Clemson

Profile vs. FBS, 2015

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2391st
  Defense−0.0594th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense49.8%93rd
  Defense34.0%98th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1217th
  Defense+1.386th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1373rd
  Defense−0.0280th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3794th
  Defense−0.0697th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense53.2%87th
  Defense37.2%98th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense40.7%91st
  Defense29.0%81st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.2392nd
  Defense2.2198th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense16.2%87th
  Defense28.7%98th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.0%48th
  Defense2.3%67th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2015

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Clemson allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   WOF
2. W
   APP
3. W
   LOU
4. W
   ND
5. W
   GT
6. W
   BC
7. W
   MIA
8. W
   NCSU
9. W
   FSU
10. W
    SYR
11. W
    WAKE
12. W
    SC
13. W
    UNC
14. W
    OU
15. L
    ALA

Bars above the line: better than expected for Clemson.

Players, 2015

1. Deshaun WatsonQB556 plays · +0.397 pts/play · 1st of 205 QBs
   4.13WAR3.29 to 4.98
2. Wayne GallmanRB245 plays · +0.129 pts/play · 11th of 333 RBs
   0.59WAR0.41 to 0.76
3. Greg HuegelPK22 plays · +0.460 pts/play · 13th of 115 kickers
   0.19WAR0.13 to 0.25
4. Charone PeakeWR58 plays · +0.118 pts/play · 153rd of 411 WRs
   0.13WAR0.06 to 0.19
5. Artavis ScottWR97 plays · +0.066 pts/play · 167th of 411 WRs
   0.12WAR−0.03 to 0.26
6. Hunter RenfrowWR40 plays · +0.125 pts/play · 225th of 411 WRs
   0.09WAR0.04 to 0.14
7. Germone HopperWR23 plays · +0.101 pts/play · 335th of 411 WRs
   0.04WAR0.01 to 0.08
8. Andy TeasdallP47 plays · +0.041 pts/play · 76th of 92 punters
   0.04WAR−0.02 to 0.09

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Clemson's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2015

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  80880813th of 128Roster talent: 808, 13th of 128 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  25925911th of 128Recruiting: 259, 11th of 128 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  86%86%19th of 127Returning production: 86%, 19th of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +24.0+24.04th of 128SP+ rating: +24.0, 4th of 128 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 128 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2015

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Clemson's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 9 clear-cut ones account for 0.19 of the 0.26 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at LOUQ4 1:12 4th & 1 at CLEM 30, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−4.8 pts
2. at SYRQ4 6:58 4th & 1 at SYR 25, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.6 pts
3. vs OUQ3 1:12 4th & 1 at CLEM 38, up 13Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
4. at LOUQ4 9:57 4th & 2 at LOU 10, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
5. at SCQ4 2:59 4th & 2 at SC 41, up 9Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
6. vs UNCQ2 4:56 4th & 15 at CLEM 30, up 5Went for it; the numbers favored punting−1.7 pts
7. vs NDQ2 11:45 4th & 1 at CLEM 37, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
8. at LOUQ2 2:37 4th & 4 at LOU 43, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2015

7th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Clemson's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   WOF
2. W

   APP
3. W

   LOU
4. W

   ND
5. W

   GT
6. W

   BC
7. W

   MIA
8. W

   NCSU
9. W

   FSU
10. W

    SYR
11. W

    WAKE
12. W

    SC
13. W

    UNC
14. W

    OU
15. L

    ALA

What moved it, 2015

Every game starts at Clemson's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+3.11
• Possession & field position+0.03
• Clock+0.04
• Timeouts+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.90

Game by game

• WOFW 49-10 vs WOF78% → 100%Before kickoff +28 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +24
• APPW 41-10 vs APP93% → 100%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +10
• LOUW 20-17 at LOU70% → 85%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +33, Clock +3
• NDW 24-22 vs ND62% → 95%Before kickoff +12 · On the field +33: Scoreboard +33
• GTW 43-24 vs GT77% → 98%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +21: Scoreboard +26
• BCW 34-17 vs BC90% → 99%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +15, Timeouts +1
• MIAW 58-0 at MIA63% → 100%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +41, Clock +2
• NCSUW 56-41 at NCSU76% → 99%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +33, Clock +2
• FSUW 23-13 vs FSU82% → 97%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +21, Timeouts +1
• SYRW 37-27 at SYR96% → 98%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +11, Clock +1
• WAKEW 33-13 vs WAKE97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +6
• SCW 37-32 at SC89% → 90%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +22, Clock +2
• UNCW 45-37 vs UNC70% → 98%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +29, Timeouts +2
• OUW 37-17 vs OU47% → 100%Before kickoff −3 · On the field +52: Scoreboard +52, Timeouts −2
• ALAL 40-45 vs ALA41% → 3%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −38: Scoreboard −45, Clock −2

Points of win probability, from Clemson's side.

Closest call

CLEM 38-35 UK (2023) - Clemson dropped to a 1.0% win probability before pulling it out.