Try the model
CMU

Central Michigan 10 at Kansas 24

KU
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:24 · Trevor Pardula punt for 47 yds , Amari Coleman returns for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 143Home team on offense+12.8Pregame prior+1.8Garbage-time factor+9.3Score differential+3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.4Blowout margin−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 9:52: Matthew Wyman 27 yd FG GOOD — KU win probability +7.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:11: Martez Walker run for 18 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +19.5 pts (now 51%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:32: Martez Walker run for 4 yds to the CMich 24 — CMU win probability +6.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:23: Montell Cozart pass complete to Justin McCay for 60 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK) — KU win probability +23.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:13: Michael Cummings run for 2 yds to the CMich 42 — KU win probability +9.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9CMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 14:34CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:06KU 4th & 16 at KU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:39KU 4th & 5 at CMU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    60.6%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    60.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:37CMU 4th & 6 at KU 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    37.2%−0.3
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00KU 4th & 5 at KU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:14CMU 4th & 6 at KU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−5.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:05KU 4th & 3 at KU 40, up 4
    Close callPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:09CMU 4th & 4 at CMU 43, down 4
    Close callPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:34KU 4th & 21 at KU 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−2.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:12CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−0.5
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:52KU 4th & 3 at CMU 10, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.0%−0.8
    88% to make
    Punt
    59.0%−8.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:32KU 4th & 1 at CMU 18, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.5%−3.9
    79% to make
    Punt
    45.1%−15.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:32CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 29, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.7 ptsPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%−4.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:23CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−2.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:24KU 4th & 9 at KU 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−2.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:46CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 37, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%−1.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:13KU 4th & 7 at CMU 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    87.0%−1.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%−0.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:03CMU 4th & 18 at CMU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−2.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:42KU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 6:11CMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:23KU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:58KU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KUDrive 1TD
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
59.7%
Tony Pierson run for 74 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
59.7%
Corey Willis run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 37Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+1
59.7%
Anthony Garland run for 1 yd to the CMich 38Similar
Q1 14:34
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
59.8%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 14:34
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+50
59.8%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 40 yds KANSAS Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Kans 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
60.3%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Tony Pierson for 3 yds to the Kans 15Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 7
OWN 15
-1
60.3%
Montell Cozart run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 14Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+15
60.2%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Jimmay Mundine for 15 yds to the Kans 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
60.3%
De'Andre Mann run for no gain to the Kans 29Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
60.3%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Nick HarwellSimilar
Q1 13:06
4TH & 16
OWN 23
0
60.2%
Trevor Pardula punt for 35 yds, downed at the CMich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
60.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Garland for no gain to the CMich 42Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-7
61.0%
Cooper Rush sacked by Michael Reynolds for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 40 Cooper Rush fumbled, recovered by Kans Ben Goodman , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 5INT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
62.2%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Nigel King for 4 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+1
62.3%
Tony Pierson run for 1 yd to the CMich 35Similar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
62.1%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Nigel KingSimilar
Q1 9:39
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+11
61.8%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Jimmay Mundine for 11 yds to the CMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
62.3%
Corey Avery run for no gain to the CMich 24Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
62.3%
Joe Dineen Jr. pass complete to Montell Cozart for 5 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
62.1%
Montell Cozart pass intercepted Mitch Stanitzek return for no gain to the CMich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
14 plays · 49 yds · 6:0137% → 36%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
62.6%
Saylor Lavallii run for 5 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+3
62.6%
Saylor Lavallii run for 3 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+4
62.7%
Devon Spalding run for 4 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
62.5%
Cooper Rush run for 10 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
62.3%
Devon Spalding run for 3 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+9
62.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
50
-2
61.8%
Saylor Lavallii run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 48Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+13
62.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 13 yds to the Kans 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
61.8%
Saylor Lavallii run for 5 yds to the Kans 34Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+4
61.3%
Devon Spalding run for 4 yds to the Kans 30Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 1
OPP 30
-5
61.7%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Kans 35Similar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
63.7%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse Kroll, broken up by Matthew BoatengSimilar
Q1 0:37
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
64.4%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 0:2465% → 65%
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
65.4%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Ben Johnson for 1 yd to the Kans 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
65.4%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Ben Johnson, broken up by Louis PalmerSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-5
