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MSST

Mississippi State 45 at Kentucky 31

UK
2014 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2014 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:13 · Landon Foster punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jamoral Graham at the MisSt 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 7Pregame prior−30.3Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:33: Patrick Towles run for 10 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +11.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:44: Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Hill for 8 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +10.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:32: Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 58 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +14.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:47: Josh Robinson run for 73 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +12.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:31: Patrick Towles run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +22.4 pts (now 27%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:13UK 4th & 9 at UK 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:09MSST 4th & 13 at MSST 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:41MSST 4th & 8 at UK 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    71.4%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:48UK 4th & 17 at UK 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:18UK 4th & 10 at MSST 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    18.5%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:00MSST 4th & 10 at UK 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    71.9%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:26UK 4th & 12 at UK 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:15MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:49UK 4th & 10 at UK 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−2.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:55MSST 4th & 10 at UK 35, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.5%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    77.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    76.8%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:51UK 4th & 8 at UK 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:24UK 4th & 12 at UK 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:45MSST 4th & 6 at UK 44, up 14
    Close callPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    93.8%−1.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:26UK 4th & 4 at MSST 19, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%−1.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    7.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−3.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:56MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 29, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:22UK 4th & 18 at UK 17, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:38MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:25UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:20MSST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:54MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:33UK Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:44MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:32UK Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:47MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:31UK Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.2%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:3919% → 20%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
19.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Demarco Robinson for 5 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
19.5%
Patrick Towles run for 8 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
19.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson, broken up by Jamerson LoveSimilar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
19.8%
Braylon Heard run for 1 yd to the Kent 39Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
20.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
20.0%
Landon Foster punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jamoral Graham at the MisSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 4:2280% → 80%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
20.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 6 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+7
20.3%
Josh Robinson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
20.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 11 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
20.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 15 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
20.7%
Josh Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+12
20.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 12 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
21.0%
Dak Prescott sacked by Alvin Dupree for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 33Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+12
21.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 12 yds to the Kent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
21.4%
Josh Robinson run for 5 yds to the Kent 16Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+4
21.5%
Dak Prescott run for 4 yds to the Kent 12 Dak Prescott fumbled, forced by Melvin Lewis, recovered by MisSt Dak PrescottSimilar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+12
20.2%
Josh Robinson run for 12 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 1:5521% → 24%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
20.8%
Patrick Towles run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 20Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+4
20.9%
Braylon Heard run for 4 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+8
20.8%
Patrick Towles run for 8 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
21.2%
Braylon Heard run for 1 yd to the Kent 33Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+67
23.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Demarco Robinson for 67 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0177% → 75%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
23.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-3
23.9%
Josh Robinson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 21Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 13
OWN 21
0
24.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Joe Morrow, broken up by Blake McClainSimilar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 13
OWN 21
-14
24.7%
Devon Bell punt for 53 yds , Demarco Robinson returns for a loss of 14 yards to the Kent 12 Demarco Robinson fumbled, recovered by KentSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0724% → 24%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
24.2%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Joey HerrickSimilar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+7
24.2%
Braylon Heard run for 7 yds to the Kent 19 Braylon Heard fumbled, forced by Matthew Wells, recovered by MisSt Benardrick McKinneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6FG
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:0377% → 76%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
23.2%
Josh Robinson run for 2 yds to the Kent 17Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+10
23.4%
Dak Prescott run for 10 yds to the Kent 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
23.5%
Dak Prescott run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 10Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
23.8%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the Kent 8Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
24.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Robert Johnson MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (NA) declinedSimilar
Q1 2:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
24.4%
Evan Sobiesk 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 2:1225% → 25%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
24.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Blake Bone for 9 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 1
OWN 23
0
24.9%
Mikel Horton run for no gain to the Kent 23 Mikel Horton fumbled, forced by Preston Smith, recovered by Kent Mikel HortonSimilar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+2
24.5%
Jojo Kemp run for 2 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.9%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Blake BoneSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
24.9%
Jojo Kemp run for 2 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-9
24.7%
Patrick Towles sacked by Kaleb Eulls for a loss of 9 yards to the Kent 18Similar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
