Try the model
UK

Kentucky 10 at Missouri 20

MIZ
2014 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2014 · Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:35 · Patrick Towles sacked by Shane Ray for a loss of 11 yards to the Kent 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 187Home team on offense+26.1Pregame prior+0.1Garbage-time factor+7.9Score differential+7.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:56: Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK) — MIZ win probability +4.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:26: Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 26 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK) — MIZ win probability +7.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 3:42: Andrew Baggett 41 yd FG GOOD — MIZ win probability +5.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:15: Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 45 — MIZ win probability +3.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:26: Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +7.3 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 10UK made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 9:58MIZ 4th & 10 at UK 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    68.4%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:04UK 4th & 12 at UK 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:24MIZ 4th & 7 at UK 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    67.6%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:11UK 4th & 7 at UK 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:35UK 4th & 8 at MIZ 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:04UK 4th & 6 at UK 35, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:14MIZ 4th & 3 at UK 39, up 11
    Close callPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    79.6%−0.7
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:34MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 37, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:15UK 4th & 8 at MIZ 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.1%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    18.8%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:14MIZ 4th & 22 at MIZ 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−3.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:31UK 4th & 8 at MIZ 32, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    17.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:42MIZ 4th & 2 at UK 23, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.6%−0.7
    70% to make
    Punt
    80.4%−4.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:30UK 4th & 9 at UK 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:08MIZ 4th & 14 at MIZ 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−2.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:00UK 4th & 3 at UK 47, down 14
    Close callPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:31MIZ 4th & 3 at MIZ 10, up 14
    Close callPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:30UK 4th & 11 at UK 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:23MIZ 4th & 3 at UK 3, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.2%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    91.6%−4.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:40UK 4th & 4 at MIZ 15, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%−0.3
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−1.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:52UK 4th & 20 at MIZ 36, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%
    42% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:54UK 4th & 1 at MIZ 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    5.5%−1.6
    74% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−3.2
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:18MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:35UK 4th & 8 at MIZ 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 12:56MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:26MIZ Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 3:26UK Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1PUNT
15 plays · 38 yds · 4:4564% → 64%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
64.2%
Marcus Murphy run for 7 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 3
OWN 28
0
64.2%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+3
64.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 3 yds to the Misso 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
64.2%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
64.2%
Marcus Murphy run for 4 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+13
64.1%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 13 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
64.4%
Marcus Murphy run for 7 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+2
64.5%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+2
64.4%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
64.5%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
64.5%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Gavin Otte, broken up by Blake McClainSimilar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 8
OPP 39
-5
64.4%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Mitch Morse) to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 13
OPP 44
+3
64.1%
Maty Mauk run for 3 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
63.9%
Christian Brinser punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Demarco Robinson at the Kent 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:4036% → 36%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
63.9%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 13Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+10
63.9%
Stanley Williams run for 10 yds to the Kent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
63.8%
Mikel Horton run for no gain to the Kent 23Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
63.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian Baker, broken up by Kenya DennisSimilar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 10
OWN 23
-2
63.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 21Similar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 12
OWN 21
0
64.1%
Landon Foster punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Marcus Murphy at the Misso 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:3064% → 64%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
63.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for 1 yd to the Misso 35Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+6
63.7%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Sean Culkin for 6 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+6
63.9%
Russell Hansbrough run for 6 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
64.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 7
50
+7
64.4%
Ish Witter run for 7 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-12
64.2%
Maty Mauk sacked by Alvin Dupree and Fred Tiller for a loss of 12 yards to the MISSOURI 45 MISSOURI Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Maty Mauk) to the Misso 45Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 22
OWN 45
+11
63.7%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for 11 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+4
63.7%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Sean Culkin for 4 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q1 4:24
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
63.5%
Christian Brinser punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Demarco Robinson at the Kent 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:0337% → 37%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
63.2%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the Kent 15Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+4
63.2%
Patrick Towles run for 4 yds to the Kent 19Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 5
OWN 19
-5
63.4%
KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (Jordan Swindle) to the Kent 14Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+3
63.5%
Patrick Towles run for 3 yds to the Kent 17Similar
Q1 2:11
4TH & 7
OWN 17
+10
63.5%
Landon Foster punt for 48 yds , Marcus Murphy returns for 10 yds to the Misso 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 4:0464% → 70%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
64.4%
Marcus Murphy run for 3 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+1
64.5%
Maty Mauk run for 1 yd to the Misso 49Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+9
63.9%
Maty Mauk run for 9 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
64.7%
Marcus Murphy run for 2 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+1
64.7%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Marcus Murphy for 1 yd to the Kent 39Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+15
64.5%
Maty Mauk run for 15 yds to the Kent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
