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UK

Kentucky 40 at Louisville 44

LOU
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:07 · Landon Foster punt for 60 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Pregame prior+10.2Home team on offense+9.4Garbage-time factor+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.8Score differential+3.1Blowout margin+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:30: Fred Tiller 40 Yd Interception Return (Austin MacGinnis Kick) — UK win probability +13.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 9:32: Mike Douglas 30 Yd Fumble Return (Austin MacGinnis Kick) — UK win probability +28.3 pts (now 58%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:58: Kyle Bolin pass complete to DeVante Parker for 45 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bolin intercepted ) — LOU win probability +31.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:31: Stanley Williams run for 14 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +37.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:47: Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +41.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UK made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 12:59LOU 4th & 14 at LOU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:31UK 4th & 6 at UK 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:52UK 4th & 2 at LOU 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.0%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    19.1%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:25LOU 4th & 15 at LOU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:28UK 4th & 1 at LOU 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    21.9%−0.7
    49% to make
    Punt
    21.6%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:07UK 4th & 7 at LOU 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:11LOU 4th & 6 at LOU 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:27UK 4th & 7 at UK 33, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:55UK 4th & 9 at UK 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:00UK 4th & 10 at UK 40, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:07UK 4th & 25 at UK 33, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−4.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:13LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 33, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−1.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:07UK 4th & 2 at UK 40, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%−1.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:40UK 4th & 13 at LOU 23, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−2.5
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−8.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:31LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 45, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.5 ptsPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%−3.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:48UK 4th & 2 at LOU 10, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%
    55% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.2%−2.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−15.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:30LOU 4th & 1 at UK 18, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.6%−6.6
    79% to make
    Punt
    45.3%−23.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:23UK 4th & 1 at UK 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.1%−11.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:35UK 4th & 10 at UK 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.9%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.5%−3.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 12:39UK Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:00LOU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:38LOU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:30UK Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:45LOU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:53LOU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:32UK Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.6%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:31UK Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.5%−2.7
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:47LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:4180% → 79%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.0%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-9
79.8%
Reggie Bonnafon sacked by Za'Darius Smith for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 18Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+3
79.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+3
79.4%
Ryan Johnson punt for 44 yds , Demarco Robinson returns for 3 yds to the Kent 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1121% → 21%
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
79.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 3 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+1
79.2%
Braylon Heard run for 1 yd to the Kent 42Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
79.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Demarco RobinsonSimilar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 6
OWN 42
+10
79.2%
Landon Foster punt for 53 yds , Eli Rogers returns for 10 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3INT
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:4579% → 79%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
79.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+8
79.1%
Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to DeVante Parker for 8 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
79.0%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 5 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
78.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
78.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for 11 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+30
78.8%
Reggie Bonnafon pass intercepted A.J. Stamps return for 30 yds to the Kent 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4FG
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:3322% → 23%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
77.9%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Demarco RobinsonSimilar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+43
78.0%
Stanley Williams run for 43 yds to the Lvile 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
77.5%
Patrick Towles run for 1 yd to the Lvile 13Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+7
77.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 7 yds to the Lvile 6Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 2
OPP 6
0
77.2%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Ronnie ShieldsSimilar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+22
77.1%
Austin MacGinnis 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:5077% → 76%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.1%
Michael Dyer run for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
76.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Tobijah Hughley) to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-8
76.4%
Reggie Bonnafon sacked by Blake McClain for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 12Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+8
75.9%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 8 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+2
75.7%
Ryan Johnson punt for 35 yds , Demarco Robinson returns for 2 yds to the Kent 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6FG
11 plays · 26 yds · 3:1024% → 27%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
75.7%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Ryan TimmonsSimilar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+11
75.7%
Patrick Towles run for 11 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
75.2%
Mikel Horton run for 1 yd to the Lvile 41Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+6
75.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Javess Blue for 6 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+2
74.6%
Mikel Horton run for 2 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q1 2:28
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+3
75.2%
Patrick Towles run for 3 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
74.1%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+1
73.9%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the Lvile 27Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
74.0%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:07
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+45
72.7%
Austin MacGinnis 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q1 1:07
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
73.3%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sheldon Rankins) to the Kent 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5174% → 72%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.5%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Gerald ChristianSimilar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.3%