24.7%
Landon Foster punt for 50 yds, downed at the MisSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 4:1075% → 79%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
25.0%
Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+14
25.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 14 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
24.7%
Nick Griffin run for 11 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
24.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 3 yds to the Kent 38Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+8
24.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Robert Johnson for 8 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
24.8%
Gabe Myles run for 7 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+12
24.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 12 yds to the Kent 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
24.9%
Ashton Shumpert run for 5 yds to the Kent 6Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+4
25.1%
Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the Kent 2Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
21.4%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 3:4221% → 24%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
21.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 15 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
21.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Joey Herrick for 4 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+7
22.0%
Patrick Towles run for 7 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
22.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ronnie Shields for 11 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
22.3%
Jojo Kemp run for 10 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
22.9%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Demarco Robinson, broken up by Jamerson LoveSimilar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
22.9%
Patrick Towles run for 3 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+8
22.2%
Patrick Towles run for 8 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
23.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Blake Bone, broken up by Tolando ClevelandSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
23.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Blake BoneSimilar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
22.2%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Javess BlueSimilar
Q2 6:18
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+34
23.8%
Austin MacGinnis 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10MISSED FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 2:0577% → 77%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
23.0%
Josh Robinson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+10
22.2%
Josh Robinson run for 10 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
22.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+38
22.5%
Dak Prescott run for 38 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
21.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred Brown, broken up by Blake McClainSimilar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
22.0%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
22.4%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the Kent 25Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
23.5%
Logan Cooke 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0425% → 24%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.7%
Patrick Towles run for no gain to the Kent 25Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
24.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Demarco RobinsonSimilar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-2
24.0%
Patrick Towles sacked by Preston Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 23Similar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+2
23.5%
Landon Foster punt for 41 yds , Jamoral Graham returns for 2 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:3578% → 78%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-9
22.0%
Dak Prescott sacked by Za'Darius Smith for a loss of 9 yards to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 19
OWN 29
+18
23.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 18 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+1
21.7%
Josh Robinson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
21.7%
Dak Prescott pass intercepted Josh Forrest return for 3 yds to the Kent 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:2926% → 27%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
25.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Braylon Heard for 8 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+2
25.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Braylon Heard for 2 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-8
25.1%
Patrick Towles sacked by Ryan Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 35Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 18
OWN 35
+11
22.8%
Patrick Towles run for 11 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+21
24.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 21 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+50
27.2%
Austin MacGinnis 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 2:5977% → 87%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.6%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Robert JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
23.0%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya Wilson, broken up by Fred TillerSimilar
Q3 14:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
23.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 13 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
21.5%
Josh Robinson run for 11 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
21.1%
Josh Robinson run for 11 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
20.9%
Josh Robinson run for 12 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
20.6%
Nick Griffin run for 4 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
20.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+5
21.2%
Prescott, Dak pass incomplete to Brown, Fred, PENALTY KENTUCKY offside (Lowery, Ashely) 5 yards to the KENTUCKY19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+3
21.1%
Josh Robinson run for 3 yds to the Kent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
20.6%
Gabe Myles run for 5 yds to the Kent 11Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+11
12.9%
Dak Prescott run for 11 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 3:0515% → 28%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+48
14.9%
Patrick Towles run for 48 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
16.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 11 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
17.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 10 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
17.1%
Patrick Towles run for no gain to the MisSt 17Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+12
16.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 12 yds to the MisSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
16.7%
Braylon Heard run for no gain to the MisSt 5Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
16.7%
Patrick Towles sacked by Beniquez Brown and Ryan Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 10Similar
Q3 8:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
28.0%
Patrick Towles run for 10 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:0677% → 76%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
23.5%
Josh Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 24Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
23.3%
Dak Prescott run for 5 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
23.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Justin Senior) to the MisSt 24Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-4
24.2%
Dak Prescott run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 25 Dak Prescott fumbled, forced by Cory Johnson, recovered by MisSt Dak PrescottSimilar
Q3 6:27
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
25.0%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Substitution Infraction (NA) to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
24.5%
Devon Bell punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17FUMBLE
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2125% → 23%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
25.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete, broken up by Chris JonesSimilar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
25.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Blake Bone, broken up by Deontay EvansSimilar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
