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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:02 · Trevor Pardula punt for 55 yds, downed at the Okla 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:05: Samaje Perine run for 33 yds for a TD, (Michael Hunnicutt KICK) — OU win probability +3.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:41: Samaje Perine run for 34 yds for a TD, (Michael Hunnicutt KICK) — OU win probability +2.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:56: Samaje Perine run for 66 yds for a TD, (Michael Hunnicutt KICK) — OU win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:34: Timeout OKLAHOMA, clock 13:34 — KU win probability +5.6 pts (now 8%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 9:30: Michael Hunnicutt 37 yd FG GOOD — OU win probability +1.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10KU made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
- Q1 15:00OU 4th & 1 at KU 45, tiedClose callPunted · 93.9% before the snapGo for it93.9%70% to convertField goal93.7%−0.325% to makePuntTheir call93.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 12:56KU 4th & 6 at KU 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snapGo for it6.5%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.5%average punt
- Q1 11:24KU 4th & 1 at KU 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:30KU 4th & 6 at KU 13, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snapGo for it6.9%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.9%average punt
- Q1 2:46OU 4th & 9 at KU 21, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snapGo for it91.9%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call92.1%74% to makePunt91.3%−0.8average punt
- Q1 2:46KU 4th & 1 at KU 34, down 10Close callPunted · 7.8% before the snapGo for it8.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.8%−0.2average punt
- Q2 15:00OU 4th & 2 at OU 35, up 10Close callPunted · 91.6% before the snapGo for it91.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 13:01KU 4th & 3 at KU 49, down 10Close callPunted · 8.5% before the snapGo for it8.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 12:47OU 4th & 1 at OU 25, up 10Close callPunted · 91.1% before the snapGo for it91.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.0%−0.5average punt
- Q2 11:31KU 4th & 13 at KU 34, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snapGo for it8.2%−0.520% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.7%average punt
- Q2 4:00KU 4th & 14 at KU 31, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snapGo for it4.9%−1.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.0%average punt
- Q2 0:07KU 4th & 2 at KU 33, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.1%−0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%average punt
- Q3 15:00KU 4th & 18 at KU 17, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.712% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%average punt
- Q3 9:30OU 4th & 5 at KU 20, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snapGo for it95.5%−0.140% to convertField goalTheir call95.6%75% to makePunt92.8%−2.9average punt
- Q3 9:30KU 4th & 14 at KU 21, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snapGo for it4.2%−1.517% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.7%average punt
- Q3 6:04OU 4th & 2 at KU 27, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.0%57% to convertField goal95.6%−0.562% to makePunt93.3%−2.7average punt
- Q3 6:04KU 4th & 1 at KU 34, down 17Close callPunted · 4.6% before the snapGo for it5.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.5%−0.7average punt
- Q3 4:36OU 4th & 9 at OU 31, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snapGo for it95.7%−0.831% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.5%average punt
- Q4 15:00KU 4th & 6 at OU 16, down 17Close callWent for it · 3.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.4%−0.338% to convertField goal3.7%81% to makePunt0.3%−3.4average punt
- Q4 12:59OU 4th & 7 at KU 31, up 17Close callWent for it · 97.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.0%−<0.137% to convertField goal97.0%54% to makePunt96.6%−0.4average punt
- Q4 8:02OU 4th & 9 at KU 19, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.2%−0.230% to convertField goalTheir call97.4%77% to makePunt95.8%−1.6average punt
- Q4 8:02KU 4th & 18 at KU 27, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.812% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q4 6:06OU 4th & 5 at OU 42, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snapGo for it97.8%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 11:24OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.4%97% to makeGo for two93.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:05OU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.7%97% to makeGo for two93.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:41OU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.2%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:56OU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:006% → 6%
OUDrive 3TD1 play · 49 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
93.9%
Samaje Perine run for 49 yds for a TD, (Michael Hunnicutt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4FUMBLE7 plays · -4 yds · 0:006% → 6%
OUDrive 5FUMBLE2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
KUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:007% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7FG12 plays · 46 yds · 4:0593% → 93%
Q1 6:51
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+19
93.2%
Cody Thomas pass complete to Samaje Perine for 19 yds to the Kans 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+15
93.4%
Thomas, Cody pass incomplete to Neal, Durron, PENALTY KU pass interference (McDonald,Dexter) 15 yards to the KU22, 1ST DOWN OU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.1%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Jimmay Mundine for 7 yds to the Kans 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5593% → 92%
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
92.3%
Jed Barnett punt for 40 yds , Nick Harwell returns for no gain to the Kans 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 1:478% → 7%
Q2 13:01
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
92.3%
Michael Cummings pass incomplete to Nick Harwell, broken up by Steven ParkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 12:47
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+2
92.0%
Jed Barnett punt for 40 yds , Nick Harwell returns for 2 yds to the Kans 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 0:008% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13TD10 plays · 82 yds · 3:4892% → 96%
Q2 9:53
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+9
91.7%
Cody Thomas pass complete to Aaron Ripkowski for 9 yds to the Okla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14PUNT9 plays · 6 yds · 2:056% → 5%
OUDrive 15TD6 plays · 74 yds · 1:2896% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:343% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
97.1%
Trevor Pardula punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Zack Sanchez at the Okla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18TD1 play · 66 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
99.4%
Samaje Perine run for 66 yds for a TD, (Michael Hunnicutt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Michael Cummings pass intercepted Ahmad Thomas return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20FUMBLE TD1 play · 13 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
50
+63
97.7%
Keith Ford run for 11 yds Keith Ford fumbled, forced by Isaiah Johnson, recovered by Kans Cassius Sendish , return for 63 yds, (Matthew Wyman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22FG10 plays · 52 yds · 4:0494% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 9:30
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+14
94.9%
Trevor Pardula punt for 28 yds , Zack Sanchez returns for 14 yds to the Kans 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24TD4 plays · 35 yds · 1:5396% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 6:04
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
95.4%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Tony Pierson for 8 yds to the Kans 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
96.3%
Cody Thomas run for 8 yds to the Okla 38 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Okla 28Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
96.1%
Cody Thomas pass incomplete to Durron Neal, broken up by JaCorey ShepherdSimilar
Q3 4:36
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
95.9%
Jed Barnett punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Nick Harwell at the Kans 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 27DOWNS11 plays · 53 yds · 2:475% → 4%
Q3 2:47
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+13
95.5%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Nigel King for 13 yds to the Kans 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
95.4%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Jimmay Mundine for 9 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+5
95.0%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive offside (Charles Walker) to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+18
95.8%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Corey Avery for 18 yds to the Okla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+4
95.7%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Justin McCay for 4 yds to the Okla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 28FG10 plays · 64 yds · 4:5797% → 98%
Q4 12:59
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+11
97.3%
Cody Thomas pass complete to Durron Neal for 11 yds to the Kans 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 29PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 8:02
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-6
97.2%
Michael Cummings run for a loss of 6 yards to the Kans 27 Michael Cummings fumbled, recovered by Kans Michael CummingsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 30PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 31END OF GAME5 plays · 13 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:34
Timeout OKLAHOMA, clock 13:34
-5.6
TD · Q2 6:05
Samaje Perine run for 33 yds for a TD, (Michael Hunnicutt KICK)
+3.3
TD · Q3 13:56
Samaje Perine run for 66 yds for a TD, (Michael Hunnicutt KICK)
+2.3