2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · Landon Ard on-side kick recovered by CLEMSON at the SCaro 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 2:16: C.J. Fuller run for 4 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +8.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:08: Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 57 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK) — SC win probability +8.7 pts (now 15%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:19: Shon Carson run for 1 yd for a TD, (L. Nunez Run For Two-point Conversion) — SC win probability +24.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q4 8:05: Deshaun Watson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel PAT MISSED) — CLEM win probability +12.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:01: Perry Orth pass complete to Shon Carson for 11 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK) — SC win probability +16.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 6 of 8CLEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
- Q1 13:59SC 4th & 8 at SC 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snapGo for it17.3%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.4%average punt
- Q1 13:20CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snapGo for it82.3%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.3%average punt
- Q1 8:50SC 4th & 1 at CLEM 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.2%71% to convertField goal20.0%−0.266% to makePunt19.5%−0.7average punt
- Q1 4:12SC 4th & 8 at SC 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snapGo for it22.0%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.1%average punt
- Q2 14:56SC 4th & 9 at CLEM 38, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 25.0% before the snapGo for it25.1%32% to convertField goalTheir call25.0%−0.138% to makePunt25.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 13:43CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snapGo for it74.9%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.1%average punt
- Q2 11:54SC 4th & 6 at SC 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snapGo for it26.6%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.6%average punt
- Q2 7:10SC 4th & 10 at SC 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snapGo for it19.8%−1.028% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.8%average punt
- Q2 0:24SC 4th & 3 at CLEM 3, down 14Close callKicked a field goal · 16.0% before the snapGo for it16.0%44% to convertField goalTheir call15.7%−0.393% to makePunt13.0%−3.0average punt
- Q4 7:37SC 4th & 10 at SC 23, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snapGo for it11.2%−1.828% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.0%average punt
- Q4 2:59CLEM 4th & 2 at SC 41, up 9Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 91.8% before the snapGo for it91.7%57% to convertField goal90.0%−1.732% to makePuntTheir call90.0%−1.8average punt
- Q4 1:22CLEM 4th & 4 at SC 19, up 9Close callKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snapGo for it93.9%47% to convertField goalTheir call93.9%−<0.177% to makePunt90.3%−3.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 2 of 4CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q2 8:42CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.5%97% to makeGo for two77.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:17CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.1%97% to makeGo for two83.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:32CLEM Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.2%97% to makeGo for two88.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:43SC Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call16.7%97% to makeGo for two16.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:16CLEM Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.1%97% to makeGo for two91.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:08SC Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.2%97% to makeGo for two13.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:19SC Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick28.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call28.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:05CLEM Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call87.7%97% to makeGo for two87.2%−0.545% to convert
- Q4 0:01SC Touchdown, down 6 before the tryNumbers favored go for two by 1.5 ptsKicked · madeKickTheir call4.6%−1.597% to makeGo for two6.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSCDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5111% → 11%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2289% → 88%
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
11.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 4 yds to the Clem 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3INT12 plays · 45 yds · 4:2512% → 14%
Q1 12:38
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+2
12.0%
Lorenzo Nunez pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 2 yds to the SCaro 36Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 16
OPP 40
+11
13.5%
Perry Orth pass complete to David Williams for 11 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+7
14.3%
Perry Orth pass intercepted Adrian Baker return for 7 yds to the Clem 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4FUMBLE6 plays · 52 yds · 2:0486% → 86%
Q1 6:13
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+25
14.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 25 yds to the SCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
14.4%
Wayne Gallman run for 6 yds to the SCaro 37 Wayne Gallman fumbled, forced by Skai Moore, recovered by SCaro Rico McWilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1516% → 16%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
15.5%
Perry Orth sacked by Shaq Lawson for a loss of 6 yards to the SCaro 31Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 16
OWN 31
+3
15.5%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 3 yds to the SCaro 34Similar
Q1 4:12
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
15.8%
Sean Kelly punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Artavis Scott at the Clem 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6FUMBLE6 plays · 24 yds · 2:0484% → 84%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
16.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Germone Hopper for 4 yds to the Clem 30Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+1
16.2%
Deshaun Watson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Clem 39 Deshaun Watson fumbled, recovered by SCaro Dante Sawyer , return for 1 yd to the Clem 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7MISSED FG5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5418% → 19%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4482% → 81%
Q2 13:43
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
18.8%
Andy Teasdall punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Pharoh Cooper at the SCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 1:3620% → 20%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10TD8 plays · 83 yds · 2:5880% → 85%
Q2 11:05
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+10
20.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Germone Hopper for 10 yds to the Clem 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
19.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 5 yds to the SCaro 33Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+20
19.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 20 yds to the SCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
19.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Germone Hopper for 8 yds to the SCaro 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1117% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12TD8 plays · 94 yds · 2:2883% → 89%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
16.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 9 yds to the Clem 27Similar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
16.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 4 yds to the Clem 45Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+55
11.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 55 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13FG14 plays · 76 yds · 3:1512% → 15%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-11
11.8%
Lorenzo Nunez sacked by B.J. Goodson and Carlos Watkins for a loss of 11 yards to the SCaro 10Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-12
13.3%
Pharoh Cooper sacked by T.J. Green for a loss of 12 yards to the Clem 30Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 22
OPP 30
+24
12.4%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 24 yds to the Clem 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1385% → 93%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+27
14.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 27 yds to the SCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 16TD11 plays · 76 yds · 5:229% → 16%
Q3 11:33
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+48
8.2%
Perry Orth pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 48 yds to the Clem 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+10
9.6%
Perry Orth pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 10 yds to the Clem 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
16.4%
Perry Orth pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 7 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1486% → 96%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
13.2%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 7 yds to the SCaro 46Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+9
13.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 9 yds to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+11
13.2%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 11 yds to the SCaro 31Similar
Q3 3:04
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+19
12.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 19 yds to the SCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:577% → 15%
Q3 0:49
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+22
6.2%
Lorenzo Nunez run for 22 yds to the SCaro 42 Lorenzo Nunez fumbled, forced by T.J. Green, recovered by SCaro Zack Bailey for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:08
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+57
15.0%
Perry Orth pass complete to Pharoh Cooper for 57 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19FUMBLE5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2387% → 88%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
12.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for a loss of 2 yards Artavis Scott fumbled, forced by Skai Moore, recovered by SCaro T.J. Holloman , return for 8 yds to the Clem 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20TD4 plays · 26 yds · 0:5717% → 41%
CLEMDrive 21TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5773% → 89%
Q4 11:20
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+12
28.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 12 yds to the SCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
26.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Germone Hopper for 11 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+24
25.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Trevion Thompson for 24 yds to the SCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1714% → 12%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23PUNT8 plays · 29 yds · 3:5988% → 94%
SCDrive 24DOWNS3 plays · 9 yds · 0:328% → 7%
CLEMDrive 25FG7 plays · 6 yds · 0:1896% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 26TD8 plays · 61 yds · 1:042% → 19%
Q4 0:39
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+10
2.2%
Perry Orth pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+29
2.8%
Perry Orth pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 29 yds to the Clem 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
18.8%
Perry Orth pass complete to Shon Carson for 11 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:19
Shon Carson run for 1 yd for a TD, (L. Nunez Run For Two-point Conversion)
+24.7
TD · Q4 0:01
Perry Orth pass complete to Shon Carson for 11 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)
+16
TD · Q4 8:05
Deshaun Watson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel PAT MISSED)
-12.5