Try the model
NIU

Northern Illinois 39 at Central Michigan 38

CMU
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of GameTD+10.2CMU 90.7%Daniel Richardson pass complete toJoel Wilson for 4 yds for a TD(Marshall Meeder KICK)AWAY 18 - HOME 35 · Q3 9:53
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:53 · Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 4 yds for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Pregame prior+8.0Home team on offense+18.6Garbage-time factor+7.8Score differential+9.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:53: Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 4 yds for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK) — CMU win probability +10.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:43: Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 75 yds for a TD — NIU win probability +9.6 pts (now 19%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:47: Clint Ratkovich run for 1 yd for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK) — NIU win probability +22.6 pts (now 57%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 6:01: Marshall Meeder 38 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +15.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:54: Kanon Woodill 26 yd FG GOOD — NIU win probability +42.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7NIU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 9:51NIU 4th & 6 at CMU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    32.1%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:02NIU 4th & 4 at CMU 7, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.7%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    27.3%−3.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:59NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:54CMU 4th & 3 at midfield, up 11
    Close callPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:31NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 12, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:34NIU 4th & 9 at CMU 43, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    14.2%−0.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:28NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.7%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:53CMU 4th & 4 at NIU 4, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    79.3%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    72.6%−7.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:14CMU 4th & 12 at CMU 25, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−2.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:14NIU 4th & 2 at CMU 20, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    20.1%−1.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−10.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:55NIU 4th & 6 at CMU 6, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−12.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:42CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 49, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:01CMU 4th & 11 at NIU 20, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−10.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    34.8%−21.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:31NIU 4th & 1 at midfield, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.1%−8.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:54NIU 4th & 1 at CMU 8, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−20.3
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−41.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:48CMU 4th & 10 at NIU 47, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.8%−4.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:03CMU 4th & 7 at NIU 22, down 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 37.6 ptsWent for it · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.1%−37.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    60.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−50.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:44CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:48NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:03CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:16CMU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:59CMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:53CMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:47NIU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1TD
3 plays · 89 yds · 1:1269% → 69%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
69.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 9 yds to the CMich 20Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+14
69.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 14 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
69.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 66 yds for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5631% → 33%
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.4%
Rocky Lombardi run for 6 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+16
69.3%
Jay Ducker run for 16 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
69.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 9 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
69.3%
Jay Ducker run for no gain to the CMich 44Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
69.3%
Clint Ratkovich run for 2 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
69.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tyrice RichieSimilar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
69.3%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
69.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Miles Joiner for no gain to the CMich 38Similar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 6
OPP 38
+14
69.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 14 yds to the CMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
69.4%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
69.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tyrice RichieSimilar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+21
67.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 21 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:3968% → 73%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
68.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 6 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Personal Foul (Raishein Thomas) to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
68.9%
Lew Nichols III run for 8 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+7
69.0%
Lew Nichols III run for 7 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
69.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Lew Nichols IIISimilar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
69.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 5 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+11
69.0%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 11 yds to the NoIll 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
69.2%
Kalil Pimpleton pass complete to Myles Bailey for 4 yds to the NoIll 14Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+8
69.2%
Myles Bailey run for 8 yds to the NoIll 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
69.2%
Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds to the NoIll 1Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.6%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4FG
12 plays · 76 yds · 4:5529% → 31%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+27
71.0%
Jay Ducker run for 27 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
70.4%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+7
70.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 7 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+5
70.2%
Rocky Lombardi run for 5 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
70.0%
PENALTY NIU False Start 5 yards from CMU46 to NIU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 15
OWN 49
-8
70.6%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by Troy Hairston II for a loss of 8 yards to the NoIll 41Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 23
OWN 41
+46
70.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 46 yds to the CMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
69.9%
Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the CMich 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 7
0
69.9%
Jay Ducker run for no gain to the CMich 7Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
70.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Clint RatkovichSimilar
Q2 14:02
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+26
69.0%
Kanon Woodill 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 0:4169% → 75%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
69.2%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the CMich 28Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
69.0%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Hunter BuczkowskiSimilar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+72
75.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 72 yds for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:1726% → 25%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
74.5%
Mason Blakemore run for 11 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
73.9%
Mason Blakemore run for 2 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
73.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tyrice RichieSimilar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
74.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Messiah TravisSimilar
Q2 11:59
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
75.3%
Matt Ference punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:0576% → 77%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
75.8%
Lew Nichols III run for 7 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+5
76.0%
Lew Nichols III pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 5 yds to the CMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
76.0%
PENALTY CMU False Start (Smith,Keegan) 5 yards from CMU23 to CMU18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+25
75.8%
Lew Nichols III run for 25 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
76.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 3
50
0
77.0%
Marion Lukes run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 3
50
0
76.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 3
50
0
77.4%
Luke Elzinga punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyrice Richie at the NoIll 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2323% → 22%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
77.3%
Jay Ducker run for no gain to the NoIll 8Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+4
77.4%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the NoIll 12Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 6
OWN 12
0
77.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Fabian McCraySimilar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 6
OWN 12
0
78.3%
Matt Ference punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the NoIll 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:3279% → 86%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
78.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Marion Lukes for 7 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+4
79.1%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
79.0%
Daniel Richardson run for 5 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 5
OPP 33
0
79.1%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Remi SimmonsSimilar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+10
78.8%
Lew Nichols III run for 10 yds to the NoIll 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
79.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the NoIll 22Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
