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UK

Kentucky 16 at Tennessee 50

TENN
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2014 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:30 · Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the Kent 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:21: Von Pearson 16 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Aaron Medley PAT failed) — TENN win probability +7.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 8:31: Aaron Medley 38 Yd Field Goal — TENN win probability +3.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:27: Patrick Towles 2 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick) — UK win probability +9.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:44: Jason Croom 52 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Aaron Medley Kick) — TENN win probability +5.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 11:40: Austin MacGinnis 30 Yd Field Goal — UK win probability +4.6 pts (now 6%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 3 of 9UK made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 10:38UK 4th & 10 at TENN 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:04UK 4th & 4 at UK 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:14TENN 4th & 8 at UK 43, up 4
    Close callPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    67.8%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:21UK 4th & 9 at UK 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:40TENN 4th & 1 at UK 33, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.8%−1.5
    49% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:42TENN 4th & 1 at UK 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.5%−1.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:18UK 4th & 7 at UK 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:46UK 4th & 20 at UK 15, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−2.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:14TENN 4th & 1 at UK 4, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%
    65% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.7%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    88.7%−4.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:40UK 4th & 5 at TENN 13, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    -1.6%−3.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:40TENN 4th & 5 at UK 30, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.3%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    94.7%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:21UK 4th & 10 at UK 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:17TENN 4th & 1 at UK 22, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.7%−0.6
    72% to make
    Punt
    94.8%−2.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:58UK 4th & 19 at UK 25, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:25TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 45, up 34
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:30UK 4th & 10 at UK 10, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:44TENN 4th & 4 at UK 40, up 34
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:05UK 4th & 6 at UK 24, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:00TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 46, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:11TENN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:07TENN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:21TENN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:09TENN Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:27UK Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:44TENN Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:20TENN Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1FG
14 plays · 77 yds · 3:4829% → 30%
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
71.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 2 yds to the Kent 10Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+9
71.1%
Patrick Towles run for 9 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+21
71.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 21 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
71.0%
Braylon Heard run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 38Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+15
70.9%
Towles, Patrick pass incomplete, PENALTY TENNESSEE face mask 15 yards to the TENNESSEE47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
70.7%
Patrick Towles run for 15 yds to the Tenn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
70.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Demarco RobinsonSimilar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
70.6%
Patrick Towles run for 1 yd to the Tenn 31Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+16
70.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 16 yds to the Tenn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
70.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Demarco Robinson for 4 yds to the Tenn 11Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+2
70.2%
Braylon Heard run for 2 yds to the Tenn 9Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 4
OPP 9
-6
70.1%
Patrick Towles sacked by Curt Maggitt for a loss of 6 yards to the Tenn 15Similar
Q1 10:38
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
70.1%
Austin MacGinnis 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 1:1970% → 72%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
70.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Daniel Helm for 10 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
70.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+12
70.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 12 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+28
70.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Marlin Lane for 28 yds to the Kent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
71.5%
Von Pearson 21 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Aaron Medley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:0729% → 29%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
71.0%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Kent 20Similar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
71.0%
Braylon Heard run for 3 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
71.0%
Reese Phillips pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
71.2%
KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 18Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+13
71.2%
Reese Phillips run for 13 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
71.3%
Landon Foster punt for 33 yds, downed at the Tenn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:4671% → 71%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
70.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 8 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+11
71.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for 11 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
71.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
71.4%
Pig Howard run for 2 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
71.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Marquez NorthSimilar
Q1 6:14
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
70.6%
Matt Darr punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Demarco Robinson at the Kent 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5INT TD
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:0229% → 27%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
70.9%
Reese Phillips pass incomplete to Blake BoneSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+10
71.0%
Braylon Heard run for 10 yds to the Kent 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
70.8%
Reese Phillips run for 4 yds to the Kent 21Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+23
73.0%
Reese Phillips pass intercepted for a TD Brian Randolph return for 23 yds for a TD (Aaron Medley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3927% → 26%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
72.9%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-2
