Kansas

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0413th
  Defense+0.2020th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense35.2%2nd
  Defense43.4%41st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2264th
  Defense+1.2435th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.0112th
  Defense+0.1918th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1226th
  Defense+0.2535th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense40.1%5th
  Defense47.0%51st
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense26.8%6th
  Defense36.1%23rd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.376th
  Defense3.1419th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense22.7%18th
  Defense17.1%17th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense1.4%90th
  Defense1.4%13th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Kansas allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   SEMO
2. L
   DUKE
3. W
   CMU
4. L
   TEX
5. L
   WVU
6. L
   OKST
7. L
   TTU
8. L
   BAY
9. W
   ISU
10. L
    TCU
11. L
    OU
12. L
    KSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Kansas.

Players, 2014

1. Michael CummingsQB190 plays · +0.246 pts/play · 109th of 199 QBs
   0.87WAR0.55 to 1.18
2. Montell CozartQB137 plays · +0.110 pts/play · 155th of 199 QBs
   0.28WAR0.11 to 0.48
3. Corey AveryRB102 plays · +0.101 pts/play · 120th of 350 RBs
   0.19WAR0.11 to 0.27
4. De'Andre MannRB65 plays · +0.101 pts/play · 183rd of 350 RBs
   0.12WAR0.08 to 0.17
5. Nigel KingWR41 plays · +0.125 pts/play · 215th of 469 WRs
   0.10WAR0.03 to 0.16
6. Jimmay MundineTE47 plays · +0.082 pts/play · 1st of 212 TEs
   0.07WAR−0.01 to 0.16
7. Trevor PardulaP51 plays · +0.065 pts/play · 60th of 94 punters
   0.06WAR−0.03 to 0.14
8. Nick HarwellWR48 plays · +0.065 pts/play · 320th of 469 WRs
   0.06WAR0.00 to 0.11

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Kansas's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Kansas's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.09 of the 0.15 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs CMUQ3 1:32 4th & 1 at CMU 18, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.9 pts
2. vs ISUQ3 13:48 4th & 11 at ISU 29, up 10Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.3 pts
3. vs TCUQ4 7:42 4th & 6 at TCU 6, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
4. vs TCUQ4 9:14 4th & 5 at midfield, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
5. vs TCUQ2 1:07 4th & 14 at TCU 36, up 3Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−1.0 pts
6. vs OKSTQ4 6:55 4th & 1 at OKST 18, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
7. vs CMUQ4 7:13 4th & 7 at CMU 41, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
8. vs CMUQ3 9:52 4th & 3 at CMU 10, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

52nd of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Kansas's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   SEMO
2. L

   DUKE
3. W

   CMU
4. L

   TEX
5. L

   WVU
6. L

   OKST
7. L

   TTU
8. L

   BAY
9. W

   ISU
10. L

    TCU
11. L

    OU
12. L

    KSU

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Kansas's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.32
• Possession & field position−0.01
• Clock−0.02
• Timeouts+0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.65

Game by game

• SEMOW 34-28 vs SEMO95% → 96%Before kickoff +45 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +10, Timeouts +1
• DUKEL 3-41 at DUKE10% → 0%Before kickoff −40 · On the field −10: Scoreboard −12
• CMUW 24-10 vs CMU60% → 99%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +39: Scoreboard +37, Timeouts +1
• TEXL 0-23 vs TEX17% → 1%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −16: Scoreboard −26
• WVUL 14-33 at WVU7% → 1%Before kickoff −43 · On the field −6: Scoreboard −11
• OKSTL 20-27 vs OKST9% → 4%Before kickoff −41 · On the field −6: Scoreboard −20, Clock −1
• TTUL 21-34 at TTU19% → 1%Before kickoff −31 · On the field −18: Scoreboard −22, Timeouts −1
• BAYL 14-60 at BAY2% → 0%Before kickoff −48 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −4
• ISUW 34-14 vs ISU40% → 100%Before kickoff −10 · On the field +60: Scoreboard +50, Timeouts +1
• TCUL 30-34 vs TCU7% → 4%Before kickoff −43 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −16, Clock −1
• OUL 7-44 at OU6% → 2%Before kickoff −44 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −11
• KSUL 13-51 at KSU4% → 0%Before kickoff −46 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −7

Points of win probability, from Kansas's side.

Closest call

KU 55-42 WVU (2022) - Kansas dropped to a 3.0% win probability before pulling it out.