65.0%
KANSAS Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Kans 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+14
64.9%
Montell Cozart pass complete to De'Andre Mann for 14 yds to the Kans 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
65.7%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Nick Harwell for 6 yds to the Kans 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+5
66.4%
De'Andre Mann run for 5 yds to the Kans 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
66.5%
KANSAS Penalty, false start (Tony Pierson) to the Kans 36Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 36
-6
65.7%
Montell Cozart sacked by Jabari Dean and Tim Hamilton for a loss of 6 yards to the Kans 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 21
OWN 30
+8
65.4%
Corey Avery run for 8 yds to the Kans 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+8
65.4%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Ben Johnson for 8 yds to the Kans 46Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
65.3%
Trevor Pardula punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 7 , Amari Coleman returns for no gain to the CMich 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8FG
12 plays · 73 yds · 5:3433% → 37%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
66.9%
Devon Spalding run for 4 yds to the CMich 11Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+20
66.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Deon Butler for 20 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
66.0%
Devon Spalding run for 1 yd to the CMich 32Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+15
66.1%
RUSH, Cooper pass incomplete to WILLIS, Corey, PENALTY KU pass interference (Shepherd, J.) 15 yards to the CMU47, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
64.8%
Saylor Lavallii run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 7
50
-1
64.5%
Saylor Lavallii run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 49Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+17
65.4%
Cooper Rush run for 17 yds to the Kans 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
63.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 10 yds to the Kans 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
63.6%
Anthony Garland run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 25Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+5
63.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Joe Bacci for 5 yds to the Kans 20Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
64.6%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Mike KinvilleSimilar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
63.5%
Brian Eavey 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
64.6%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Nick Harwell for no gain to the Kans 33Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
64.5%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Nigel King for 6 yds to the Kans 39Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+1
64.9%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Tony Pierson for 1 yd to the Kans 40Similar
Q2 6:05
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
63.9%
Trevor Pardula punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:0635% → 32%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
64.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 14 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
63.8%
Devon Spalding run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 36Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
64.4%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Devon SpaldingSimilar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+7
68.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Deon Butler for 7 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 3:09
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
67.6%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Johnson at the Kans 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
65.4%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Nigel King for 7 yds to the Kans 17Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+6
65.4%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Jimmay Mundine for 6 yds to the Kans 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
65.6%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Tony PiersonSimilar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
65.3%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Corey Avery for 4 yds to the Kans 27Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+9
65.0%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Jimmay Mundine for 9 yds to the Kans 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
66.4%
Montell Cozart run for 1 yd to the Kans 37Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
66.0%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Nigel KingSimilar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-5
65.4%
KANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kans 32Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 14
OWN 32
-7
64.5%
Montell Cozart run for a loss of 7 yards to the Kans 25 Montell Cozart fumbled, recovered by Kans Corey AverySimilar
Q2 2:34
4TH & 21
OWN 25
+8
63.8%
Trevor Pardula punt for 65 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 9 , Amari Coleman returns for 8 yds to the CMich 33 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, illegal block (Tim Hamilton) to the CMich 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:2031% → 31%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
69.1%
Saylor Lavallii run for 3 yds to the CMich 12Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+3
68.5%
Devon Spalding run for 3 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+3
68.8%
Devon Spalding run for 3 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 1
OWN 18
+42
69.0%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Nick Harwell at the 50 yard line KANSAS Penalty, Offensive holding (N/A) to the Kans 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
66.9%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Nick HarwellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14FUMBLE
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0036% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
63.8%
LAVALLII, S. rush for 2 yards to the CMU27 (Love,Jake;Goodman,Ben), PENALTY CMU holding (PHILLIPS, Andy) 10 yards to the CMU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-5
64.0%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (N/A) to the CMich 10Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 10
+10
64.0%
RUSH, Cooper pass intercepted by McDonald,Dexter at the CMU40, McDonald,Dexter return to the CMU30, out-of-bounds (RUSH, Cooper), PENALTY KU holding (Johnson,Isaiah) 10 yards to the CMU20, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
63.7%
Devon Spalding run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+12
64.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 12 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
63.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mike Kinville for 8 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 39
0
61.2%
Devon Spalding run for no gain to the CMich 39 Devon Spalding fumbled, forced by Ben Heeney, recovered by Kans T.J. SemkeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 15FG
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:5767% → 74%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
67.4%
Corey Avery run for 4 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+18
68.2%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Jimmay Mundine for 18 yds to the CMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
68.2%
Corey Avery run for 6 yds to the CMich 11Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+1
68.2%
Corey Avery run for 1 yd to the CMich 10Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
67.0%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Corey AverySimilar
Q3 9:52
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+27
74.3%
Matthew Wyman 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:4129% → 51%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
71.4%
Martez Walker run for 14 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
69.8%
