2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreKSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:49 · Jacob Borcila 40 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:36: Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +1.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
- FG · Q1 2:49: Jacob Borcila 40 yd FG GOOD — KU win probability +0.9 pts (now 12%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q1 1:57: Skylar Thompson pass complete to Malik Knowles for 68 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 7:28: Chris Tennant 24 yd FG MISSED — KSU win probability +1.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:02: Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 15 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK) — KSU win probability +1.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10KSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 12:50KU 4th & 1 at KU 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt8.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:18KU 4th & 5 at KU 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snapGo for it9.3%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.3%average punt
- Q1 2:49KU 4th & 8 at KSU 23, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.1% before the snapGo for it10.9%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call11.0%70% to makePunt9.8%−1.2average punt
- Q2 11:04KU 4th & 5 at KSU 22, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.4% before the snapGo for it11.2%−<0.140% to convertField goalTheir call11.2%72% to makePunt9.6%−1.6average punt
- Q2 8:03KSU 4th & 2 at midfield, up 8Close callPunted · 88.1% before the snapGo for it88.2%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.7%−0.5average punt
- Q2 6:57KU 4th & 8 at KU 34, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snapGo for it11.5%−0.634% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.1%average punt
- Q2 0:15KU 4th & 9 at KU 36, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snapGo for it12.5%−0.631% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.0%average punt
- Q3 12:54KU 4th & 3 at KU 27, down 8Close callPunted · 13.8% before the snapGo for it14.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.1%−0.3average punt
- Q3 7:28KSU 4th & 6 at KU 6, up 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.5% before the snapGo for it85.0%−0.231% to convertField goalTheir call85.2%91% to makePunt80.2%−4.9average punt
- Q3 3:02KU 4th & 4 at KSU 15, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.5%46% to convertField goal13.4%−0.183% to makePunt9.0%−4.5average punt
- Q4 7:01KU 4th & 6 at KSU 17, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.6%38% to convertField goal9.9%−0.680% to makePunt6.4%−4.2average punt
- Q4 2:24KSU 4th & 16 at KSU 17, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snapGo for it92.8%−1.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.9%average punt
- Q4 1:03KU 4th & 9 at KSU 21, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.8%30% to convertField goal4.9%−0.974% to makePunt4.4%−1.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 5:36KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.6%97% to makeGo for two89.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:57KSU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.0%97% to makeGo for two90.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKUDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 15 yds · 4:327% → 9%
Q1 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
7.3%
Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 7 yds to the Kans 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2TD9 plays · 72 yds · 4:3391% → 91%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
9.1%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 9 yds to the Kans 43Similar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
9.4%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Jax Dineen for 2 yds to the Kans 15Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 12
OPP 15
+11
9.7%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Malik Knowles for 11 yds to the Kans 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3FG7 plays · 54 yds · 2:2810% → 12%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
9.6%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 7 yds to the Kans 30Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+45
10.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 45 yds to the KanSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
10.8%
Jason Bean pass complete to Torry Locklin for 3 yds to the KanSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4TD3 plays · 70 yds · 0:4289% → 90%
KUDrive 5FG15 plays · 53 yds · 5:3710% → 12%
Q1 1:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+17
9.9%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 17 yds to the Kans 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:58
3RD & 2
OPP 46
-5
10.6%
(14:56) PENALTY KAN False Start (Kardell,Trevor) 5 yards from KSU46 to KAN49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-5
10.3%
(14:55) PENALTY KAN False Start (Lassiter II,Kwamie) 5 yards from KAN49 to KAN44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+15
10.1%
(14:56) Bean,Jason pass incomplete to Wilson,Trevor PENALTY KSU Roughing The Passer (Fletcher,Cody) 15 yards from KAN44 to KSU41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 28 yds · 2:5788% → 88%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
11.2%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Skylar Thompson) to the KanSt 22Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 30
OWN 22
+15
12.1%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Malik Knowles for 15 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 15
OWN 37
+13
12.4%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Kade Warner for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5212% → 12%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
12.1%
Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 2 yds to the Kans 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8TD8 plays · 79 yds · 3:5588% → 88%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