65.1%
Marcus Murphy run for 3 yds to the Kent 21Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+18
65.1%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for 18 yds to the Kent 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
70.1%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:1232% → 36%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
68.2%
Mikel Horton run for 27 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
66.6%
Mikel Horton run for 16 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
65.9%
Stanley Williams run for 8 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 2
OPP 24
-1
65.7%
Stanley Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 25Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 3
OPP 25
-5
66.8%
KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (Nick Haynes) to the Misso 30Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
67.1%
Braylon Heard run for no gain to the Misso 30Similar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+47
63.9%
Austin MacGinnis 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 4:0465% → 76%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
65.2%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+13
65.4%
Maty Mauk run for 13 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
66.5%
Maty Mauk run for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 42Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+7
66.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Sean Culkin for 7 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+12
66.7%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 12 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
68.0%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Nate Brown for 11 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
68.5%
Marcus Murphy run for 2 yds to the Kent 26Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+26
76.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 26 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:1326% → 23%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
74.3%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Demarco Robinson, broken up by Shane RaySimilar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+16
74.5%
Mikel Horton run for 16 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
75.1%
Mikel Horton run for 1 yd to the Kent 32Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
75.5%
Mikel Horton run for no gain to the Kent 32Similar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+3
76.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Braylon Heard for 3 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
77.1%
Landon Foster punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:4677% → 78%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+26
76.6%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Nate Brown for 11 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Personal Foul (Josh Forrest) to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
78.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for no gain to the Kent 46Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
78.1%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Marcus MurphySimilar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+7
77.1%
Marcus Murphy run for 7 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
77.5%
Christian Brinser punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Demarco Robinson at the Kent 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10INT
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:4223% → 24%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
76.8%
Stanley Williams run for 9 yds to the Kent 19Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+1
76.5%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the Kent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
77.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for 13 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
76.4%
Patrick Towles pass intercepted Aarion Penton return for no gain to the Misso 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0678% → 78%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
78.0%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
77.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for 4 yds to the Misso 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2122% → 21%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.8%
Patrick Towles run for no gain to the Kent 25Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
78.2%
Patrick Towles run for 3 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q3 13:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-3
78.8%
Patrick Towles run for 2 yds to the Kent 30 KENTUCKY Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Patrick Towles) to the Kent 25Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
79.1%
Landon Foster punt for 41 yds , Marcus Murphy returns for no gain to the Misso 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5279% → 78%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
79.2%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
79.0%
Marcus Murphy run for 3 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
78.8%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
78.0%
Christian Brinser punt for 34 yds, downed at the Kent 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14DOWNS
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:1122% → 21%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
78.3%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Demarco Robinson, broken up by Aarion PentonSimilar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+32
78.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for 32 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-6
76.9%
Stanley Williams run for a loss of 6 yards to the Misso 45Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 16
OPP 45
+8
78.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for 8 yds Stanley Williams fumbled, forced by Kentrell Brothers, recovered by Kent Javess BlueSimilar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
77.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Javess BlueSimilar
Q3 10:15
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
79.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Braylon Heard for no gain to the Misso 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:5481% → 80%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
81.0%
Russell Hansbrough run for no gain to the Misso 37Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-6
81.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 6 yards to the Misso 31 Russell Hansbrough fumbled, forced by Josh Forrest, recovered by Misso Maty MaukSimilar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 16
OWN 31
-6
80.4%
Maty Mauk sacked by Alvin Dupree for a loss of 6 yards to the Misso 25Similar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 22
OWN 25
+16
79.8%
Christian Brinser punt for 42 yds , Demarco Robinson returns for 16 yds to the Kent 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:3922% → 19%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
78.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 2 yds to the MISSOURI 49 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Personal Foul (Aarion Penton) to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
77.1%
Mikel Horton run for no gain to the Misso 34Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
77.4%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Stanley WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+2
78.9%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 8
OPP 32
-5
80.8%
Patrick Towles sacked by Shane Ray for a loss of 5 yards to the Misso 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:4383% → 89%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
82.7%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Sean Culkin for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
83.7%
Maty Mauk run for 3 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+4
84.2%
Marcus Murphy run for 4 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+12
84.1%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 12 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
84.9%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Jimmie Hunt, broken up by Nate WillisSimilar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
84.9%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Jason ReeseSimilar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+8
84.2%
Maty Mauk run for 8 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q3 3:42
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+41
89.4%
Andrew Baggett 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5213% → 11%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
87.2%
Mikel Horton run for 1 yd to the Kent 34Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
