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UGA

Georgia 63 at Kentucky 31

UK
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreUGA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:09 · Isaiah McKenzie 59 Yd Punt Return (Marshall Morgan Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Home team on offense−34.8Pregame prior−15.9Score differential−31.4Garbage-time factor−11.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:34: Malcolm Mitchell 23 Yd pass from Hutson Mason (Marshall Morgan Kick) — UGA win probability +7.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:55: Stanley Williams 56 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick) — UK win probability +5.0 pts (now 20%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:04: Chris Conley 4 Yd pass from Hutson Mason (Marshall Morgan Kick) — UGA win probability +9.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:16: Patrick Towles 1 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick) — UK win probability +6.1 pts (now 21%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:56: Jeb Blazevich 10 Yd pass from Hutson Mason (Marshall Morgan Kick) — UGA win probability +9.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:58UK 4th & 1 at UK 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:48UK 4th & 10 at UK 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:00UK 4th & 1 at UGA 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.9%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:50UK 4th & 1 at UGA 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    19.1%−0.9
    84% to make
    Punt
    16.1%−3.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:46UK 4th & 18 at UGA 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−1.1
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    16.2%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:09UK 4th & 10 at UK 15, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:18UK 4th & 15 at UGA 44, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:37UK 4th & 4 at UK 41, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:40UK 4th & 5 at UGA 36, down 39
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UGA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 8:29UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:57UGA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:33UK Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:34UGA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:55UK Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:04UGA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:16UK Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 12:56UGA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:55UGA Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:49UGA Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:22UK Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3219% → 19%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
18.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Braylon Heard for 5 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+3
18.9%
Braylon Heard run for 3 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+1
19.1%
Braylon Heard run for 1 yd to the Kent 33Similar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
19.1%
Landon Foster punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Reggie Davis at the Geo 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 4:0181% → 82%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
19.3%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 30Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+8
19.4%
Hutson Mason run for 8 yds to the Geo 38Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+5
19.4%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Michael Bennett for 5 yds to the Geo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
19.4%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Jeb Blazevich for 11 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
19.4%
Nick Chubb run for 7 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+2
19.5%
Sony Michel run for 2 yds to the Kent 37Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+6
19.6%
Sony Michel run for 6 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
19.7%
Sony Michel run for 7 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+9
19.6%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 9 yds to the Kent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
18.1%
Chris Conley 15 Yd pass from Hutson Mason (Marshall Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4KICKOFF
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:3319% → 19%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
18.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Demarco Robinson for 16 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
19.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
19.1%
Braylon Heard run for 1 yd to the Kent 46Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-1
19.1%
Patrick Towles sacked by Lorenzo Carter for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 45Similar
Q1 6:48
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
19.0%
Landon Foster punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Isaiah McKenzie at the Geo 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5TD
6 plays · 91 yds · 1:4782% → 85%
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
18.3%
Hutson Mason pass incomplete to Malcolm MitchellSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+5
18.3%
Nick Chubb run for 5 yds to the Geo 14Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+10
18.4%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Jonathon Rumph for 10 yds to the Geo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+39
18.2%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Chris Conley for 39 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+19
17.9%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Jonathon Rumph for 19 yds to the Kent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
14.8%
Nick Chubb 18 Yd Run (Marshall Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6TD
17 plays · 74 yds · 5:5715% → 19%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
15.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Demarco Robinson for 8 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+1
15.2%
Braylon Heard run for 1 yd to the Kent 35Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+8
15.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Demarco Robinson for 8 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-6
15.2%
Patrick Towles sacked by Lorenzo Carter for a loss of 6 yards to the Kent 37Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 16
OWN 37
+15
14.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 15 yds to the Geo 48Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
15.0%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:00
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+5
14.9%
Braylon Heard run for 5 yds to the Geo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
14.9%
Braylon Heard run for 7 yds to the Geo 36Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+2
14.9%
