Try the model
ALA

Alabama 45 at Clemson 40

CLEM
2015 · CFP National Championship Game · Jan 11, 2016 · State Farm Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:45 · Andy Teasdall punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 86Home team on offense+1.1Pregame prior−4.5Garbage-time factor−0.6Score differential−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:53: Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 53 yds for a TD (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +13.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:48: Wayne Gallman run for 1 yd for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +15.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:45: Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 51 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +26.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:31: Greg Huegel kickoff for 60 yds , Kenyan Drake return for 95 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +26.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:40: Artavis Scott 15 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — CLEM win probability +20.6 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ALA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 10:59ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:50CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:17ALA 4th & 8 at CLEM 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:31ALA 4th & 17 at ALA 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:55CLEM 4th & 2 at CLEM 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:25ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:45CLEM 4th & 23 at CLEM 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−2.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:37ALA 4th & 13 at ALA 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−3.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:46CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:10CLEM 4th & 9 at ALA 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−9.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:26ALA 4th & 11 at ALA 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−3.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:44ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−1.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:43CLEM 4th & 19 at CLEM 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−6.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:48ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:07CLEM 4th & 10 at ALA 40, up 3
    Close callPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    62.8%−0.8
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:34ALA 4th & 8 at CLEM 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−3.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−14.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:47CLEM 4th & 7 at ALA 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−2.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−13.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 7:55ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:18CLEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:00CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:35ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:53ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:48CLEM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:45ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:31ALA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:40CLEM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    22.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:07ALA Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.5
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:12CLEM Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.4 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.7%−1.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 26 yds · 3:4358% → 57%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
41.6%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for no gain to the Alab 21Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
41.7%
CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Shaq Lawson) to the Alab 26Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+4
41.8%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+4
41.9%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
42.0%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+1
42.0%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 35Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+9
42.2%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 9 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
42.1%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
42.2%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for no gain to the Alab 47Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
42.4%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
42.7%
JK Scott punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Artavis Scott at the Clem 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 1:5843% → 43%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
42.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 4 yds to the Clem 13Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+7
42.8%
Wayne Gallman run for 7 yds to the Clem 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
42.9%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Artavis ScottSimilar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
42.9%
Wayne Gallman run for no gain to the Clem 20Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+13
42.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 13 yds to the Clem 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
43.4%
Wayne Gallman run for 2 yds to the Clem 35Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
43.4%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Wayne GallmanSimilar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
43.2%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Ray-Ray McCloudSimilar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 8
OWN 35
+12
42.9%
Andy Teasdall punt for 36 yds , Cyrus Jones returns for 12 yds to the Alab 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
3 plays · 59 yds · 0:4957% → 60%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
42.7%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
42.9%
Derrick Henry run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 1
50
+50
40.2%
Derrick Henry run for 50 yds for a TD (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:1742% → 46%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
41.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 5 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
41.7%
Wayne Gallman run for no gain to the Alab 49Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+6
41.6%
Watson, Deshaun pass incomplete to Leggett, Jordan, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Foster, Reuben) 6 yards to the ALABAMA43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
41.8%
Deshaun Watson run for 5 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+1
41.8%
Wayne Gallman run for 1 yd to the Alab 37Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+6
41.7%
Deshaun Watson run for 6 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
45.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 31 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5MISSED FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 2:4356% → 56%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
43.6%
Derrick Henry run for 7 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
43.4%
Derrick Henry run for no gain to the Alab 46Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+25
43.6%
Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 25 yds to the Clem 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-6
43.0%
Jake Coker sacked by Shaq Lawson for a loss of 6 yards to the Clem 35Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 16
OPP 35
0
44.0%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 16
OPP 35
+8
44.7%
Derrick Henry run for 8 yds to the Clem 27Similar
Q1 2:17
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+44
44.4%
Adam Griffith 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:0946% → 53%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
46.2%
Deshaun Watson run for 11 yds to the Clem 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
46.8%
Wayne Gallman run for 6 yds to the Clem 44Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+24
47.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 24 yds to the Alab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
48.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 20 yds to the Alab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
48.8%
Deshaun Watson run for 1 yd to the Alab 11Similar
Q1 0:06
2ND & 9
OPP 11
0
49.0%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Hunter RenfrowSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+11
53.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 11 yds for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:2148% → 46%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
