Try the model
TCU

TCU 34 at Kansas 30

KU
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2014 · Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:14 · Trevor Pardula punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cameron Echols-Luper at the TCU 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 159Pregame prior−10.0Home team on offense−12.6Garbage-time factor−7.6Score differential−4.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:02: Michael Cummings run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK) — KU win probability +12.2 pts (now 47%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:47: Aaron Green run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +17.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 8:27: Michael Cummings pass complete to Nigel King for 78 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK) — KU win probability +16.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:48: Aaron Green run for 24 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK) — TCU win probability +25.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. FG · Q4 7:42: Matthew Wyman 23 yd FG GOOD — KU win probability +8.7 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 8:00KU 4th & 8 at TCU 23, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:20TCU 4th & 1 at KU 11, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    88.1%−0.3
    87% to make
    Punt
    87.1%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:22TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 23, down 6
    Close callPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:23KU 4th & 7 at KU 36, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:28KU 4th & 4 at KU 8, up 6
    Close callPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:41TCU 4th & 5 at KU 7, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−5.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:07KU 4th & 14 at TCU 36, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    25.9%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:07TCU 4th & 9 at TCU 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:43KU 4th & 14 at TCU 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−3.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:38KU 4th & 10 at KU 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−4.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:04KU 4th & 13 at KU 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−3.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:08TCU 4th & 8 at KU 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    62.0%−12.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:14KU 4th & 5 at midfield, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:42KU 4th & 6 at TCU 6, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.5%−1.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−12.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:09TCU 4th & 15 at KU 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    76.8%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:10TCU 4th & 1 at KU 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    80.0%−4.8
    84% to make
    Punt
    67.1%−17.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:36TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:49KU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    10.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:02KU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:02KU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:47TCU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:27KU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:48TCU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:0393% → 93%
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
6.8%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 5 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+4
7.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 4 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+1
7.1%
Trevone Boykin run for 1 yd to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+25
7.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 25 yds to the Kans 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
7.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 5 yds to the Kans 27Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
7.4%
Trevone Boykin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+27
7.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 27 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2TD
21 plays · 76 yds · 5:267% → 10%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
7.3%
Tony Pierson run for 12 yds to the Kans 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
7.4%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Nick Harwell for 9 yds to the Kans 46Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-10
7.6%
KANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tre' Parmalee) to the Kans 35Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
7.5%
Michael Cummings pass incomplete to Jimmay MundineSimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
7.5%
Michael Cummings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 12
OWN 35
+16
7.5%
TCU Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Paul Whitmill) to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
7.8%
Michael Cummings run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 49Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+14
7.8%
Tony Pierson run for 14 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
8.0%
Corey Avery run for 4 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
8.2%
Michael Cummings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+8
8.1%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Nigel King for 8 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
8.3%
Corey Avery run for 2 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
8.5%
Tony Pierson run for no gain to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
8.6%
Michael Cummings pass incomplete to Justin McCaySimilar
Q1 8:00
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+10
8.5%
T.J. Millweard pass complete to Trent Smiley for 10 yds to the TCU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
8.8%
Michael Cummings pass incomplete to Nigel KingSimilar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
8.9%
Michael Cummings run for 4 yds to the TCU 9Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 6
OPP 9
-5
8.8%
KANSAS Penalty, False Start (Joe Gibson) to the TCU 14Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+12
8.9%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Nick Harwell for 12 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
9.9%
Corey Avery run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:1990% → 89%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
9.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Aaron Green for 10 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+27
9.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 27 yds to the Kans 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
9.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 7 yds to the Kans 31Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+11
9.6%
Trevone Boykin run for 11 yds to the Kans 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
9.8%
Aaron Green run for 5 yds to the Kans 15Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+3
10.1%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the Kans 12Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+1
10.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ja'Juan Story for 1 yd to the Kans 11Similar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 1
OPP 11
0
10.9%
Aaron Green run for no gain to the Kans 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4TD
14 plays · 89 yds · 6:0711% → 19%
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
11.0%
Corey Avery run for 4 yds to the Kans 15Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+1
11.3%
De'Andre Mann run for 1 yd to the Kans 16Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+8
11.3%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Tre' Parmalee for 8 yds to the Kans 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
11.8%
De'Andre Mann run for no gain to the Kans 24Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
12.0%
Michael Cummings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+18
11.8%
Michael Cummings run for 18 yds to the Kans 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
13.2%
Michael Cummings run for a loss of 5 yards to the Kans 37 Michael Cummings fumbled, recovered by Kans Tony PiersonSimilar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+20