87.5%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Javess BlueSimilar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
88.5%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Mikel HortonSimilar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 9
OWN 34
+26
88.9%
Landon Foster punt for 46 yds , Marcus Murphy returns for 26 yds to the Misso 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0792% → 92%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
92.2%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 45Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
92.1%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Russell HansbroughSimilar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 11
OWN 45
-3
91.7%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 42Similar
Q3 1:08
4TH & 14
OWN 42
0
91.5%
Christian Brinser punt for 35 yds, downed at the Kent 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:0311% → 10%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
89.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for 7 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 3
OWN 30
0
88.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian Baker, broken up by Kenya DennisSimilar
Q3 0:49
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+10
88.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 10 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
88.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Ryan TimmonsSimilar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
88.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian Baker, broken up by Kenya DennisSimilar
Q3 0:25
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+7
88.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Braylon Heard for 7 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
89.6%
Landon Foster punt for 50 yds, downed at the Misso 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2593% → 92%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
92.6%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud Sasser, broken up by Nate WillisSimilar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+5
92.6%
Marcus Murphy run for 5 yds to the Misso 8Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 5
OWN 8
+2
92.5%
Marcus Murphy run for 2 yds to the Misso 10Similar
Q4 13:31
4TH & 3
OWN 10
0
92.2%
Christian Brinser punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Demarco Robinson at the Kent 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5310% → 9%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
89.8%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-1
90.0%
Jojo Kemp run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 42Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 11
OWN 42
0
90.8%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q4 12:30
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
91.3%
Landon Foster punt for 48 yds, downed at the Misso 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23FG
14 plays · 87 yds · 4:5994% → 97%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
93.6%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 8Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+11
93.6%
Maty Mauk run for 11 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+4
94.1%
Russell Hansbrough run for 4 yds to the Misso 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
94.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Nate Brown for 5 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
94.4%
Russell Hansbrough run for no gain to the Misso 28Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+11
94.9%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 11 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
95.3%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+15
95.3%
Mauk, Maty pass incomplete to Hunt, Jimmie (Randolph, Kendall), PENALTY KENTUCKY pass interference (Randolph, Kendall) 15 yards to the KENTUCKY46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSOURI. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
95.5%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Bud SasserSimilar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+39
95.5%
Maty Mauk run for 32 yds to the Kent 14 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Ashely Lowery) to the Kent 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
95.6%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Russell HansbroughSimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
95.7%
Russell Hansbrough run for 4 yds to the Kent 3Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
95.7%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q4 7:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
96.5%
Andrew Baggett 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 3:433% → 10%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
96.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 18Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+6
97.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 6 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+21
97.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 21 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+23
96.8%
Patrick Towles run for 8 yds to the MISSOURI 47 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Personal Foul (Markus Golden) to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
96.5%
Stanley Williams run for 9 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+2
97.0%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Misso 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
97.0%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+3
97.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Demarco Robinson for 3 yds to the Misso 16Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+1
97.3%
Mikel Horton run for 1 yd to the Misso 15Similar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+14
97.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 14 yds to the Misso 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.1%
Mikel Horton run for no gain to the Misso 1Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 24 yds · 1:228% → 7%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
91.6%
Towles, Patrick pass incomplete to Johnson, Garrett, PENALTY KENTUCKY holding (Toth, Jon) 10 yards to the KENTUCKY36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 20
OWN 36
0
93.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Braylon HeardSimilar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 20
OWN 36
0
94.2%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Demarco RobinsonSimilar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 20
OWN 36
0
94.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Javess BlueSimilar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 20
OPP 36
+34
94.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 19 yds to the MISSOURI 45 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Personal Foul (Braylon Webb) to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
92.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 9 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 1
OPP 21
0
91.8%
Patrick Towles run for no gain to the Misso 21Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
92.5%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Blake BoneSimilar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 1
OPP 21
-2
93.2%
Patrick Towles run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:2295% → 96%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
94.7%
Marcus Murphy run for 3 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+1
96.0%
Maty Mauk run for 1 yd to the Misso 27Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
96.0%
Maty Mauk run for no gain to the Misso 27Similar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 6
OWN 27
+8
96.1%
Christian Brinser punt for 32 yds , Demarco Robinson returns for 8 yds to the Kent 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:434% → 3%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
96.3%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Delay of Game (Patrick Towles) to the Kent 44Similar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+8
96.9%
Patrick Towles run for 8 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-8
96.4%
Patrick Towles sacked by Markus Golden for a loss of 8 yards to the MISSOURI 44 KENTUCKY Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Patrick Towles) to the Kent 44Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 15
OWN 44
+7
97.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 7 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 8
OPP 49
-11
96.8%
Patrick Towles sacked by Shane Ray for a loss of 11 yards to the Kent 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:26
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 26 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)
+7.6
TD · Q4 3:26
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
-7.3
FG · Q3 3:42
Andrew Baggett 41 yd FG GOOD
+5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com