73.0%
Stanley Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 30Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
74.2%
Reese Phillips pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
74.5%
Landon Foster punt for 36 yds, downed at the Tenn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7TD
14 plays · 66 yds · 4:5474% → 83%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
74.1%
Joshua Dobbs run for no gain to the Tenn 34Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
74.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+19
74.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Pig Howard for 19 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
74.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
74.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Von PearsonSimilar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+6
74.6%
Joshua Dobbs run for 6 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q1 0:40
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+1
74.2%
Joshua Dobbs run for 1 yd to the Kent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
75.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Pig HowardSimilar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
75.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 9 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 1
OPP 23
0
75.1%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Kent 23Similar
Q2 14:42
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+2
74.7%
Joshua Dobbs run for 2 yds to the Kent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
75.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the Kent 14Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 3
OPP 14
-2
75.7%
Pig Howard run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 16Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+16
82.7%
Von Pearson 16 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Aaron Medley PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5719% → 18%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.4%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.6%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
81.9%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Javess BlueSimilar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
82.1%
Landon Foster punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 3:2984% → 88%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
83.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
84.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Pig HowardSimilar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+7
83.7%
Joshua Dobbs run for 7 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
84.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Von Pearson for 7 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+6
84.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+25
84.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 25 yds to the Kent 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
85.0%
Marlin Lane run for no gain to the Kent 10Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
85.2%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 11Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-10
84.8%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Alvin Dupree for a loss of 10 yards to the Kent 21Similar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 0
OPP 21
+38
88.3%
Aaron Medley 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 1:2910% → 10%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.6%
Patrick Towles run for no gain to the Kent 25Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
89.3%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Javess BlueSimilar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
89.5%
Patrick Towles sacked by Derek Barnett for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 20Similar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 15
OWN 20
-5
89.7%
KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 15Similar
Q2 6:46
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
89.9%
Landon Foster punt for 35 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:2193% → 96%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
50
+7
92.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 7 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+3
93.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jason Croom for 3 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
93.8%
Joshua Dobbs run for 13 yds to the Kent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
93.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 10 yds to the Kent 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
94.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Pig Howard for 7 yds to the Kent 10Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+1
92.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Kent 9Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+9
96.3%
Joshua Dobbs 9 Yd Run (Aaron Medley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 2:281% → 11%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
98.6%
Stanley Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 20Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 14
OWN 20
-5
98.5%
KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 15Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 19
OWN 15
+39
98.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 39 yds to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
98.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Braylon Heard for 1 yd to the Tenn 45Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+30
98.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 30 yds to the Tenn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
98.6%
Patrick Towles run for 3 yds to the Tenn 12Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
98.5%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Demarco RobinsonSimilar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+10
98.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 10 yds to the Tenn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.2%
Patrick Towles 2 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13FG
10 plays · 66 yds · 1:0594% → 94%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
93.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 14 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
93.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Pig Howard for 11 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+32
94.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jason Croom for 32 yds to the Kent 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
93.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alex Ellis for 9 yds to the Kent 4Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 1
OPP 4
0
93.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 1
OPP 4
0
93.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jason CroomSimilar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+21
93.5%
Aaron Medley 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:048% → 9%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
91.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 23 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+54
91.0%
Austin MacGinnis 54 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15TD
2 plays · 52 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
98.4%
Jason Croom 52 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Aaron Medley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 2:404% → 6%
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
96.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 3 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
95.8%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Stanley WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+13
95.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 13 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
95.7%
Braylon Heard run for 3 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+27
96.4%