52.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to Richard Mullaney for 29 yds to the Clem 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
50.5%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 14
50
-4
52.1%
Jake Coker sacked by Kevin Dodd for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 46Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 18
OWN 46
+1
53.4%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 1 yd to the Alab 47Similar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 17
OWN 47
0
54.4%
JK Scott punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Artavis Scott at the Clem 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8INT
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:1754% → 55%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
54.3%
Deshaun Watson run for 7 yds to the Clem 24Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 3
OWN 24
0
54.7%
Deshaun Watson pass intercepted Eddie Jackson return for no gain to the Clem 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:1548% → 56%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
52.2%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for a loss of 8 yards to the Clem 50 lat. to Kenyan Drake for 14 yds to the Clem 36Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+24
52.5%
Derrick Henry run for 12 yds to the Clem 24 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Face Mask (12 yards) (B.J. Goodson) to the Clem 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
52.8%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Clem 9Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
53.1%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+7
54.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 7 yds to the Clem 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
53.4%
Kenyan Drake run for 1 yd to the Clem 1Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.0%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd for a TD (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3449% → 49%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
49.4%
Deshaun Watson run for 4 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
49.8%
Deshaun Watson run for 2 yds to the Clem 31Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
49.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 2 yds to the Clem 33Similar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
49.0%
Andy Teasdall punt for 57 yds, downed at the Alab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:2353% → 51%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
47.0%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 13Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+6
47.2%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+3
47.4%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
46.9%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 5
OWN 27
-5
46.5%
Jake Coker sacked by Shaq Lawson for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 22Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+8
48.2%
Jake Coker run for 8 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
48.6%
JK Scott punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Artavis Scott at the Clem 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 12 yds · 2:2551% → 49%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
51.0%
Zac Brooks run for 4 yds to the Clem 22Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+9
51.5%
Deshaun Watson run for 9 yds to the Clem 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
51.6%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Hunter RenfrowSimilar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+12
51.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 12 yds to the Clem 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
53.4%
Watson, Deshaun pass complete to Brooks, Zac for 12 yards to the Alab 45, Penalty CLEMSON ineligible downfield on pass (Gore, Joe) 5 yards to the Clem 38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 15
OWN 38
-5
51.7%
Wayne Gallman run for a loss of 5 yards to the Clem 33Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 20
OWN 33
-3
51.2%
Wayne Gallman run for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 30Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 23
OWN 30
0
49.6%
Deshaun Watson run for no gain to the Clem 30Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 23
OWN 30
0
48.7%
Andy Teasdall punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0353% → 50%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-9
47.3%
Jake Coker sacked by Kevin Dodd for a loss of 9 yards to the Alab 15Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 19
OWN 15
+1
47.3%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 16Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 18
OWN 16
+5
49.5%
Jake Coker pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 5 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 13
OWN 21
0
50.3%
JK Scott punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Artavis Scott at the Clem 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14MISSED FG
6 plays · 40 yds · 0:2552% → 54%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+27
51.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 27 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
54.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Zac Brooks for 2 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+11
54.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Zac Brooks for 11 yds to the Alab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+44
54.4%
Greg Huegel 44 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by D.J. PettwaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
46.8%
Derrick Henry run for 12 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5951% → 49%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
50.5%
Wayne Gallman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 21Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+9
50.2%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 9 yds to the Clem 30Similar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
49.8%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Charone PeakeSimilar
Q3 13:46
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
49.0%
Andy Teasdall punt for 34 yds, downed at the Alab 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 0:4254% → 69%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
45.7%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+7
44.3%
Jake Coker pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 7 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
31.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 53 yds for a TD (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 2:3435% → 43%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
34.5%
Artavis Scott run for 9 yds to the Clem 34Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
36.5%
Wayne Gallman run for 4 yds to the Clem 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
35.5%
Wayne Gallman run for no gain to the Clem 38Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+22
35.2%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Zac Brooks for 22 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
37.9%
Deshaun Watson run for 4 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+15
37.9%
Watson, Deshaun pass incomplete to Renfrow, Hunter, Penalty ALABAMA pass interference (Fitzpatrick, Minkah) 15 yards to the Alab 21, NO PLAY, 1ST down CLEMSON.Similar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
39.3%
Deshaun Watson run for 1 yd to the Alab 20Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
39.3%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Germone Hopper, broken up by Minkah FitzpatrickSimilar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
37.5%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Artavis Scott, broken up by Ronnie HarrisonSimilar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+37
43.2%
Greg Huegel 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3459% → 56%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-7
40.7%
Jake Coker sacked by Kevin Dodd for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 19 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dominick Jackson) declinedSimilar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 17
OWN 19
+2
41.3%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 15
OWN 21
+4
42.5%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Alab 25 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dominick Jackson) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:26
4TH & 11
OWN 25
+13
43.6%
JK Scott punt for 48 yds , Artavis Scott returns for 13 yds to the Clem 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20TD
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:2945% → 62%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
44.8%
Deshaun Watson run for 20 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
46.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 11 yds to the Alab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
