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TOL

Toledo 23 at Central Michigan 26

CMU
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGFGFGTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:53 · Lew Nichols III run for 14 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+21.5+10.80−10.8−21.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 9Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior−12.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Time remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:39: Daniel Richardson pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 16 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK) — CMU win probability +5.3 pts (now 43%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 10:19: Thomas Cluckey 41 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +10.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Marshall Meeder 46 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +5.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 4:34: Thomas Cluckey 50 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +5.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:35: Dequan Finn run for 18 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +39.9 pts (now 56%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 13TOL made the numbers' call on 7 of 13
  1. Q1 14:53CMU 4th & 4 at TOL 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    38.3%−0.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    38.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:53CMU 4th & 8 at TOL 29, tied
    Close callWent for it · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    38.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    38.1%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:33TOL 4th & 10 at CMU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:51CMU 4th & 6 at TOL 40, up 4
    Close callPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    44.8%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:50TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 2, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:19TOL 4th & 18 at CMU 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−1.4
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:25CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:11TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 29, down 11
    Close callPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:09CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 19, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:09TOL 4th & 6 at CMU 25, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    37.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−3.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:48CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:12TOL 4th & 14 at CMU 41, down 11
    Close callPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:33TOL 4th & 14 at CMU 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−2.3
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    17.6%−7.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:24CMU 4th & 5 at TOL 33, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.1%−0.5
    49% to make
    Punt
    70.1%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:48TOL 4th & 26 at TOL 16, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−3.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:13CMU 4th & 12 at midfield, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  17. Q3 8:13TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 33, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.6%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.8%
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:26CMU 4th & 17 at CMU 6, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−4.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 15:00TOL 4th & 1 at CMU 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    16.3%−4.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    16.2%−4.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:58TOL 4th & 2 at CMU 5, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.3%−1.9
    92% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−10.0
    average punt
  21. Q4 10:01CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  22. Q4 8:42TOL 4th & 22 at TOL 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−4.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  23. Q4 6:12CMU 4th & 2 at TOL 26, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.4%−1.5
    64% to make
    Punt
    79.2%−8.6
    average punt
  24. Q4 4:34TOL 4th & 7 at CMU 32, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.7%−0.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−1.0
    average punt
  25. Q4 2:58CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%
    average punt
  26. Q4 0:11CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−2.7
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TOL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:39CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 0:35TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−5.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 6:1437% → 43%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
37.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Remi Simmons for 15 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
37.3%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 36Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
37.3%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 37Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+12
37.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 12 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
37.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Levar Gumms for 2 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
37.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Marion Lukes for no gain to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+4
37.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 4 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 14:53
4TH & 4
OPP 45
+14
37.3%
Lew Nichols III run for 14 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
37.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
37.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 8
OPP 29
0
37.3%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 14:53
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+8
37.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 8 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
37.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+16
42.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 16 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:0658% → 58%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
41.9%
Bryant Koback run for 9 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+1
41.4%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the Toled 31Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+15
41.8%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+22
41.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 22 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
40.9%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the CMich 32Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+1
40.9%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the CMich 31Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
41.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+48
42.2%
Thomas Cluckey 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 4:4242% → 44%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
42.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 15 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
42.8%
Kalil Pimpleton run for no gain to the CMich 46Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+10
42.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 10 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
43.0%
Daniel Richardson run for 1 yd to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+1
43.0%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 8
OPP 42
-10
42.7%
Richardson,Daniel rush for 2 yards loss to the UTo44 (Bauer,Nate), out of bounds PENALTY CMU Holding (Raimann,Bernhard) 10 yards from UTo42 to CMU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 18
OWN 48
+12
41.9%
Lew Nichols III run for 12 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q1 0:51
