Kansas

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0310th
  Defense+0.401st
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense37.6%12th
  Defense54.7%1st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3374th
  Defense+1.2557th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.036th
  Defense+0.352nd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2456th
  Defense+0.552nd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense42.5%10th
  Defense59.2%1st
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense27.4%14th
  Defense40.5%1st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.8926th
  Defense3.811st
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.7%59th
  Defense11.3%3rd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense17.0%38th
  Defense11.4%1st

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Kansas allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   SDAK
2. L
   CCU
3. L
   BAY
4. L
   DUKE
5. L
   ISU
6. L
   TTU
7. L
   OU
8. L
   OKST
9. L
   KSU
10. W
    TEX
11. L
    TCU
12. L
    WVU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Kansas.

Players, 2021

1. Jalon DanielsQB129 plays · +0.218 pts/play · 125th of 219 QBs
   0.53WAR0.26 to 0.80
2. Jason BeanQB149 plays · +0.184 pts/play · 128th of 219 QBs
   0.51WAR0.18 to 0.85
3. Devin NealRB117 plays · +0.201 pts/play · 83rd of 387 RBs
   0.44WAR0.34 to 0.55
4. Kwamie Lassiter IIWR63 plays · +0.155 pts/play · 83rd of 474 WRs
   0.18WAR0.11 to 0.25
5. Amauri Pesek-HicksonRB43 plays · +0.145 pts/play · 275th of 387 RBs
   0.12WAR0.09 to 0.15
6. Luke GrimmWR26 plays · +0.176 pts/play · 273rd of 474 WRs
   0.09WAR0.06 to 0.11
7. Trevor WilsonWR32 plays · +0.133 pts/play · 288th of 474 WRs
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.11
8. Lawrence ArnoldWR25 plays · +0.130 pts/play · 349th of 474 WRs
   0.06WAR0.04 to 0.08

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Kansas's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  54854872nd of 130Roster talent: 548, 72nd of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  17717761st of 130Recruiting: 177, 61st of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  82%82%54th of 128Returning production: 82%, 54th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −19.7−19.7123rd of 130SP+ rating: −19.7, 123rd of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Kansas's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.03 of the 0.07 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs WVUQ4 3:06 4th & 11 at WVU 17, down 13Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−2.0 pts
2. at DUKEQ3 8:28 4th & 2 at KU 39, down 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
3. vs SDAKQ2 4:28 4th & 3 at KU 46, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
4. vs SDAKQ2 11:58 4th & 2 at KU 47, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
5. at CCUQ4 11:21 4th & 10 at CCU 15, down 20Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.5 pts
6. at DUKEQ3 1:36 4th & 3 at KU 37, down 15Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
7. at CCUQ4 0:39 4th & 9 at CCU 17, down 27Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.3 pts
8. vs KSUQ3 12:54 4th & 3 at KU 27, down 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

55th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Kansas's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   SDAK
2. L

   CCU
3. L

   BAY
4. L

   DUKE
5. L

   ISU
6. L

   TTU
7. L

   OU
8. L

   OKST
9. L

   KSU
10. W

    TEX
11. L

    TCU
12. L

    WVU

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Kansas's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−2.02
• Possession & field position+0.04
• Clock−0.10
• Timeouts+0.09
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.89

Game by game

• SDAKW 17-14 vs SDAK83% → 24%Before kickoff +33 · On the field −59: Scoreboard −36, Clock −4
• CCUL 22-49 at CCU5% → 0%Before kickoff −45 · On the field −5: Scoreboard −7
• BAYL 7-45 vs BAY15% → 0%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −15: Scoreboard −20, Clock −1
• DUKEL 33-52 at DUKE15% → 1%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −14: Scoreboard −20, Possession & field position +1
• ISUL 7-59 at ISU2% → 0%Before kickoff −48 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −3
• TTUL 14-41 vs TTU13% → 6%Before kickoff −37 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −26, Clock −1
• OUL 23-35 vs OU1% → 2%Before kickoff −49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard −7
• OKSTL 3-55 at OKST4% → 0%Before kickoff −46 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −6
• KSUL 10-35 vs KSU7% → 3%Before kickoff −43 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −17, Clock −1
• TEXW 57-56 at TEX4% → 18%Before kickoff −46 · On the field +14: Scoreboard −17, Timeouts +10
• TCUL 28-31 at TCU9% → 5%Before kickoff −41 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −15, Timeouts −1
• WVUL 28-34 vs WVU15% → 6%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −9: Scoreboard −27, Clock −2

Points of win probability, from Kansas's side.

Closest call

KU 55-42 WVU (2022) - Kansas dropped to a 3.0% win probability before pulling it out.