2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreWAKE score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:45 · Andy Teasdall punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tabari Hines at the Clem 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:36: Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 44 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:44: Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 11 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel PAT BLOCKED) — CLEM win probability +0.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:26: Kendall Hinton run for 8 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +2.4 pts (now 5%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:12: Deshaun Watson pass complete to Germone Hopper for 47 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK) — CLEM win probability +2.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q3 0:46: Greg Huegel 36 yd FG GOOD — CLEM win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6WAKE made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
- Q1 12:43WAKE 4th & 16 at WAKE 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snapGo for it4.3%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.5%average punt
- Q1 7:46WAKE 4th & 14 at WAKE 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snapGo for it4.8%−0.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.0%average punt
- Q1 6:45CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 7, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snapGo for it94.7%−<0.145% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.7%average punt
- Q1 2:54WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 29, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.7%−0.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%average punt
- Q2 13:22WAKE 4th & 2 at WAKE 33, down 20Close callPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it3.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 12:30CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 29, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snapGo for it96.5%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.6%average punt
- Q2 6:47WAKE 4th & 10 at CLEM 49, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.6%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q2 0:31WAKE 4th & 14 at WAKE 44, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.318% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q3 12:02CLEM 4th & 9 at WAKE 45, up 23Close callWent for it · 97.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.9%−0.132% to convertField goal97.7%−0.225% to makePunt97.9%average punt
- Q3 10:03WAKE 4th & 12 at CLEM 49, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q3 7:44CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 28, up 23Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snapGo for it98.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 6:08WAKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 26, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.322% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q3 0:46CLEM 4th & 9 at WAKE 19, up 23Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.8%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call98.9%77% to makePunt98.2%−0.7average punt
- Q4 14:55WAKE 4th & 9 at WAKE 23, down 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 14:38WAKE 4th & 9 at WAKE 23, down 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 12:57WAKE 4th & 14 at CLEM 42, down 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.119% to convertField goal0.2%−<0.130% to makePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 8:36CLEM 4th & 3 at WAKE 40, up 26Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%52% to convertField goal99.6%−0.134% to makePunt99.6%−0.1average punt
- Q4 3:34WAKE 4th & 9 at CLEM 31, down 20Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%−0.432% to convertField goal1.0%54% to makePunt0.6%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WAKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 10:10CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.3%97% to makeGo for two95.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:36CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.3%97% to makeGo for two95.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:44CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:26WAKE Touchdown, down 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.0%97% to makeGo for two6.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:12CLEM Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.4%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:28WAKE Touchdown, down 20 before the tryClose callKicked · missedKickTheir call1.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two1.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWAKEDrive 1PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 2:023% → 3%
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Tyler Bell for 6 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
97.1%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (Dylan Intemann) to the WFrst 26Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-7
97.1%
John Wolford sacked by Ben Boulware for a loss of 7 yards to the WFrst 19Similar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
97.0%
Alexander Kinal punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Clem 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2TD9 plays · 63 yds · 2:2097% → 97%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
97.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 6 yds to the Clem 43Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+6
96.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 6 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
96.9%
CLEMSON Penalty, Substitution Infraction (Garrett Williams) to the Clem 44Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 13
OWN 46
+16
96.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 16 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+35
96.7%
Deon Cain pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 35 yds to the WFrst 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 1:593% → 4%
CLEMDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5197% → 96%
Q1 6:45
4TH & 4
OWN 7
0
96.3%
Andy Teasdall punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tabari Hines at the Clem 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5FUMBLE2 plays · -4 yds · 0:264% → 4%
CLEMDrive 6TD2 plays · 47 yds · 0:1996% → 97%
WAKEDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 2:263% → 3%
CLEMDrive 8TD5 plays · 76 yds · 1:5897% → 98%
Q1 2:11
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+5
96.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 5 yds to the Clem 31Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+63
96.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Germone Hopper for 63 yds to the WFrst 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
97.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 11 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:382% → 2%
CLEMDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4298% → 98%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
97.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for no gain to the Clem 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11INT8 plays · 39 yds · 3:202% → 2%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
97.7%
John Wolford sacked by Christian Wilkins for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 19Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-5
97.8%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (Ryan Anderson) to the WFrst 14Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+18
97.8%