47.2%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Hunter Renfrow, broken up by Minkah FitzpatrickSimilar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-5
47.0%
CLEMSON Penalty, False Start (Ray-Ray McCloud) to the Alab 34Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+16
44.6%
Deshaun Watson run for 16 yds to the Alab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
47.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 4 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+8
47.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 8 yds to the Alab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
46.9%
Deshaun Watson run for 5 yds to the Alab 1Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
47.0%
Wayne Gallman run for no gain to the Alab 1Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.3%
Wayne Gallman run for 1 yd for a TD (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:5144% → 39%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
56.4%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 20Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+16
58.0%
Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 16 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
55.9%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 37Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
57.6%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
59.3%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Richard MullaneySimilar
Q3 2:44
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+9
61.3%
JK Scott punt for 34 yds , Artavis Scott returns for 9 yds to the Clem 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:5562% → 58%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
61.6%
Ray-Ray McCloud run for 4 yds to the Clem 42Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
62.8%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Hunter RenfrowSimilar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+10
60.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 10 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
64.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 2 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
64.4%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Zac BrooksSimilar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-11
62.8%
Deshaun Watson sacked by Rashaan Evans for a loss of 11 yards to the Clem 43Similar
Q3 0:43
4TH & 19
OWN 43
0
57.7%
Andy Teasdall punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4439% → 36%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
60.9%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Alab 10Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+2
61.0%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Alab 12Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 12
0
62.5%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 3
OWN 12
0
63.6%
JK Scott punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Artavis Scott at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:3469% → 65%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
50
+10
68.7%
Artavis Scott run for 10 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
69.4%
Deshaun Watson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 42 Deshaun Watson fumbled, recovered by Clem Deshaun WatsonSimilar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+2
68.0%
Deshaun Watson run for 2 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
68.0%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Artavis Scott, broken up by Marlon HumphreySimilar
Q4 13:07
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
64.6%
Andy Teasdall punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25FG
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:2338% → 53%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
62.3%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 25 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
58.1%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 46Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-2
58.7%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 44Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+38
62.1%
Jake Coker pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 38 yds to the Clem 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
54.2%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Clem 16Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
54.3%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to Calvin Ridley, broken up by Adrian BakerSimilar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
56.7%
Jake Coker pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+33
46.8%
Adam Griffith 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 0:4557% → 83%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
50
-1
43.2%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 49Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+51
16.8%
Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 51 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 27FG
7 plays · 61 yds · 1:5124% → 38%
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
24.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 24 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+34
28.1%
Wayne Gallman run for 34 yds to the Alab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-3
31.2%
Deshaun Watson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 20Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 13
OPP 20
+6
30.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 6 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
28.3%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Jordan LeggettSimilar
Q4 7:47
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
38.1%
Greg Huegel 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 29TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3512% → 33%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
11.5%
Deshaun Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 24Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+14
10.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 14 yds to the Clem 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
10.2%
Deshaun Watson sacked by Rashaan Evans for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 35Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+39
8.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 39 yds to the Alab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
13.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 7 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 3
OPP 19
0
13.4%
Deshaun Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+4
12.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Zac Brooks for 4 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
32.7%
Artavis Scott 15 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 30TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:2882% → 99%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
18.4%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 23Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+63
19.6%
Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 63 yds to the Clem 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
14.1%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Clem 11Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+5
12.1%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Clem 6Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+3
7.9%
Jake Coker run for 3 yds to the Clem 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
4.6%
Derrick Henry run for 2 yds to the Clem 1Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
3.3%
Jake Coker run for no gain to the Clem 1Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.1%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 31TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 0:442% → 16%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
2.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 6 yds to the Clem 38Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+28
2.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 28 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
3.7%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Zac BrooksSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+10
3.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 10 yds Charone Peake fumbled, forced by Cyrus Jones, recovered by Clem for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
3.8%
Deshaun Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
15.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 24 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 32END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
3.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:31
Greg Huegel kickoff for 60 yds , Kenyan Drake return for 95 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
-26.8
TD · Q4 9:45
Jake Coker pass complete to O.J. Howard for 51 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
-26.4
TD · Q4 4:40
Artavis Scott 15 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+20.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com