Michael Dyer run for 4 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q1 0:21
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
72.9%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to DeVante Parker, broken up by Fred TillerSimilar
Q1 0:11
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+4
72.4%
- Team punt blocked by Javess Blue blocked by Javess Blue Ryan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:2129% → 37%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
71.1%
Stanley Williams run for 13 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
70.9%
Patrick Towles run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 22Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+9
70.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Demarco Robinson for 9 yds to the Lvile 13Similar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+4
69.7%
Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the Lvile 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
68.8%
Jojo Kemp run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 11Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
63.1%
Stanley Williams 11 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:1866% → 72%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
65.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 41Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+4
64.8%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 4 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+10
64.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Eli Rogers for 10 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
72.1%
DeVante Parker 45 Yd pass from Kyle Bolin (John Wallace Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:1831% → 32%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
69.0%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Kent 30Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
68.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for 3 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
67.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Ryan TimmonsSimilar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
67.6%
Landon Foster punt for 29 yds, downed at the Lvile 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:2769% → 79%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
68.8%
Michael Dyer run for 4 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+7
69.3%
Kyle Bolin run for 7 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+32
69.2%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Michael Dyer for 32 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+17
69.7%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Gerald Christian for 17 yds to the Kent 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
69.7%
Michael Dyer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 3Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
78.8%
Michael Dyer 3 Yd Run (John Wallace Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3725% → 23%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.5%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Demarco RobinsonSimilar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
75.6%
Demarco Robinson run for no gain to the Kent 25Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
76.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Steven Borden for 1 yd to the Kent 26Similar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
76.6%
Landon Foster punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Eli Rogers at the Lvile 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13INT TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:1376% → 63%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
76.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Lvile 31Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+3
76.1%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Brandon Radcliff for 3 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+40
63.0%
Fred Tiller 40 Yd Interception Return (Austin MacGinnis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14TD
11 plays · 47 yds · 2:2266% → 77%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
65.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for 9 yds to the Kent 38Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+3
65.3%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Gerald Christian for 3 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
66.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Tobijah Hughley) to the Kent 40Similar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+12
63.6%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to James Quick for 12 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+27
65.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Eli Rogers for 27 yds to the Kent 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the Kent 1Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
65.7%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Offside (Alvin Dupree) to the Kent 1Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
65.6%
Kyle Bolin run for no gain to the Kent 1Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.0%
Brandon Radcliff 1 Yd Run (John Wallace Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:4226% → 26%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.9%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Demarco RobinsonSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
73.9%
Stanley Williams run for 6 yds to the Kent 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:3028% → 27%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
72.5%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 21Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+19
72.5%
Stanley Williams run for 19 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
70.7%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Kent 40Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
70.8%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Kent 40Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
71.6%
Patrick Towles run for no gain to the Kent 40Similar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+4
72.9%
Landon Foster punt for 45 yds , Eli Rogers returns for 4 yds to the Lvile 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 1:4572% → 85%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
72.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+1
72.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Lvile 25Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+23
71.2%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to DeVante Parker for 23 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
74.4%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to DeVante ParkerSimilar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
73.8%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Kai De La Cruz, broken up by Josh ForrestSimilar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+19
72.8%
Kyle Bolin run for 4 yds to the LOUISVILLE 48 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Personal Foul (Mike Douglas) to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
84.7%
DeVante Parker 33 Yd pass from Kyle Bolin (John Wallace Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:3219% → 17%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
81.5%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Demarco Robinson, broken up by Charles GainesSimilar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
81.8%
Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+17
82.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Joey Herrick for 17 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
79.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Mikel Horton for no gain Mikel Horton fumbled, recovered by Kent Patrick TowlesSimilar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 14
OWN 44
0
81.3%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Kent 44Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 14
OWN 44
-11
81.9%
Patrick Towles sacked by Keith Kelsey for a loss of 11 yards to the Kent 33Similar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 25
OWN 33
+6
83.0%
Landon Foster punt for 43 yds , Eli Rogers returns for 6 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:2883% → 84%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
83.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
85.0%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to DeVante ParkerSimilar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
84.2%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to DeVante ParkerSimilar
Q3 6:13
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+35
83.5%
Ryan Johnson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Demarco Robinson at the LOUISVILLE 32 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct ( Yards) to the Kent 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5318% → 17%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