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
44.3%
Luke Elzinga punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0156% → 54%
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
44.4%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 3Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
44.6%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to AJ HarrisonSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+1
45.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 1 yd to the Toled 2Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 9
OWN 2
0
46.1%
Bailey Flint punt for 19 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:0947% → 47%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
46.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 9 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+4
46.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 4 yds to the Toled 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
46.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 4 yds to the Toled 4Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
46.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the Toled 6Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
47.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 6 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:1455% → 44%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+33
45.2%
Bryant Koback run for 33 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
43.3%
Finn,Dequan pass incomplete to Winstead,Isaiah broken up by Bowens III,Richard PENALTY CMU Personal Foul (Brown,Tico) 15 yards from CMU30 to CMU15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
43.1%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the CMich 14Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+2
43.1%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the CMich 12Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 7
OPP 12
-10
43.8%
Finn,Dequan rush for 12 yards gain to the CMU00, End Of Play PENALTY UTo Holding (Gurman,Vitaliy) 10 yards from CMU12 to CMU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 17
OPP 22
-5
44.9%
PENALTY UTo False Start (Dumont,Lavel) 5 yards from CMU22 to CMU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 22
OPP 27
+4
45.1%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the CMich 23Similar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 18
OPP 23
+41
55.8%
Thomas Cluckey 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4857% → 56%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.9%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
56.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
56.1%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Dallas DixonSimilar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+7
56.0%
Luke Elzinga punt for 58 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 7 yds to the Toled 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:1444% → 41%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
56.1%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+1
55.3%
Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the Toled 30Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+1
56.0%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
59.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0260% → 59%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
59.8%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
59.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
59.0%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 5
OWN 24
-5
58.1%
PENALTY CMU False Start (Sturkey,Rolliann) 5 yards from CMU24 to CMU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
58.8%
Luke Elzinga punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:0043% → 38%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
57.2%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
57.5%
Dequan Finn run for no gain to the CMich 47Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+18
58.3%
Dequan Finn run for 18 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
55.8%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
56.3%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
57.0%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 6
OPP 25
0
62.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2163% → 63%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.7%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the CMich 25Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
62.6%
PENALTY CMU False Start (Cossou,Keegan) 5 yards from CMU25 to CMU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+6
62.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 6 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
61.6%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Dallas DixonSimilar
Q2 2:48
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
63.2%
Luke Elzinga punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 1:3636% → 32%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
63.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 19 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
62.2%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the CMich 49Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 11
OPP 49
0
62.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+12
63.6%
Dequan Finn run for 12 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
62.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
62.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 7
OPP 34
-7
64.2%
Dequan Finn sacked by Thomas Incoom for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 41Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 14
OPP 41
0
68.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 1:1269% → 76%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+34
68.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 34 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
70.2%
Lew Nichols III run for 4 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
70.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 5 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+4
69.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 4 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
70.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Remi Simmons for 4 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
70.8%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Lew Nichols IIISimilar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+16
69.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 16 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
71.1%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Joel WilsonSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-4
71.1%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 28Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 28
+46
75.9%
Marshall Meeder 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14FG
8 plays · 5 yds · 2:1531% → 30%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
68.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+12
69.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 12 yds to the CMich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
68.7%
Finn,Dequan pass incomplete to Winstead,Isaiah PENALTY CMU Roughing The Passer (Siddiq,Amir) 4 yards from CMU07 to CMU03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
68.7%
TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 14:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+9
69.3%
Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the CMich 3Similar
Q3 14:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-11
69.9%
Dequan Finn sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the CMich 14Similar
Q3 12:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
70.0%
Thomas Cluckey 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15FG
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:0970% → 71%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+42
70.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 42 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
72.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Remi Simmons for 5 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 5
OPP 33
0
72.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Joel WilsonSimilar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
71.3%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+51
71.3%