12.3%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Keenan Garber for 6 yds to the KanSt 27Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+19
12.1%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 19 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+23
12.0%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 23 yds to the Kans 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9PUNT10 plays · 11 yds · 2:2513% → 13%
Q2 0:37
2ND & 12
OWN 33
-4
13.8%
Jalon Daniels sacked by Felix Anudike-Uzomah for a loss of 4 yards to the Kans 29 Jalon Daniels fumbled, recovered by Kans Earl Bostick Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+22
13.2%
Reis Vernon punt for 42 yds , Phillip Brooks returns for 22 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10END OF HALF3 plays · 18 yds · 0:0288% → 88%
KSUDrive 11TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1587% → 87%
KUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3714% → 13%
Q3 14:31
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
13.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 1 yd to the Kans 19Similar
Q3 14:31
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+8
13.2%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Devin Neal for 8 yds to the Kans 27Similar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+28
13.4%
Reis Vernon punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 43 , Phillip Brooks returns for 28 yds to the KanSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13FG12 plays · 51 yds · 5:2688% → 88%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
12.4%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Sammy Wheeler for 2 yds to the Kans 43Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+17
12.9%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Landry Weber for 17 yds to the Kans 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+10
12.9%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Daniel Green for 10 yds to the Kans 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
12.5%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 4 yds to the Kans 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14TD8 plays · 80 yds · 4:1513% → 15%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
13.9%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+24
15.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 24 yds to the KanSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+15
14.5%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 15 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15TD15 plays · 75 yds · 7:0887% → 92%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
12.9%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 6 yds to the KanSt 31Similar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
13.0%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Kade Warner for 4 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+5
11.0%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 5 yds to the Kans 47Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+19
11.1%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Kade Warner for 19 yds to the Kans 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
9.9%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Joe Ervin for 12 yds to the Kans 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+8
9.4%
Skylar Thompson run for 1 yd to the Kans 14 for a 1ST down KANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Gavin Potter) to the Kans 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
9.4%
PENALTY KAN UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Logan Jr.,Kenny) 4 yards from KAN07 to KAN03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16DOWNS12 plays · 63 yds · 3:3610% → 11%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
11.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 11 yds to the Kans 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
12.0%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 4 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
12.9%
(08:58) Neal,Devin rush for 3 yards gain to the KSU37 (Green,Daniel) PENALTY KSU Offside (Matlack,Nate) 5 yards from KSU40 to KSU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+15
12.9%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the KanSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
14.1%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 4 yds to the KanSt 17Similar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+5
11.1%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Devin Neal for 5 yds to the KanSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 5 yds · 4:3792% → 96%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
7.8%
Howard,Will pass complete to Travis,Jaelon for 6 yards to the KSU18 (Dotson,Ra'Mello) PENALTY KSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from KSU12 to KSU07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+11
6.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 11 yds to the KanSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+2
6.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Keenan Garber for 2 yds to the KanSt 27Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 6
OWN 27
-10
5.8%
(03:25) Howard,Will rush for 20 yards gain to the KSU47, End Of Play PENALTY KSU Holding (Long,Logan) 10 yards from KSU27 to KSU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 16
OWN 17
+26
3.9%
Ty Zentner punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 35 , Kwamie Lassiter II returns for 26 yds to the KanSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 18DOWNS8 plays · 14 yds · 1:168% → 4%
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
7.2%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 6 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+7
6.3%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 7 yds to the KanSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+1
6.0%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Amauri Pesek-Hickson for 1 yd to the KanSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-2.6
TD · Q1 1:57
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Malik Knowles for 68 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK)
-1.6
TD · Q1 5:36
Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK)
-1.1