12.9%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Jimmay Mundine for 20 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
14.1%
De'Andre Mann run for 5 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+8
14.2%
Michael Cummings run for 8 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
14.9%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Jimmay Mundine for 17 yds to the TCU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
15.3%
Tony Pierson run for no gain to the TCU 13Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
15.7%
Michael Cummings pass incomplete to Nigel KingSimilar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+13
19.0%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Jimmay Mundine for 13 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:0382% → 81%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
17.9%
Aaron Green run for 1 yd to the TCU 15Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+3
18.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 3 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+5
18.7%
KANSAS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the TCU 23Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 1
OWN 23
0
18.5%
Trevone Boykin run for no gain to the TCU 23Similar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
19.5%
Ethan Perry punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Nick Harwell at the Kans 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4520% → 20%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
20.3%
De'Andre Mann run for 3 yds to the Kans 36Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
21.4%
Michael Cummings pass incomplete to Nigel KingSimilar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
20.7%
Michael Cummings pass incomplete to Justin McCaySimilar
Q2 9:23
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
20.3%
Trevor Pardula punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7INT
3 plays · 45 yds · 0:5180% → 82%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+38
19.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Josh Doctson for 38 yds to the Kans 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
19.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Aaron Green for 7 yds to the Kans 35Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
18.5%
Trevone Boykin pass intercepted JaCorey Shepherd return for no gain to the Kans 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4722% → 23%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
22.1%
Corey Avery run for 1 yd to the Kans 3Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
23.3%
Corey Avery run for no gain to the Kans 3Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+5
23.2%
Corey Avery run for 5 yds to the Kans 8Similar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 4
OWN 8
+6
23.3%
Trevor Pardula punt for 37 yds , Cameron Echols-Luper returns for 6 yds to the Kans 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:3579% → 78%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
21.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Aaron Green for 2 yds to the Kans 37Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+7
22.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Aaron Green for 7 yds to the Kans 30Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+18
22.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 18 yds to the Kans 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
21.8%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Ja'Juan StorySimilar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-2
22.1%
Trevone Boykin sacked by Jake Love for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 14Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 12
OPP 14
+7
24.0%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 7 yds to the Kans 7Similar
Q2 3:41
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
22.1%
Jaden Oberkrom 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 43 yds · 2:2024% → 24%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
23.6%
Tony Pierson run for 8 yds to the Kans 29Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 2
OWN 29
0
25.1%
Tony Pierson run for no gain to the Kans 29Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+6
24.1%
De'Andre Mann run for 6 yds to the Kans 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
25.1%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Nick Harwell for 2 yds to the Kans 37Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+31
25.8%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Nigel King for 31 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-4
28.5%
Michael Cummings sacked by Paul Dawson for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 36Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 14
OPP 36
0
26.4%
Michael Cummings pass incomplete to Nick HarwellSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 14
OPP 36
0
25.6%
Michael Cummings pass incomplete to Nigel KingSimilar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 14
OPP 36
+6
24.1%
Michael Cummings punt for 21 yds , Chris Hackett returns for 6 yds to the TCU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:5075% → 73%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
25.1%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kolby Listenbee for 9 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 1
OWN 30
0
23.9%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Josh DoctsonSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+4
24.6%
Aaron Green run for 4 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
24.8%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
25.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+1
26.6%
Trevone Boykin run for 1 yd to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
27.3%
Ethan Perry punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kans 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
27.9%
Tony Pierson run for 1 yd to the Kans 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 2:4727% → 47%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
27.2%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Jimmay Mundine for 10 yds to the Kans 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
29.2%
Tony Pierson run for no gain to the Kans 28Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+67
29.7%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Jimmay Mundine for 67 yds to the TCU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
33.8%
Corey Avery run for 4 yds to the TCU 1Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
34.4%
Corey Avery run for no gain to the TCU 1Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
46.6%
Michael Cummings run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 3:0156% → 70%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
44.5%
Aaron Green run for 9 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+13
43.5%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
50
+7
43.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 7 yds to the Kans 43Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 3
OPP 43
0
43.3%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Ty SlaninaSimilar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+3
44.4%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the Kans 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
44.8%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 14 yds to the Kans 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
44.1%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the Kans 24Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+21
44.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 21 yds to the Kans 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
30.4%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 15TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 0:1238% → 54%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
37.6%
KANSAS Penalty, False Start (Junior Visinia) to the Kans 22Similar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+78
54.1%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Nigel King for 78 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16FUMBLE
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:2658% → 56%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
57.6%
Michael Cummings pass incomplete to Rodriguez ColemanSimilar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
57.7%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Nigel King for 6 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 4