Marshall Meeder 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -16 yds · 1:3030% → 26%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
69.6%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-7
69.9%
Dequan Finn sacked by Jacques Bristol for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 25Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 17
OWN 25
-9
71.6%
Dequan Finn sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the Toled 16Similar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 26
OWN 16
0
73.9%
Bailey Flint punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the Toled 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3575% → 74%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
75.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 4 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-10
75.0%
Nichols,Lew rush for 25 yards gain to the UTo19 (Bauer,Nate; Ford,Zachary) PENALTY CMU Holding (Cossou,Keegan) 10 yards from UTo44 to CMU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 16
OWN 46
+4
74.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 12
50
0
73.1%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 12
50
0
73.5%
Luke Elzinga punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18TD
12 plays · 87 yds · 5:1227% → 27%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
73.2%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+4
73.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 4 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+6
74.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 6 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
72.9%
Dequan Finn sacked by Troy Hairston II for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 24Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+9
73.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 9 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
72.8%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 3
OWN 33
+7
73.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 7 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+49
71.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 49 yds to the CMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
68.4%
Micah Kelly run for 5 yds to the CMich 6Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+3
68.4%
Micah Kelly run for 3 yds to the CMich 3Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
72.8%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:2577% → 76%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
77.2%
Lew Nichols III run for 6 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 4
OWN 19
-5
77.4%
PENALTY CMU False Start (Goedeke,Luke) 5 yards from CMU19 to CMU14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
77.0%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Remi SimmonsSimilar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 9
OWN 14
-8
76.0%
Daniel Richardson sacked by Maxen Hook for a loss of 8 yards to the CMich 6Similar
Q3 1:26
4TH & 17
OWN 6
0
76.3%
Luke Elzinga punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the CMich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 4:2825% → 25%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
74.7%
Bryant Koback run for 9 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 1
OPP 38
-5
74.1%
PENALTY UTo Illegal Snap (Harris,Bryce) 5 yards from CMU38 to CMU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+2
77.1%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+3
77.8%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+7
79.1%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+18
76.0%
Bryant Koback run for 18 yds to the CMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
75.4%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the CMich 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
75.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+8
77.7%
Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q4 11:58
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+23
74.9%
Thomas Cluckey 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:5782% → 82%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for no gain to the CMich 25Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
82.0%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 26Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+3
81.0%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 3 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q4 10:01
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
81.8%
Luke Elzinga punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 1:1922% → 18%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
78.2%
Koback,Bryant rush for 13 yards gain to the UTo41 (Reed,Devonni; Siddiq,Amir) PENALTY UTo Holding (Turner,Jamal) 10 yards from UTo28 to UTo18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 20
OWN 18
0
79.0%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 20
OWN 18
0
79.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (Darius Alexander) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 20
OWN 18
+3
80.6%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q4 10:01
4TH & 17
OWN 21
-5
81.3%
PENALTY UTo Delay Of Game 5 yards from UTo21 to UTo16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:42
4TH & 22
OWN 16
0
82.0%
Bailey Flint punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23FG
6 plays · 40 yds · 2:3085% → 91%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
84.8%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+32
84.5%
Kalil Pimpleton pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 32 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
87.2%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
87.1%
Kalil Pimpleton run for 9 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+1
86.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the Toled 26Similar
Q4 6:12
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+44
90.6%
Marshall Meeder 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24FG
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:3310% → 16%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+28
89.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 28 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
87.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 2 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+1
87.5%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
88.8%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+50
83.8%
Thomas Cluckey 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:3690% → 93%
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.8%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 26Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
89.6%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 27Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+3
88.9%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
92.5%
Luke Elzinga punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:2312% → 56%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
88.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 11 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+28
86.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 28 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
84.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 9 yds to the CMich 23Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+3
83.3%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
83.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
83.9%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+18
44.1%
Dequan Finn run for 18 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:2459% → 55%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.1%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Joel WilsonSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
58.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 7 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
58.5%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 2 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q4 0:11
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
55.0%
Luke Elzinga punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
48.2%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+51.8
TD · Q4 0:35
Dequan Finn run for 18 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
-39.9
FG · Q2 10:19
Thomas Cluckey 41 yd FG GOOD
+10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com