Try the model
CMU

Central Michigan 24 at Missouri 34

MIZ
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:29 · Luke Elzinga punt for 47 yds, fair catch by D'ionte Smith at the Misso 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Pregame prior+11.9Home team on offense+3.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Time remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:08: Lew Nichols III run for 18 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK) — CMU win probability +12.1 pts (now 38%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:25: Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 30 yds for a TD, (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +6.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:57: Elijah Young run for 32 yds for a TD, (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +11.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:52: Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 6 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK) — CMU win probability +16.7 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 7:58: Connor Bazelak pass complete to Niko Hea for 2 yds for a TD, (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +13.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 8 of 9CMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 9:43MIZ 4th & 26 at CMU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    81.0%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:54CMU 4th & 28 at MIZ 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    20.6%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:31MIZ 4th & 8 at MIZ 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:30MIZ 4th & 12 at CMU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    77.1%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:56CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:46MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:54CMU 4th & 17 at MIZ 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    29.3%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:02MIZ 4th & 8 at CMU 36, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.3%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:05CMU 4th & 13 at CMU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−2.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:25MIZ 4th & 1 at CMU 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    74.2%−1.8
    70% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−7.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:35MIZ 4th & 11 at MIZ 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−2.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:29CMU 4th & 16 at CMU 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−3.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:54CMU 4th & 25 at CMU 10, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:07MIZ 4th & 8 at MIZ 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:07CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 42, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:30CMU 4th & 14 at MIZ 33, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.8%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:59MIZ 4th & 17 at CMU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.8
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    92.7%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 14:31MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:34CMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:08CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:25MIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:57MIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:52CMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.9%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:58MIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:2983% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+63
83.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to D'ionte Smith for 63 yds to the CMich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
83.2%
Tyler Badie run for 12 yds for a TD, (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5717% → 18%
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
83.2%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 12 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+27
83.2%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 27 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+27
83.2%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 27 yds to the Misso 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
83.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the Misso 7Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
82.3%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 7 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:4583% → 82%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
82.5%
Tyler Badie run for 8 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+9
82.6%
Tyler Badie run for 9 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
82.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Chance Luper for 20 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
82.8%
, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY MIZ Holding on #31 D.Smith CMU Pass Interference on #25 D.McNary , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
82.8%
Tyler Badie run for no gain to the CMich 29Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
82.8%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
82.7%
Connor Bazelak sacked by Thomas Incoom for 0 yards to the CMich 45Similar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
82.7%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Dishon McNary) to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 26
OPP 45
0
81.6%
Grant McKinniss punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
12 plays · 45 yds · 5:4918% → 20%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
81.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+2
81.7%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Marion Lukes for 2 yds to the CMich 17Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+29
81.8%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Darius Bracy for 29 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
81.4%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 6
50
+3
81.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+7
81.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 7 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
81.3%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+15
81.4%
run for 15 yds to the Misso 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
81.3%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 1 yd to the Misso 24Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
81.3%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the Misso 24Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
81.4%
Jacob Sirmon sacked for 0 yards to the Misso 43Similar
Q1 3:54
4TH & 28
OPP 43
0
79.9%
Luke Elzinga punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2380% → 79%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
79.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Niko Hea for 6 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-4
79.9%
Connor Bazelak run for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 22Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
79.4%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:31
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
78.8%
Grant McKinniss punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6INT
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:3421% → 22%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
78.8%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 18 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
78.1%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
78.4%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 3 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q1 0:57
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
77.7%
Jacob Sirmon pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:2780% → 78%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 4
OPP 47
+6
80.0%
Tyler Badie run for 6 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
79.8%
Connor Bazelak sacked by John Wesley Whiteside for 0 yards to the CMich 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 42
-3
79.6%
Elijah Young run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 45
+2
78.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 2 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 12
OPP 43
0
77.7%
