2021 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2021 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
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Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:39 · Jalon Daniels sacked by Josaiah Stewart for a loss of 10 yards to the CCaro 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:36: Reese White run for 2 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +3.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:36: Jason Bean run for 34 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — KU win probability +3.3 pts (now 9%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:36: Jason Bean run for 46 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK) — KU win probability +7.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:37: Reese White run for 19 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +5.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:11: Reese White run for 3 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +3.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2KU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 10:07KU 4th & 7 at CCU 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.1% before the snapGo for it6.0%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call6.1%58% to makePunt5.7%−0.3average punt
- Q2 8:23KU 4th & 17 at KU 19, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snapGo for it8.9%−0.813% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.7%average punt
- Q2 6:52KU 4th & 3 at KU 32, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.9%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.9%average punt
- Q2 4:24KU 4th & 1 at KU 35, down 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.1%−0.4average punt
- Q2 0:25CCU 4th & 5 at CCU 22, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snapGo for it92.7%−0.740% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.3%average punt
- Q2 0:00KU 4th & 2 at CCU 45, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.8%57% to convertField goal6.9%−1.025% to makePunt7.5%−0.4average punt
- Q3 12:56CCU 4th & 3 at CCU 32, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snapGo for it93.6%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.7%average punt
- Q3 4:24KU 4th & 1 at CCU 28, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.7%71% to convertField goal6.5%−1.260% to makePunt3.8%−3.8average punt
- Q4 11:21KU 4th & 10 at CCU 15, down 20Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%−0.527% to convertField goal1.2%83% to makePunt-0.3%−1.5average punt
- Q4 0:39KU 4th & 9 at CCU 17, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−0.329% to convertField goal0.3%80% to makePunt0.0%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7KU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 8:13CCU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.8%97% to makeGo for two93.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:40KU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call9.1%97% to makeGo for two9.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:02CCU Touchdown, up 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.6%97% to makeGo for two90.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:23CCU Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.7%97% to makeGo for two92.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:36CCU Touchdown, up 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.5%97% to makeGo for two95.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:36KU Touchdown, down 13 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick6.6%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call6.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:36KU Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call12.1%97% to makeGo for two12.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:37CCU Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.9%97% to makeGo for two92.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:11CCU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:49CCU Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKUDrive 1FG10 plays · 36 yds · 4:445% → 6%
Q1 13:35
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+19
94.6%
Jason Bean pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 19 yds to the CCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
94.5%
Neal, Devin rush for loss of 2 yards to the COASTALCAR46, PENALTY KANSAS holding (Fairchild, Mason) 10 yards to the KANSAS46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+22
94.3%
Jason Bean run for 22 yds to the CCaro 32 Jason Bean fumbled, forced by Enock Makonzo, recovered by KansSimilar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+2
94.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Steven McBride for 2 yds to the CCaro 25Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 3
OPP 25
-4
93.9%
Jason Bean sacked by Teddy Gallagher for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4894% → 94%
KUDrive 3TD14 plays · 66 yds · 6:217% → 10%
Q1 7:19
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+15
93.5%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Kwamie Lassiter II for a 1ST down COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-2
93.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 48Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+35
92.9%
Jason Bean pass complete to Luke Grimm for 35 yds to the CCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
91.9%
Neal, Devin rush for 2 yards to the COASTALCAR1, PENALTY KANSAS illegal shift 5 yards to the COASTALCAR8, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4TD15 plays · 75 yds · 5:3491% → 91%
Q1 0:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
90.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 10 yds to the CCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+4
90.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 4 yds to the Kans 36Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+5
90.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 5 yds to the Kans 17Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+12
89.8%
McCall, Grayson pass incomplete to Likely, Isaiah, PENALTY KANSAS pass interference (Webb, Jeremy) 12 yards to the KANSAS2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COASTALCAR.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 5PUNT TD8 plays · 3 yds · 2:2710% → 7%
Q2 9:23
3RD & 9
OWN 27
-3
90.1%
Jason Bean sacked by Josaiah Stewart for a loss of 3 yards to the Kans 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:327% → 7%
CCUDrive 7FUMBLE3 plays · 44 yds · 1:0893% → 93%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
93.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 16 yds to the CCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+28
93.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 28 yds to the Kans 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
93.4%
Grayson McCall run for no gain to the Kans 26 Grayson McCall fumbled, forced by Malcolm Lee, recovered by Kans Kyron JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 1:098% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 9TD5 plays · 35 yds · 1:4293% → 97%
Q2 2:38
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+6
92.9%
McCall, Grayson pass incomplete to Brown, Kameron, PENALTY KANSAS pass interference (Bryant, Jacobee) 6 yards to the KANSAS2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COASTALCAR.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10TD5 plays · 65 yds · 0:545% → 9%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
94.9%
Jason Bean pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 22 yds to the CCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
94.4%
Jason Bean pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 9 yds to the CCaro 34Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+34
91.1%
Jason Bean run for 34 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 5 yds · 0:5993% → 94%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
92.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 6 yds to the CCaro 23Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 4
OWN 23
-4
92.6%
Shermari Jones run for 6 yds to the CCaro 29 COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sam Thompson) to the CCaro 19Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 5
OWN 22
+31
93.5%
Charles Ouverson punt for 41 yds, downed at the COASTALCAR 37 COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Kans 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12DOWNS4 plays · 6 yds · 0:188% → 8%
Q2 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 45
-2
91.9%
Jason Bean sacked by Jeffrey Gunter and Josaiah Stewart for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0094% → 93%
Q3 12:56
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
93.3%
Charles Ouverson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Kwamie Lassiter II at the Kans 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14TD3 plays · 65 yds · 1:127% → 15%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5588% → 94%
Q3 10:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+22
88.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 22 yds to the Kans 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
89.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 7 yds to the Kans 28Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+9
88.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Greg Latushko for 9 yds to the Kans 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16DOWNS9 plays · 47 yds · 4:087% → 8%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
93.3%
Jason Bean sacked by Jerrod Clark for a loss of 4 yards to the Kans 21Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+39
93.5%
Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 39 yds to the CCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 19
OPP 46
+13
93.1%
Jason Bean pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 13 yds to the CCaro 33Similar
Q3 4:29
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+5
92.6%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jacob Proche) to the CCaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17TD12 plays · 72 yds · 5:0594% → 99%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+19
94.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 19 yds to the CCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+14
94.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 14 yds to the Kans 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
95.7%
Grayson McCall sacked by Malcolm Lee and Kyron Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 18DOWNS10 plays · 58 yds · 2:421% → 1%
CCUDrive 19TD11 plays · 83 yds · 6:2799% → 100%
Q4 9:54
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+5
99.0%
KANSAS Penalty, Neutral Zone Infraction (Eddie Wilson) to the CCaro 23Similar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
99.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 10 yds to the CCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+18
99.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Xavier Gravette for 18 yds to the Kans 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+27
99.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 27 yds to the Kans 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 11 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 20DOWNS13 plays · 50 yds · 4:000% → 0%
Q4 3:56
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+18
99.9%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 18 yds to the Kans 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+15
100.0%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 15 yds to the CCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+16
99.9%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 16 yds to the CCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 9
OPP 17
-10
100.0%
Jalon Daniels sacked by Josaiah Stewart for a loss of 10 yards to the CCaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 21END OF GAME1 play · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:36
Jason Bean run for 46 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)
-7.8
TD · Q3 8:37
Reese White run for 19 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
+5.9
TD · Q2 2:36
Reese White run for 2 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
+3.7