Bailey run for 5 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+19
99.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 19 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST down pass incomplete for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+3
99.9%
De'Javion Stepney run for 3 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 7
OPP 21
0
99.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
99.9%
Josh Williams run for 5 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+10
99.9%
Josh Williams run for 10 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:54
Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 2 yds for a TD (Cade York KICK)
+4.6
TD · Q1 0:25
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 78 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK)
-2.8
TD · Q1 1:52
Max Johnson pass complete to Deion Smith for 40 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)
+2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com