Grant McKinniss punt for 33 yds, downed at the CMich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:3423% → 23%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
77.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 11Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+28
77.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 28 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
76.7%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
76.2%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
76.8%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:56
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
77.3%
Luke Elzinga punt for 38 yds, fair catch by D'ionte Smith at the Misso 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:1078% → 77%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
77.6%
Tyler Badie run for 8 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+12
78.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 12 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
78.6%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 42Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
78.1%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+6
77.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to D'ionte Smith for 6 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
77.0%
Grant McKinniss punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 3:3824% → 38%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
75.7%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 14 yds to the CMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+27
75.6%
Lew Nichols III run for 27 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
74.0%
Marion Lukes run for 14 yds to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
73.6%
Kalil Pimpleton run for 1 yd to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
73.6%
Jacob Sirmon sacked by Devin Nicholson for 0 yards to the Misso 34Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+16
74.6%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 16 yds to the Misso 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
62.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 18 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:3866% → 75%
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
66.0%
Mookie Cooper run for 4 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+9
67.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Chance Luper for 9 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
67.6%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+13
67.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Barrett Banister for 13 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
68.2%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 14
OPP 43
0
66.9%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 14
OPP 43
+11
66.1%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Elijah Young for 11 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q2 6:03
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+7
66.8%
#8 C.Bazelak pass up the middle incomplete intended for #6 K.Chism, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY CMU Pass Interference on #19 D.Kent enforced at the spot of the foul for 7 yards from the CMU25 to the CMU25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
69.1%
Mookie Cooper run for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 30Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+30
75.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 30 yds for a TD, (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 1:3129% → 29%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.0%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
70.6%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+18
71.6%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 18 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
68.7%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
69.3%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 7 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+10
68.2%
Lew Nichols III run for 10 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
67.6%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
67.2%
Jacob Sirmon sacked by Isaiah McGuire for 0 yards to the Misso 40Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 12
OPP 40
0
68.9%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 12
OPP 40
-5
70.6%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Delay Of Game (Luke Elzinga) to the Misso 45Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 17
OPP 45
0
70.9%
Luke Elzinga punt for 30 yds, fair catch by D'ionte Smith at the Misso 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13FG
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:5273% → 76%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
72.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Alonzo McCoy) to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
73.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 10 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
74.5%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 22 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
75.7%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
75.6%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+2
74.4%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 2 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 8
OPP 36
+53
75.8%
Harrison Mevis 53 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15PUNT
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:5525% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
75.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 7 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
76.7%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:05
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+2
77.3%
Luke Elzinga punt for 38 yds , D'ionte Smith returns for 2 yds to the Misso 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 35 yds · 1:4078% → 77%
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+26
77.8%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 26 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
79.0%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the CMich 31Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
79.0%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+8
78.0%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Tyler Badie for 8 yds to the CMich 23Similar
Q3 12:25
4TH & 1
OPP 23
0
76.5%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17INT
5 plays · 48 yds · 2:0825% → 29%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
74.8%
Jacob Sirmon sacked by Blaze Alldredge for 0 yards to the CMich 16Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 17
OWN 16
+48
75.2%
run for 48 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
72.0%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
72.0%
Lew Nichols III run for 7 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 3
OPP 29
0
71.0%
Jacob Sirmon pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:4275% → 73%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
74.6%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Misso 5Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+11
74.4%
Tyler Badie run for 11 yds to the Misso 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
74.9%
Tyler Badie run for 4 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+16
74.8%
Tyler Badie run for 16 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
75.7%
Elijah Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 35Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-3
74.9%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Mookie Cooper for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 32Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+3
73.6%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 3 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
72.6%
punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 2:0627% → 25%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
73.1%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 19Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
73.6%
Jacob Sirmon sacked by Akial Byers and Blaze Alldredge for 0 yards to the CMich 14Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 16
OWN 14
0
74.7%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for no gain to the CMich 14Similar
Q3 4:29
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
74.9%
Luke Elzinga punt for 47 yds, fair catch by D'ionte Smith at the Misso 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:3275% → 88%
