Kentucky

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1130th
  Defense+0.1357th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense40.2%24th
  Defense44.1%34th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2675th
  Defense+1.1280th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1257th
  Defense+0.1625th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1124th
  Defense+0.1277th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense45.2%28th
  Defense49.6%27th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense30.9%24th
  Defense30.7%68th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.7031st
  Defense3.0921st
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense22.6%19th
  Defense18.0%26th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.4%25th
  Defense2.7%81st

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Kentucky allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   UTM
2. W
   OHIO
3. L
   FLA
4. W
   VAN
5. W
   SC
6. W
   ULM
7. L
   LSU
8. L
   MSST
9. L
   MIZ
10. L
    UGA
11. L
    TENN
12. L
    LOU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Kentucky.

Players, 2014

1. Patrick TowlesQB411 plays · +0.216 pts/play · 51st of 199 QBs
   1.66WAR1.05 to 2.32
2. Austin MacGinnisPK22 plays · +0.568 pts/play · 4th of 114 kickers
   0.23WAR0.18 to 0.30
3. Stanley WilliamsRB77 plays · +0.135 pts/play · 119th of 350 RBs
   0.20WAR0.12 to 0.27
4. Demarco RobinsonWR43 plays · +0.167 pts/play · 140th of 469 WRs
   0.13WAR0.09 to 0.20
5. Jojo KempRB52 plays · +0.138 pts/play · 174th of 350 RBs
   0.13WAR0.09 to 0.18
6. Landon FosterP49 plays · +0.146 pts/play · 24th of 94 punters
   0.13WAR0.05 to 0.22
7. Braylon HeardRB84 plays · +0.079 pts/play · 183rd of 350 RBs
   0.12WAR0.07 to 0.19
8. Ryan TimmonsWR50 plays · +0.096 pts/play · 232nd of 469 WRs
   0.09WAR0.02 to 0.17

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Kentucky's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Kentucky's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.06 of the 0.10 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at LOUQ4 9:48 4th & 2 at LOU 10, down 5Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
2. vs VANQ3 11:08 4th & 1 at UK 48, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
3. at LOUQ3 4:07 4th & 2 at UK 40, down 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
4. vs MSSTQ4 5:26 4th & 4 at MSST 19, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.2 pts
5. at MIZQ3 0:00 4th & 3 at UK 47, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
6. vs ULMQ2 0:13 4th & 5 at ULM 37, up 10Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.5 pts
7. at MIZQ4 2:52 4th & 20 at MIZ 36, down 10Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.4 pts
8. at MIZQ4 4:40 4th & 4 at MIZ 15, down 17Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

77th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Kentucky's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   UTM
2. W

   OHIO
3. L

   FLA
4. W

   VAN
5. W

   SC
6. W

   ULM
7. L

   LSU
8. L

   MSST
9. L

   MIZ
10. L

    UGA
11. L

    TENN
12. L

    LOU

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Kentucky's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.75
• Possession & field position−0.04
• Clock−0.06
• Timeouts+0.12
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.50

Game by game

• UTMW 59-14 vs UTM93% → 100%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +9
• OHIOW 20-3 vs OHIO75% → 99%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +30, Timeouts −1
• FLAL 30-36 at FLA12% → 13%Before kickoff −38 · On the field +2: Scoreboard −23, Timeouts +13
• VANW 17-7 vs VAN87% → 96%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +19
• SCW 45-38 vs SC32% → 97%Before kickoff −18 · On the field +65: Scoreboard +43, Timeouts +4
• ULMW 48-14 vs ULM93% → 100%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +10
• LSUL 3-41 at LSU23% → 0%Before kickoff −27 · On the field −23: Scoreboard −25, Timeouts −1
• MSSTL 31-45 vs MSST19% → 2%Before kickoff −31 · On the field −17: Scoreboard −29, Clock −1
• MIZL 10-20 at MIZ36% → 3%Before kickoff −14 · On the field −33: Scoreboard −32, Timeouts −2
• UGAL 31-63 vs UGA19% → 0%Before kickoff −31 · On the field −19: Scoreboard −24, Clock −1
• TENNL 16-50 at TENN29% → 0%Before kickoff −21 · On the field −29: Scoreboard −31
• LOUL 40-44 at LOU20% → 4%Before kickoff −30 · On the field −16: Scoreboard −21, Timeouts −2

Points of win probability, from Kentucky's side.

Closest call

APSU 13-49 UK (2016) - Kentucky dropped to a 0.7% win probability before pulling it out.