OPP 39
-10
58.6%
Michael Cummings sacked by Terrell Lathan for a loss of 10 yards to the TCU 49Similar
Q3 6:43
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
55.7%
Trevor Pardula punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:4742% → 65%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
57.9%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Kolby ListenbeeSimilar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-10
58.6%
TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TCU 10Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 20
OWN 10
0
59.4%
Trevone Boykin pass incomplete to Josh DoctsonSimilar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 20
OWN 10
+26
61.2%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 26 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
58.6%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 11 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
57.8%
Desmon White run for 11 yds to the Kans 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
58.4%
Trevone Boykin sacked by Greg Allen for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 43Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+19
60.3%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to Ty Slanina for 19 yds to the Kans 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
34.7%
Aaron Green run for 24 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 18PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3242% → 21%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
42.3%
Tony Pierson run for no gain to the Kans 12Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
42.3%
Michael Cummings pass incomplete to Jimmay MundineSimilar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
40.8%
Michael Cummings pass incomplete to Tony PiersonSimilar
Q3 2:38
4TH & 10
OWN 12
+69
21.4%
Trevor Pardula punt for 57 yds , Cameron Echols-Luper returns for 69 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 2:1424% → 23%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
24.0%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Nick Harwell for 5 yds to the Kans 31Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-5
24.6%
KANSAS Penalty, False Start (Larry Mazyck) to the Kans 26Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
24.1%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Jimmay Mundine for 9 yds to the Kans 35Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-12
26.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 12 yards to the Kans 23 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Kans Michael CummingsSimilar
Q3 0:04
4TH & 13
OWN 23
+11
22.8%
Trevor Pardula punt for 61 yds , Cameron Echols-Luper returns for 11 yds to the TCU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20FG
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:5378% → 84%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
21.7%
KANSAS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Andrew Bolton) to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
19.9%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 10 yds to the Kans 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
19.4%
Trevone Boykin run for 1 yd to the Kans 47Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+7
19.7%
Trevone Boykin pass complete to David Porter for 7 yds to the Kans 40Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+33
19.8%
Aaron Green run for 33 yds to the Kans 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
19.1%
Aaron Green run for 3 yds to the Kans 4Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
19.4%
Trevone Boykin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
20.2%
Trevone Boykin sacked by Michael Reynolds for a loss of 4 yards to the Kans 8Similar
Q4 12:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
16.4%
Jaden Oberkrom 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:4319% → 19%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.5%
De'Andre Mann run for 3 yds to the Kans 28Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
19.1%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Rodriguez Coleman for 17 yds to the Kans 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
21.5%
Tony Pierson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 44Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+1
19.1%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Jimmay Mundine for 1 yd to the Kans 45Similar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+5
18.6%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Nigel King for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:14
4TH & 5
50
0
19.3%
Trevor Pardula punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cameron Echols-Luper at the TCU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22FUMBLE
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
15.6%
Trevorris Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 10 Trevorris Johnson fumbled, forced by Victor Simmons, recovered by Kans Tedarian JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 23FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0325% → 32%
Q4 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
24.9%
Corey Avery run for 5 yds to the TCU 5Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
25.0%
Michael Cummings pass incomplete to Nigel KingSimilar
Q4 8:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
23.2%
Tony Pierson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 6Similar
Q4 7:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
31.9%
Matthew Wyman 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:1780% → 79%
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
20.0%
Aaron Green run for 7 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+1
18.8%
Aaron Green run for 1 yd to the TCU 44Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+6
19.1%
Aaron Green run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
50
+15
17.4%
Aaron Green run for 15 yds to the Kans 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
16.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the Kans 33Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-17
16.9%
Trevone Boykin sacked by Tedarian Johnson for a loss of 17 yards to the 50 yard line TCU Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Trevone Boykin) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 25
50
+10
18.6%
Trevone Boykin run for 10 yds to the Kans 40Similar
Q4 4:09
4TH & 15
OPP 40
0
20.6%
Ethan Perry punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Johnson at the Kans 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 25INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:2927% → 26%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+14
27.2%
Michael Cummings pass complete to Justin McCay for 14 yds to the Kans 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.8%
Michael Cummings pass incomplete to Jimmay MundineSimilar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
27.2%
Michael Cummings pass incomplete to Nigel KingSimilar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+28
25.6%
Michael Cummings pass intercepted Chris Hackett return for 28 yds to the Kans 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26END OF GAME
12 plays · -2 yds · 3:1787% → 96%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
13.0%
Aaron Green run for 7 yds to the Kans 16Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 3
OPP 16
0
10.9%
Aaron Green run for no gain to the Kans 16Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+2
11.4%
Aaron Green run for 2 yds to the Kans 14Similar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+2
13.1%
Trevone Boykin run for 2 yds to the Kans 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
6.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kans 15Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 13
OPP 15
-2
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 17Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 15
OPP 17
-5
4.6%
TCU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Kans 22Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 20
OPP 22
-3
3.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kans 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:48
Aaron Green run for 24 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)
-25.6
TD · Q3 8:47
Aaron Green run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jaden Oberkrom KICK)
-17.5
TD · Q3 8:27
Michael Cummings pass complete to Nigel King for 78 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wyman KICK)
+16.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com