24.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Ronnie ShieldsSimilar
Q3 5:49
4TH & 10
OWN 22
+58
23.3%
Landon Foster punt for 58 yds , Jamoral Graham returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 19 Jamoral Graham fumbled, recovered by MisSt Jamoral GrahamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18TD
4 plays · 81 yds · 0:4677% → 90%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+22
23.1%
Josh Robinson run for 22 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+36
20.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Robert Johnson for 36 yds to the Kent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
19.8%
Prescott, Dak pass incomplete to Wilson, De'Runnya, PENALTY KENTUCKY pass interference (Willis, Nate) 15 yards to the KENTUCKY8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
9.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Hill for 8 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5812% → 28%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
12.3%
Patrick Towles run for 5 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
12.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 9 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
13.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Demarco Robinson for 3 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+58
27.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 58 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:2078% → 78%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.1%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
22.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 9 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
21.1%
Josh Robinson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
20.2%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
20.6%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
20.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 19 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
19.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
19.6%
Josh Robinson run for 3 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 32
-3
19.7%
Dak Prescott sacked by Kendall Randolph for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 35Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
21.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Nick GriffinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3924% → 22%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
24.4%
Patrick Towles run for no gain to the Kent 35Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-6
23.8%
Patrick Towles sacked by Kaleb Eulls for a loss of 6 yards to the Kent 29Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+8
21.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Braylon Heard for 8 yds to the Kent 37Similar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+2
21.8%
Landon Foster punt for 47 yds , Jamoral Graham returns for 2 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 0:4380% → 93%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
20.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 9 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 1
OWN 27
0
19.4%
Josh Robinson run for no gain to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+73
7.4%
Josh Robinson run for 73 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:1511% → 8%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
10.5%
Patrick Towles run for 5 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
11.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Demarco Robinson for 11 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
11.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 5 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
11.9%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete, broken up by Preston SmithSimilar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-7
11.6%
Patrick Towles sacked by Preston Smith and Zach Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 39Similar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
8.2%
Landon Foster punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jamoral Graham at the MisSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:1594% → 95%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
6.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 2 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+1
5.8%
Josh Robinson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 16Similar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+23
6.2%
Dak Prescott run for 23 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
5.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 9 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+4
5.1%
Nick Griffin run for 4 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
5.0%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Joe MorrowSimilar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
4.7%
Dak Prescott run for 4 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
4.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya Wilson, broken up by Fred TillerSimilar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
4.9%
Devon Bell punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:086% → 6%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+55
5.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 55 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
7.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson, broken up by Tolando ClevelandSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
6.7%
Patrick Towles run for 6 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
6.7%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Ryan TimmonsSimilar
Q4 5:26
4TH & 4
OPP 19
0
6.4%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Ryan Timmons, broken up by Kivon ComanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5496% → 97%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
4.4%
Josh Robinson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
4.1%
Josh Robinson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
4.2%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 3:56
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+9
3.2%
Devon Bell punt for 51 yds , Demarco Robinson returns for 9 yds to the Kent 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 27TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 1:143% → 18%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
3.2%
Garrett Johnson pass complete to Patrick Towles for 11 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
3.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 7 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+11
3.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Blake Bone for 11 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+23
3.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 23 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
3.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Blake Bone for 15 yds to the MisSt 4 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jamerson Love) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
4.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian Baker, broken up by Will RedmondSimilar
Q4 2:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
26.5%
Patrick Towles run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
18.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Matthew Wells) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 28DOWNS
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:553% → 2%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.9%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Braylon HeardSimilar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
2.8%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Demarco RobinsonSimilar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-8
2.4%
Patrick Towles sacked by Matthew Wells for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 17 Patrick Towles fumbled, forced by Matthew Wells, recovered by Kent Patrick Towles , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+10
2.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Braylon Heard for 10 yds to the Kent 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · 2 yds · 1:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
1.8%
Josh Robinson run for 4 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-2
1.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
1.8%
TEAM run for no gain to the Kent 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:31
Patrick Towles run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
+22.4
TD · Q3 3:32
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 58 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
+14.5
TD · Q4 11:47
Josh Robinson run for 73 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)
-12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com