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
74.8%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Misso 40Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+6
74.7%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Chance Luper for 6 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+3
75.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 3 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
76.2%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
75.7%
#8 C.Bazelak pass incomplete intended for #6 K.Chism, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY CMU Pass Interference on #25 D.McNary enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards from the CMU40 to the CMU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
76.7%
Tyler Badie run for 3 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+5
76.7%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offsides (TEAM) to the CMich 32Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+32
88.4%
Elijah Young run for 32 yds for a TD, (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21TD
13 plays · 73 yds · 4:5914% → 32%
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
85.7%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 18 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
84.7%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the CMich 40Similar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+21
85.8%
Marion Lukes run for 21 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
85.2%
Marion Lukes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+1
85.3%
#3 J.Sirmon pass incomplete intended for #83 J.Wilson broken up by #11 D.Nicholson at the MIZ40; QB hurried by #25 B.Alldredge, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY MIZ Pass Interference on #11 D.Nicholson enforced at the spot of the foul for 1 yards from the MIZ39 to the MIZ39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
85.2%
Marion Lukes run for 9 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 30
0
83.9%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+1
85.1%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the Misso 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
83.9%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+19
84.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 19 yds to the Misso 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
83.9%
Darius Bracy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
84.3%
Jacob Sirmon run for 5 yds to the Misso 6Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
67.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 6 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5475% → 92%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
75.2%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Keke Chism for 6 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
76.4%
Tyler Badie run for 9 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
77.3%
Tyler Badie run for 1 yd to the Misso 41Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+22
76.6%
Tyler Badie run for 22 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
78.5%
Tyler Badie run for 12 yds to the CMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
79.4%
Tyler Badie run for 6 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+4
79.3%
Elijah Young run for 4 yds to the CMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
79.3%
Mookie Cooper run for 1 yd to the CMich 14Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+12
79.3%
#8 C.Bazelak pass incomplete intended for #48 N.Hea thrown to the CMU0, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY CMU Pass Interference on #29 T.Jones enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards from the CMU14 to the CMU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.3%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Niko Hea for 2 yds for a TD, (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 1:049% → 7%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
90.7%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 23Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
90.9%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
91.5%
Jacob Sirmon sacked by Blaze Alldredge for 0 yards to the CMich 10Similar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 25
OWN 10
0
92.7%
punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4793% → 92%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
92.5%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 39Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 14
OWN 39
0
92.0%
Connor Bazelak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+11
91.5%
Tyler Badie run for 11 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 3
50
-5
91.6%
MISSOURI Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Misso 45Similar
Q4 5:07
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
92.2%
Grant McKinniss punt for 53 yds, downed at the CMich 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25FG
17 plays · 65 yds · 3:377% → 11%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+39
92.8%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 39 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
91.2%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 42Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
91.2%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
91.9%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:07
4TH & 9
OWN 42
+9
93.2%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 9 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
90.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-5
90.6%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the CMich 49Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 12
OWN 49
0
91.1%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+10
92.0%
#3 J.Sirmon pass incomplete; QB hurried by #15 J.Walker, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY MIZ Illegal use of the hands enforced 10 yards from the CMU49 to the MIZ41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+12
91.0%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 12 yds to the Misso 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
89.4%
MISSOURI Penalty, Offsides (Ennis Rakestraw Jr.) to the Misso 24Similar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 7
OPP 26
0
89.4%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
89.4%
Kalil Pimpleton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 7
OPP 26
0
90.7%
Jacob Sirmon sacked by Shawn Robinson for 0 yards to the Misso 33Similar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 5
OPP 36
0
90.2%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
90.6%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 14
OPP 33
+51
89.3%
Marshall Meeder 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 26FG
5 plays · 62 yds · 0:2995% → 95%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+69
94.8%
Tyler Badie run for 69 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
95.9%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 22Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 12
OPP 22
-3
95.9%
Elijah Young run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 25Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 15
OPP 25
-2
95.5%
Tyler Badie run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 27Similar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 17
OPP 27
+44
94.8%
Harrison Mevis 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 27END OF GAME
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:595% → 6%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.0%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Joel Wilson for 7 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+14
94.1%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 14 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
94.2%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 7 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+4
93.2%
Jacob Sirmon pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 4 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
93.6%
Jacob Sirmon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
93.7%
Jacob Sirmon sacked by Mekhi Wingo for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:52
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 6 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK)
-16.7
TD · Q4 7:58
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Niko Hea for 2 yds for a TD, (Harrison Mevis KICK)
+13
TD · Q2 6:08
Lew Nichols III run for 18 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK)
-12.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com