John Wolford pass complete to K.J. Brent for 18 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
97.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 5 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+19
97.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 4 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Roughing Passer (Shaq Lawson) to the Clem 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
97.7%
Cam Serigne pass intercepted Cordrea Tankersley return for 5 yds to the Clem 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12INT2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
WAKEDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:132% → 2%
Q2 6:47
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
97.8%
Alexander Kinal punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Germone Hopper at the Clem 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14INT2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0898% → 98%
WAKEDrive 15TD2 plays · 11 yds · 0:193% → 5%
CLEMDrive 16TD8 plays · 74 yds · 3:0396% → 98%
Q2 3:59
2ND & 11
OWN 38
-3
96.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 35Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+16
95.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 16 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+47
98.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Germone Hopper for 47 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 16 yds · 1:292% → 2%
Q2 1:45
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+14
97.7%
John Wolford pass complete to K.J. Brent for 14 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
97.6%
John Wolford pass complete to K.J. Brent for 8 yds to the Clem 44Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-12
97.5%
John Wolford sacked by Jalen Williams for a loss of 12 yards to the WFrst 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18END OF HALF7 plays · 51 yds · 0:2899% → 99%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
98.7%
Deshaun Watson run for 2 yds to the Clem 28 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, Personal Foul (Shelldon Lewinson) to the Clem 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
98.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to C.J. Fuller for 11 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
98.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 12 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+11
98.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 11 yds to the WFrst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19DOWNS11 plays · 32 yds · 2:4398% → 98%
Q3 14:22
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+18
98.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 18 yds to the Clem 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
98.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 5 yds to the Clem 48Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+6
98.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 6 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+2
98.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 2 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 9
OPP 45
-1
98.3%
Andy Teasdall pass complete to Jadar Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 5 yds · 1:572% → 2%
Q3 11:30
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+20
98.2%
John Wolford pass complete to K.J. Brent for 20 yds to the Clem 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 10
OPP 47
-2
98.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 49Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
98.3%
Alexander Kinal punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Germone Hopper at the Clem 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:1699% → 98%
Q3 9:45
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+10
98.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Germone Hopper for 10 yds to the Clem 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 9
OWN 22
-5
98.5%
CLEMSON Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Clem 17Similar
Q3 7:44
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
98.3%
Andy Teasdall punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tabari Hines at the WFrst 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:172% → 1%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-8
98.4%
John Wolford sacked by Kevin Dodd for a loss of 8 yards to the WFrst 20Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 18
OWN 20
+6
98.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 6 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q3 6:08
4TH & 12
OWN 26
0
98.6%
Alexander Kinal punt for 49 yds , Germone Hopper returns for no gain to the Clem 26 CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Clem 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23FG12 plays · 66 yds · 4:5999% → 100%
Q3 5:30
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+5
98.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 5 yds to the Clem 22Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+10
98.8%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Clem 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
50
+4
99.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Stanton Seckinger for 4 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to C.J. Fuller for no gain to the WFrst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24FUMBLE6 plays · 1 yds · 0:220% → 0%
Q4 14:55
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
99.8%
Alexander Kinal punt for 39 yds , Germone Hopper returns for no gain to the Clem 38 Germone Hopper fumbled, recovered by WFrst Teddy MatthewsSimilar
Q4 14:38
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
99.8%
Alexander Kinal punt for 39 yds , Germone Hopper returns for no gain to the Clem 38 Germone Hopper fumbled, recovered by WFrst Teddy MatthewsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 25PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:330% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 26DOWNS11 plays · 60 yds · 3:54100% → 100%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
99.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 13 yds to the Clem 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 27TD7 plays · 61 yds · 2:320% → 1%
Q4 7:36
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-5
99.9%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Tyler Bell for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 39Similar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
99.9%
CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Clem 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+30
99.4%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 30 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 28INT2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 29DOWNS4 plays · 0 yds · 1:111% → 1%
CLEMDrive 30END OF GAME9 plays · 51 yds · 3:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:30
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+10
99.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to C.J. Fuller for 10 yds to the Clem 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+6
99.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Bianchi for 6 yds to the WFrst 48Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+23
99.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to C.J. Fuller for 23 yds to the WFrst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:26
Kendall Hinton run for 8 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)
-2.4
TD · Q2 2:12
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Germone Hopper for 47 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)
+2.3
TD · Q1 0:44
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 11 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel PAT BLOCKED)
+0.9