Braylon Heard run for 2 yds to the Geo 34Similar
Q1 1:02
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+1
14.8%
Patrick Towles run for 1 yd to the Geo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
14.8%
Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the Geo 29Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
14.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete, broken up by Mike ThorntonSimilar
Q1 0:04
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+17
14.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 17 yds to the Geo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
14.4%
Patrick Towles run for 5 yds to the Geo 7Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+4
14.3%
Patrick Towles run for 4 yds to the Geo 3Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
19.2%
Braylon Heard 3 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7FG
11 plays · 2 yds · 3:3420% → 20%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
19.5%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
19.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 3 yds to the Geo 20Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+5
19.2%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Leonard Floyd) to the Geo 15Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+1
19.1%
Braylon Heard run for 1 yd to the Geo 14Similar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+1
18.5%
Patrick Towles run for 1 yd to the Geo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
18.9%
Heard, Braylon rush for loss of 1 yard to the GEORGIA14, PENALTY KENTUCKY holding (Shields, Ronnie) 10 yards to the GEORGIA23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 20
OPP 23
-4
18.9%
Ryan Timmons run for a loss of 4 yards to the Geo 27Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 24
OPP 27
+6
18.8%
Patrick Towles run for 6 yds to the Geo 21Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 18
OPP 21
0
18.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Javess BlueSimilar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 18
OPP 21
+38
20.0%
Austin MacGinnis 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:5680% → 88%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
20.0%
Isaiah McKenzie run for 9 yds to the Geo 41 Isaiah McKenzie fumbled, forced by Khalid Henderson, recovered by Geo Isaiah McKenzie for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
19.3%
Sony Michel run for 5 yds to the Geo 46Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+5
19.4%
Sony Michel run for 5 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
19.3%
Sony Michel run for 3 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+28
19.0%
Nick Chubb run for 28 yds to the Kent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
18.9%
Chubb, Nick rush for loss of 2 yards to the KENTUCKY20, PENALTY GEORGIA holding (Hicks, Quayvon) 10 yards to the KENTUCKY28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 20
OPP 28
+5
19.0%
Sony Michel run for 5 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+23
11.7%
Malcolm Mitchell 23 Yd pass from Hutson Mason (Marshall Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:2514% → 20%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
14.3%
Stanley Williams run for 19 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
15.2%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+56
20.2%
Stanley Williams 56 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 1:2680% → 89%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
19.8%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Michael Bennett for 6 yds to the Geo 32Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+5
19.5%
Nick Chubb run for 5 yds to the Geo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+55
19.5%
Nick Chubb run for 55 yds to the Kent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
18.8%
Sony Michel run for 4 yds to the Kent 4Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
18.8%
Hutson Mason pass incomplete to Chris Conley, broken up by Cody QuinnSimilar
Q2 4:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
10.6%
Chris Conley 4 Yd pass from Hutson Mason (Marshall Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 3:3414% → 21%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
13.8%
Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
13.6%
Patrick Towles run for 7 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
13.7%
Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
13.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for 1 yd to the Kent 41Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+3
13.5%
Towles, Patrick pass incomplete to Robinson, Demarco, PENALTY GEORGIA pass interference (Davis, Aaron) 3 yards to the KENTUCKY44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
13.7%
Braylon Heard run for 5 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+5
13.8%
Patrick Towles run for 5 yds to the Geo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
14.0%
Towles, Patrick pass incomplete, PENALTY GEORGIA personal foul (Carter, Lorenzo) 15 yards to the GEORGIA31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
14.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Demarco Robinson for 4 yds to the Geo 27Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
14.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Javess BlueSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+11
14.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Braylon Heard for 11 yds to the Geo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+13
14.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 13 yds to the Geo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
14.4%
Braylon Heard run for 2 yds to the Geo 1Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.2%
Patrick Towles 1 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
17.7%
TEAM run for no gain to the Geo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.1%
Patrick Towles pass intercepted Corey Moore return for no gain to the Kent 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:4482% → 91%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
18.2%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+10
18.1%
Nick Chubb run for 10 yds to the Kent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
18.0%
Nick Chubb run for 11 yds to the Kent 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
17.8%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the Kent 10Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
8.8%
Jeb Blazevich 10 Yd pass from Hutson Mason (Marshall Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2111% → 2%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
10.7%
Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the Kent 19Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 6
OWN 19
-4
10.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 15Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
10.4%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:09
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+59
2.0%
Isaiah McKenzie 59 Yd Punt Return (Marshall Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:122% → 1%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