82.0%
Braylon Heard run for 1 yd to the Kent 33Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+6
82.4%
Braylon Heard run for 6 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+1
81.5%
Patrick Towles run for 1 yd to the Kent 40Similar
Q3 4:07
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
83.1%
Landon Foster punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:1786% → 87%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
86.0%
Kyle Bolin run for no gain to the Lvile 20Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
85.9%
Michael Dyer run for 4 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+12
85.8%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Eli Rogers for 12 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
87.2%
Michael Dyer run for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 20 Michael Dyer fumbled, forced by Alvin Dupree, recovered by Kent Za'Darius Smith , return for 8 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22FG
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:4819% → 26%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
80.7%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Demarco RobinsonSimilar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
81.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Ryan TimmonsSimilar
Q3 1:51
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-3
82.7%
Patrick Towles sacked by Deiontrez Mount for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 23Similar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 13
OPP 23
+40
73.8%
Austin MacGinnis 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:5976% → 76%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
75.5%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Charles Standberry for 8 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
77.0%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
76.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Lvile 37Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+2
75.9%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 2 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+6
75.1%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Eli Rogers for 6 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 13:31
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
76.0%
Ryan Johnson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Demarco Robinson at the Kent 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24FG
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3027% → 36%
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
72.6%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the Kent 16Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+3
72.8%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 19Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+42
73.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Joey Herrick for 42 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+21
67.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Braylon Heard for 21 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
64.6%
Braylon Heard run for 3 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+2
64.4%
Braylon Heard run for 2 yds to the Lvile 13Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+3
65.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for 3 yds to the Lvile 10Similar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+27
63.9%
Austin MacGinnis 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:1070% → 42%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
69.9%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-30
41.6%
Mike Douglas 30 Yd Fumble Return (Austin MacGinnis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26TD
7 plays · 96 yds · 1:2940% → 72%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
40.2%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
39.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the Lvile 4Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 10
OWN 4
+29
37.1%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to James Quick for 29 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
40.7%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Keith TowbridgeSimilar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+22
40.2%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 22 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
72.1%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to DeVante Parker for 45 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bolin intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 27INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0836% → 35%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.5%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Javess BlueSimilar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
64.7%
Patrick Towles pass intercepted James Sample return for 7 yds to the Kent 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 28FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0073% → 80%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
73.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+6
72.7%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Eli Rogers for 6 yds to the Kent 18Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 1
OPP 18
0
70.8%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Keith Towbridge LOUISVILLE Penalty, Illegal Shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:30
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+36
80.4%
John Wallace 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 29TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4829% → 75%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+50
71.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Demarco Robinson for 50 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
62.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Blake Bone for 11 yds to the Lvile 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
24.6%
Stanley Williams run for 14 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 30TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 2:1839% → 89%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
39.0%
Bolin, Kyle pass sacked for loss of 5 yards to the LOUISVILLE14 (Smith, Za'Darius), PENALTY KENTUCKY personal foul (Smith, Za'Darius) 15 yards to the LOUISVILLE34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
39.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for 7 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 3
OWN 41
0
43.6%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to DeVante ParkerSimilar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+9
41.4%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to James Quick for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
50
+11
44.0%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 11 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+26
44.8%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to DeVante Parker for 26 yds to the Kent 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
46.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 9 yds to the Kent 4Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+4
88.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 31INT
14 plays · 21 yds · 1:5824% → 12%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
76.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Stanley Williams for 7 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
73.3%
Patrick Towles run for 4 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
75.0%
Patrick Towles run for 5 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
71.8%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
72.9%
Braylon Heard run for 1 yd to the Kent 45Similar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+1
77.2%
Patrick Towles run for 1 yd to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
76.8%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
77.8%
Patrick Towles run for 1 yd to the Kent 47Similar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-1
85.1%
Patrick Towles sacked by Gerod Holliman for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 46Similar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+65
87.7%
Patrick Towles pass intercepted Gerod Holliman return for 65 yds to the Kent 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 32END OF GAME
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
96.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Kent 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:47
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)
+41.9
TD · Q4 5:31
Stanley Williams run for 14 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
-37.7
TD · Q4 7:58
Kyle Bolin pass complete to DeVante Parker for 45 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bolin intercepted )
+31.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com