Patrick Towles run for 12 yds to the TENNESSEE 47 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Tenn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
96.2%
Patrick Towles run for 14 yds to the Tenn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
98.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 4 yds to the Tenn 14Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+1
98.4%
Braylon Heard run for 1 yd to the Tenn 13Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 5
OPP 13
0
98.5%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Demarco RobinsonSimilar
Q3 11:40
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+30
93.9%
Austin MacGinnis 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17MISSED FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 3:4395% → 96%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
95.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+2
95.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 2 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+6
95.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Pig Howard for 6 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
95.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 9 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+3
95.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
96.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 14 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
96.3%
Marlin Lane run for 2 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
96.1%
Joshua Dobbs fumbled, recovered by Joshua Dobbs, Marlin Lane run for 3 yds to Kent 30Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
96.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jason CroomSimilar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+48
95.9%
Aaron Medley 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:044% → 4%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
95.8%
Jojo Kemp run for 4 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
95.8%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Demarco RobinsonSimilar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-4
96.2%
Patrick Towles sacked by Curt Maggitt for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 31Similar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
96.4%
Landon Foster punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:5597% → 100%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
96.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alex Ellis for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
50
-8
97.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the TENNESSEE 48 TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Tenn 42Similar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 18
OWN 42
+3
97.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+24
97.2%
Joshua Dobbs run for 9 yds to the TENNESSEE 46 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Kent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
97.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+3
97.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+2
97.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Kent 22Similar
Q3 3:17
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+39
99.6%
Aaron Medley 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20INT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:170% → 0%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 2 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.7%
Patrick Towles run for no gain to the Kent 24 Patrick Towles fumbled, recovered by Kent Patrick TowlesSimilar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+25
99.8%
Patrick Towles pass intercepted Justin Coleman return for 25 yds to the Kent 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21TD
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
99.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
99.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Kent 15Similar
Q3 0:59
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+11
99.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 11 yds to the Kent 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.7%
Jalen Hurd 4 Yd Run (Aaron Medley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
99.8%
Patrick Towles sacked by Derek Barnett and A.J. Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Kent 28Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 16
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Javess BlueSimilar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 16
OWN 28
-3
99.8%
Patrick Towles sacked by Chris Weatherd for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 13:58
4TH & 19
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Landon Foster punt for 51 yds , Jacob Carter returns for 2 yds to the Tenn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
99.8%
Justus Pickett run for 10 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.8%
Justus Pickett run for 5 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
99.8%
Justus Pickett run for 4 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
99.8%
Justus Pickett run for no gain to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 11:25
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
99.8%
Matt Darr punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Demarco Robinson at the Kent 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:300% → 0%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
99.9%
Mikel Horton run for no gain to the Kent 10Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
99.9%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Demarco RobinsonSimilar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
99.9%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Braylon HeardSimilar
Q4 10:30
4TH & 10
OWN 10
+11
99.9%
Landon Foster punt for 47 yds , Jacob Carter returns for 11 yds to the Kent 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:38100% → 100%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
99.9%
Justus Pickett run for 2 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+4
99.9%
Justus Pickett run for 4 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Matt Darr punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:250% → 0%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
99.9%
Jojo Kemp run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 18Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
99.9%
Jojo Kemp run for no gain to the Kent 18Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+6
99.9%
Jojo Kemp run for 6 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q4 6:05
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+5
99.9%
Landon Foster punt for 52 yds , Jacob Carter returns for 5 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 4:33100% → 100%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
99.9%
Deanthonie Summerhill run for 6 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+2
99.9%
Deanthonie Summerhill run for 2 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.9%
Deanthonie Summerhill run for 5 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+2
99.9%
Deanthonie Summerhill run for 2 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+2
99.9%
Deanthonie Summerhill run for 2 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+1
99.9%
Deanthonie Summerhill run for 1 yd to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
100.0%
Matt Darr punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:250% → 0%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
100.0%
Mikel Horton run for 18 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
100.0%
Jojo Kemp run for 4 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+1
100.0%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the Kent 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:27
Patrick Towles 2 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)
-9
TD · Q2 13:21
Von Pearson 16 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Aaron Medley PAT failed)
+7
TD · Q3 14:44
Jason Croom 52 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Aaron Medley Kick)
+5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com