2.0%
Patrick Towles run for 2 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+14
1.9%
Patrick Towles run for 14 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
1.9%
Braylon Heard run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 6
50
+11
1.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Dorian Baker for 11 yds to the Geo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
1.8%
Patrick Towles sacked by Dominick Sanders and Lorenzo Carter for a loss of 5 yards to the Geo 44Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 15
OPP 44
-5
1.5%
KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (Jordan Swindle) to the Geo 49Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 20
OPP 49
+5
1.4%
Patrick Towles run for 5 yds to the Geo 44 Patrick Towles fumbled, recovered by Kent Cole MosierSimilar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 15
OPP 44
0
1.4%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete, broken up by Damian SwannSimilar
Q3 7:18
4TH & 15
OPP 44
0
1.3%
Landon Foster punt for 39 yds, downed at the Geo 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17TD
12 plays · 95 yds · 5:0598% → 99%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
1.8%
Sony Michel run for 5 yds to the Geo 10Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+3
1.7%
Sony Michel run for 3 yds to the Geo 13Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 2
OWN 13
+2
1.4%
Sony Michel run for 2 yds to the Geo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
1.4%
Sony Michel run for no gain to the Geo 15Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+5
1.3%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 5 yds to the Geo 20Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+18
1.3%
Hutson Mason pass complete to Malcolm Mitchell for 18 yds to the Geo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
1.0%
Nick Chubb run for 5 yds to the Geo 43Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+23
1.0%
Nick Chubb run for 23 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
0.9%
Hutson Mason pass incomplete to Malcolm Mitchell, broken up by Nate WillisSimilar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
0.9%
Sony Michel run for no gain to the Kent 34Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+11
0.9%
Sony Michel run for 11 yds to the Kent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
0.6%
Sony Michel 23 Yd Run (Marshall Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:112% → 0%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
1.5%
Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct Off-Setting to the Kent 20Similar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
1.5%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Stanley WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
1.4%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Kent 20Similar
Q3 0:49
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+15
0.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Joey Herrick for 15 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
0.5%
Braylon Heard run for 1 yd to the Kent 36Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
0.5%
Patrick Towles run for 5 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
0.4%
Patrick Towles run for no gain to the Kent 41Similar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
0.4%
Landon Foster punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Reggie Davis at the Geo 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 3:31100% → 100%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
0.5%
Sony Michel run for 3 yds to the Geo 18Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+7
0.5%
Brice Ramsey pass complete to Reggie Davis for 7 yds to the Geo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.5%
Brendan Douglas run for 3 yds to the Geo 28Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+47
0.4%
Brice Ramsey pass complete to Jonathon Rumph for 47 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
0.3%
Brice Ramsey pass complete to Jonathon Rumph for 5 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+10
0.3%
Brendan Douglas run for 10 yds to the Kent 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
0.3%
Brendan Douglas run for 2 yds to the Kent 8Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
0.2%
Jeb Blazevich 8 Yd pass from Brice Ramsey (Marshall Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20TD
16 plays · 63 yds · 6:080% → 0%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
0.2%
Mikel Horton run for 6 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+5
0.2%
Mikel Horton run for 5 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
0.2%
Mikel Horton run for 5 yds to the Geo 47Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+2
0.2%
Mikel Horton run for 2 yds to the Geo 45Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+4
0.2%
Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the Geo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
0.2%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Blake Bone, broken up by Tramel TerrySimilar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
0.2%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Geo 38Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+2
0.2%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Geo 36Similar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+7
0.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Demarco Robinson for 7 yds to the Geo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
0.2%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+6
0.2%
Mikel Horton run for 6 yds to the Geo 23Similar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+16
0.1%
Patrick Towles run for 16 yds to the Geo 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
0.2%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q4 3:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
0.2%
Mikel Horton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 9Similar
Q4 3:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
0.2%
Javess Blue 9 Yd pass from Patrick Towles (Austin MacGinnis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21END OF GAME
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:50100% → 100%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
0.1%
Brendan Douglas run for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 41Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+3
0.1%
Brendan Douglas run for 3 yds to the Geo 44Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+13
0.1%
Brice Ramsey pass complete to Blake Tibbs for 13 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
0.1%
Brendan Douglas run for 1 yd to the Kent 42Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+15
0.1%
Brendan Douglas run for 15 yds to the Kent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:04
Chris Conley 4 Yd pass from Hutson Mason (Marshall Morgan Kick)
-9
TD · Q3 12:56
Jeb Blazevich 10 Yd pass from Hutson Mason (Marshall Morgan Kick)
-9
TD · Q2 6:34
Malcolm Mitchell 23 Yd pass from Hutson Mason (Marshall Morgan Kick)
-7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com