Martez Walker run for 7 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+1
68.8%
Martez Walker run for 1 yd to the CMich 47Similar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+6
69.0%
Martez Walker run for 6 yds to the Kans 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
68.2%
Martez Walker run for no gain to the Kans 47Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+29
68.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 29 yds to the Kans 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
49.4%
Martez Walker run for 18 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17MISSED FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 4:3159% → 60%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
59.2%
Montell Cozart run for 3 yds to the Kans 35Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+3
59.6%
De'Andre Mann run for 3 yds to the Kans 38Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+8
60.2%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Tony Pierson for 8 yds to the Kans 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
62.1%
De'Andre Mann run for 14 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
63.0%
De'Andre Mann run for 4 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+1
63.1%
De'Andre Mann run for 1 yd to the CMich 35Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+8
62.6%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Jimmay Mundine for 8 yds to the CMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
64.1%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Nick Harwell for 5 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+4
64.1%
Corey Avery run for 4 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 1
OPP 18
0
62.6%
Corey Avery run for no gain to the CMich 18 Corey Avery fumbled, forced by Justin Cherocci, recovered by Kans Corey AverySimilar
Q3 1:32
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+35
59.9%
Matthew Wyman 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
53.3%
Martez Walker run for 4 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
52.6%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse Kroll, broken up by JaCorey ShepherdSimilar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+5
54.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Courtney Williams for 5 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q3 1:32
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
54.7%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 43 yds, downed at the Kans 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:5958% → 83%
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
57.7%
De'Andre Mann run for 1 yd to the Kans 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+2
57.4%
Tony Pierson run for 2 yds to the Kans 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+8
56.2%
Montell Cozart run for 8 yds to the Kans 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
59.7%
Cozart,Montell pass complete to Harwell,Nick for 12 yards to the CMU49 (ANNESE, Tony), PENALTY KU ineligible downfield on pass (Mazyck,Larry) 5 yards to the KU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+6
57.2%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Justin McCay for 6 yds to the Kans 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
59.5%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Nick HarwellSimilar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+60
82.7%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Justin McCay for 60 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0021% → 19%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.6%
Martez Walker run for 4 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
77.6%
Martez Walker run for 2 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-6
78.4%
Cooper Rush sacked by Courtney Arnick for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 25Similar
Q4 13:23
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
81.0%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Nick Harwell at the Kans 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0084% → 81%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
83.6%
De'Andre Mann run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 30Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+7
82.9%
Montell Cozart run for 7 yds to the Kans 37Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 5
OWN 37
-4
83.4%
Montell Cozart pass complete to De'Andre Mann for a loss of 4 yards to the Kans 33Similar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 9
OWN 33
-2
81.3%
Trevor Pardula punt for 47 yds , Amari Coleman returns for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
79.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 12 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
78.8%
Martez Walker run for no gain to the CMich 30Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-9
80.0%
Cooper Rush sacked by Jake Love for a loss of 9 yards to the CMich 21Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 19
OWN 21
+16
81.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 16 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q4 9:46
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+30
80.0%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 37 yds , Nick Harwell returns for 30 yds to the CMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0089% → 87%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
89.2%
Michael Cummings run for 2 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+1
89.0%
Corey Avery run for 1 yd to the CMich 41Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
88.2%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Jimmay MundineSimilar
Q4 7:13
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
86.9%
Trevor Pardula punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0016% → 14%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
83.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse Kroll, broken up by Dexter McDonaldSimilar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-2
84.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Saylor Lavallii for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 24Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 12
OWN 24
-6
85.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Saylor Lavallii for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 18Similar
Q4 6:03
4TH & 18
OWN 18
+16
86.4%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 44 , Nick Harwell returns for 16 yds to the CMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 25TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:2893% → 99%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
92.5%
Nick Harwell run for 5 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-2
92.4%
Montell Cozart run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 41Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+10
91.8%
Corey Avery run for 10 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
92.6%
Corey Avery run for 3 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-2
94.9%
Corey Avery run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 30Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+30
98.6%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Corey Avery for 30 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 26INT
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
97.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 16 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
97.4%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse KrollSimilar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
97.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
50
0
97.3%
Cooper Rush pass intercepted JaCorey Shepherd return for no gain to the Kans 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 45Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 12
OWN 45
-2
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:23
Montell Cozart pass complete to Justin McCay for 60 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)
+23.2
TD · Q3 6:11
Martez Walker run for 18 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
-19.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 7:13
Michael Cummings run for 2 yds to the CMich 42
+9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com