79.1%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Joel WilsonSimilar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+22
86.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 22 yds for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10TD
16 plays · 51 yds · 4:2015% → 21%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
84.6%
Jay Ducker run for 13 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
84.1%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+2
84.2%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+18
84.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Miles Joiner for 28 yds to the CENTMICH 34 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Fabian McCray) to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
82.9%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by Gage Kreski for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 49Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+5
84.5%
Jay Ducker run for 5 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+1
83.9%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 9
OPP 43
+15
85.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 15 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
83.2%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 13
OPP 31
0
84.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tyrice RichieSimilar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 13
OPP 31
+11
85.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Messiah Travis for 11 yds to the CMich 20Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+5
82.6%
PENALTY CMU Offside (Bristol,Jacques) 5 yards from CMU20 to CMU15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
79.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 15 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11END OF HALF
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:2779% → 81%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
79.0%
Lew Nichols III run for 8 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+9
79.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 9 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
80.5%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 2 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+13
80.5%
Lew Nichols III pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 13 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
81.4%
run for no gain to the NoIll 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:3223% → 21%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
77.3%
Jay Ducker run for 11 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
76.5%
Jay Ducker run for 7 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
75.8%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
75.8%
Clint Ratkovich run for no gain to the NoIll 45Similar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
78.9%
Clint Ratkovich run for no gain to the NoIll 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:3581% → 91%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
81.2%
Lew Nichols III run for 4 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+20
81.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 20 yds to the NoIll 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
81.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 11 yds to the NoIll 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
81.3%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the NoIll 10Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
81.3%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Lew Nichols IIISimilar
Q3 12:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
80.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 6 yds to the NoIll 4Similar
Q3 9:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
90.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 4 yds for a TD (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
81.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 75 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2880% → 79%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
80.3%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 28Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+3
80.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 3 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 12
OWN 25
0
79.0%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
78.6%
Luke Elzinga punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16FG
15 plays · 50 yds · 7:1921% → 30%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
79.1%
Jay Ducker run for 15 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
78.3%
run for 15 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 25
OWN 44
+28
80.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 28 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
76.9%
Mason Blakemore run for 2 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 12
OPP 30
0
77.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tyrice RichieSimilar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+10
79.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 10 yds to the CMich 20Similar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+3
79.2%
Clint Ratkovich pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 3 yds to the CMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
76.8%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the CMich 16Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+7
76.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 7 yds to the CMich 9Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+2
78.1%
Clint Ratkovich run for 2 yds to the CMich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
76.8%
PENALTY NIU False Start (Soraghan,Liam) 5 yards from CMU07 to CMU12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+1
77.2%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the CMich 11Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
77.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Messiah Travis for 5 yds to the CMich 6Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
78.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Fabian McCraySimilar
Q3 0:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
70.1%
Kanon Woodill 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:0879% → 79%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
79.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 7 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+9
80.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 9 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
81.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 7 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
81.6%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
80.5%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the CMich 49Similar
Q4 13:42
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
79.2%
Luke Elzinga punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 2:5527% → 57%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
72.6%
Jay Ducker run for 16 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
71.3%
Jay Ducker run for 12 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
68.8%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the NoIll 48Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+50
70.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 50 yds to the CMich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
65.9%
Clint Ratkovich run for 1 yd to the CMich 1Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.3%
Clint Ratkovich run for 1 yd for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 4:4452% → 72%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
51.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Marion Lukes for 16 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
55.9%
Lew Nichols III run for 7 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+5
57.0%
Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
57.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Dallas DixonSimilar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
57.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 9 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+3
56.9%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
57.7%
PENALTY CMU False Start (Goedeke,Luke) 5 yards from NIU36 to NIU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+22
54.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 22 yds to the NoIll 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
59.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the NoIll 20Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 11
OPP 20
0
59.4%
Myles Bailey run for no gain to the NoIll 20Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 11
OPP 20
0
56.6%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+38
72.1%
Marshall Meeder 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20FG
18 plays · 62 yds · 5:0235% → 80%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
64.9%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+2
63.4%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+5
64.2%
Rocky Lombardi run for 5 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
62.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Mohamed ToureSimilar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
63.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 7 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+2
60.7%
Rocky Lombardi run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 1
50
+7
64.5%
Trayvon Rudolph run for 7 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+26
61.7%
Jay Ducker run for 26 yds to the CMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
55.6%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the CMich 14Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+3
54.4%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the CMich 11Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+3
56.9%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the CMich 8Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+26
20.4%
Kanon Woodill 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21FUMBLE
12 plays · 32 yds · 0:4536% → 27%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
35.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 15 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
39.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+12
37.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 12 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
42.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
41.7%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Lew Nichols IIISimilar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
38.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Joel WilsonSimilar
Q4 0:48
4TH & 10
OPP 47
+22
35.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 22 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
47.6%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
47.3%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Joel WilsonSimilar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+3
43.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 3 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+20
26.7%
Luke Elzinga run for 20 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -28 yds · 0:0393% → 93%
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-28
6.6%
PENALTY NIU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Taylor,Demond) NIU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 28 yards from NIU42 to NIU14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 38
OWN 14
0
7.1%
run for no gain to the NoIll 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:54
Kanon Woodill 26 yd FG GOOD
-42.1
TD · Q4 10:47
Clint Ratkovich run for 1 yd for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)
-22.6
FG · Q4 6:01
Marshall Meeder 38 yd FG GOOD
+15.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com