2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreTTU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:47 · Reis Vernon punt for 28 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 4:25: Jacob Borcila 47 yd FG MISSED — KU win probability +1.4 pts (now 18%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 11:37: Jonathan Garibay 28 yd FG GOOD — KU win probability +1.0 pts (now 20%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 6:29: Jonathan Garibay 48 yd FG GOOD — KU win probability +1.4 pts (now 25%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:52: Miles Kendrick pass complete to Luke Grimm for 14 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK) — TTU win probability +1.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
- TD · Q4 0:05: Miles Kendrick pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 13 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK) — KU win probability +16.0 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TTU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 4:25KU 4th & 6 at TTU 30, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 16.0% before the snapGo for it16.0%40% to convertField goalTheir call16.0%−<0.156% to makePunt15.7%−0.3average punt
- Q2 11:37TTU 4th & 8 at KU 10, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.8% before the snapGo for it79.4%−0.228% to convertField goalTheir call79.6%88% to makePunt76.9%−2.7average punt
- Q2 10:18KU 4th & 8 at KU 27, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snapGo for it20.0%−0.533% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.4%average punt
- Q2 2:47KU 4th & 9 at KU 36, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snapGo for it22.1%−0.531% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.6%average punt
- Q3 11:17KU 4th & 10 at TTU 44, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snapGo for it25.9%−0.630% to convertField goal25.1%−1.427% to makePuntTheir call26.5%average punt
- Q3 4:12KU 4th & 5 at TTU 43, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.9%42% to convertField goal28.7%−2.228% to makePunt30.0%−0.9average punt
- Q4 11:38KU 4th & 17 at KU 38, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snapGo for it25.6%−3.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.0%average punt
- Q4 6:29TTU 4th & 13 at KU 30, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.7% before the snapGo for it71.0%−2.920% to convertField goalTheir call74.0%56% to makePunt70.4%−3.6average punt
- Q4 0:12KU 4th & 10 at TTU 35, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.5%30% to convertField goal11.0%−7.545% to makePunt11.7%−6.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 10:24TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.5%97% to makeGo for two85.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTTUDrive 1TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2787% → 86%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
13.1%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 17 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+21
13.5%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 21 yds to the Kans 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+15
13.9%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Myles Price for 15 yds to the Kans 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2FG13 plays · 45 yds · 5:5214% → 18%
TTUDrive 3INT7 plays · 29 yds · 3:0683% → 82%
KUDrive 4INT3 plays · 2 yds · 1:1219% → 19%
TTUDrive 5FG10 plays · 31 yds · 3:0582% → 80%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
18.5%
(14:10) Thompson,SaRodorick rush for 3 yards gain to the KAN27 (Potter,Gavin) PENALTY KAN Offside (Webb,Jeremy) 5 yards from KAN30 to KAN25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
18.6%
PENALTY TTU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting KAN UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+3
18.9%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 3 yds to the Kans 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1021% → 21%
Q2 10:33
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+4
20.5%
Jason Bean pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 4 yds to the Kans 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7TD10 plays · 55 yds · 4:3480% → 80%
Q2 9:24
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+13
21.3%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 13 yds to the Kans 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+3
20.2%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 3 yds to the Kans 37Similar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
19.8%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Myles Price for 5 yds to the Kans 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 2:3023% → 23%
Q2 3:36
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
25.6%
Jason Bean pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 3 yds to the Kans 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9TD9 plays · 64 yds · 2:0678% → 80%
KUDrive 10END OF HALF3 plays · 7 yds · 0:1525% → 26%
KUDrive 11PUNT10 plays · 31 yds · 3:3425% → 27%
Q3 14:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
25.8%
Jason Bean pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 10 yds Kwamie Lassiter II fumbled, forced by Colin Schooler, recovered by Kans Kwamie Lassiter II for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+5
28.1%
Jason Bean pass complete to Steven McBride for 5 yds to the Kans 45Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+11
27.9%
Jason Bean pass complete to Luke Grimm for 11 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
26.5%
Reis Vernon punt for 36 yds, fair catch by McLane Mannix at the TexTc 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12TD12 plays · 92 yds · 4:2074% → 77%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
26.5%
(11:17) PENALTY KAN Offside (Webb,Jeremy) 5 yards from TTU08 to TTU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+1
26.4%
Henry Colombi pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for 1 yd to the TexTc 14Similar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+7
27.7%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 7 yds to the TexTc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+20
26.8%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 20 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+25
24.3%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Mason Tharp for 25 yds to the Kans 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
22.9%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Mason Tharp for 3 yds to the Kans 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 13DOWNS7 plays · 32 yds · 2:2128% → 30%
TTUDrive 14TD6 plays · 57 yds · 2:0676% → 77%
KUDrive 15PUNT15 plays · 13 yds · 5:1130% → 32%
Q3 0:34
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
30.2%
Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 4 yds to the Kans 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-10
33.4%
(12:58) Bean,Jason pass complete to Fairchild,Mason for 20 yards to the TTU35 (Monroe,Eric) PENALTY KAN Holding (Cabeldue,Bryce) 10 yards from KAN45 to KAN35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 20
OWN 35
-5
31.2%
PENALTY KAN False Start (Ford Jr.,Michael) 5 yards from KAN35 to KAN30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 17
OWN 38
+13
31.6%
Reis Vernon punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 38 , McLane Mannix returns for 13 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16FG10 plays · 32 yds · 4:5975% → 75%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
25.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 8 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 14
OPP 31
+6
21.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 6 yds to the Kans 25Similar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 8
OPP 25
-5
23.3%
PENALTY TTU False Start (Drew,Devin) 5 yards from KAN25 to KAN30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17TD11 plays · 75 yds · 5:1934% → 38%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
32.8%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Tristan Golightly for 9 yds to the Kans 46Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+12
36.4%
Amauri Pesek-Hickson run for 12 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+12
39.2%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Amauri Pesek-Hickson for 12 yds to the TexTc 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
38.0%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Luke Grimm for 14 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18FUMBLE2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
6.6%
Nehemiah Martinez run for 10 yds to the TexTc 35 Nehemiah Martinez fumbled, forced by Ra'Mello Dotson, recovered by Kans Edwin White-SchultzSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19TD6 plays · 35 yds · 0:3331% → 34%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
34.4%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 13 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20END OF GAME2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:05
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 13 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)
+16
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-6.5
FG · Q1 4:25
Jacob Borcila 47 yd FG MISSED
+1.4