South Florida

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.029th
  Defense+0.1355th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense34.3%1st
  Defense46.2%18th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3086th
  Defense+0.9998th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.085th
  Defense+0.0176th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1530th
  Defense+0.2919th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense35.6%1st
  Defense52.5%9th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.3%35th
  Defense31.1%64th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.192nd
  Defense2.8158th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense25.8%6th
  Defense19.4%46th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.0%52nd
  Defense1.6%25th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what South Florida allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   WCU
2. L
   MD
3. L
   NCSU
4. W
   CONN
5. L
   WIS
6. L
   ECU
7. W
   TLSA
8. L
   CIN
9. L
   HOU
10. W
    SMU
11. L
    MEM
12. L
    UCF

Bars above the line: better than expected for South Florida.

Players, 2014

1. Mike WhiteQB205 plays · +0.260 pts/play · 104th of 199 QBs
   1.00WAR0.68 to 1.35
2. Marlon MackRB187 plays · +0.123 pts/play · 34th of 350 RBs
   0.43WAR0.26 to 0.60
3. Steven BenchQB81 plays · +0.218 pts/play · 150th of 199 QBs
   0.33WAR0.21 to 0.45
4. Andre DavisWR53 plays · +0.189 pts/play · 78th of 469 WRs
   0.19WAR0.12 to 0.26
5. Mattias CiabattiP52 plays · +0.159 pts/play · 18th of 94 punters
   0.15WAR0.09 to 0.23
6. Quinton FlowersQB25 plays · +0.258 pts/play · 176th of 199 QBs
   0.12WAR0.08 to 0.16
7. Rodney AdamsWR33 plays · +0.163 pts/play · 200th of 469 WRs
   0.10WAR0.04 to 0.16
8. D'Ernest JohnsonRB45 plays · +0.096 pts/play · 231st of 350 RBs
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.11

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares South Florida's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than South Florida's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 8 clear-cut ones account for 0.13 of the 0.19 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs CONNQ4 6:03 4th & 1 at CONN 1, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.4 pts
2. vs CONNQ2 11:34 4th & 1 at USF 44, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
3. vs MDQ3 9:27 4th & 4 at MD 36, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
4. vs CONNQ2 8:16 4th & 3 at CONN 45, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
5. vs ECUQ4 10:24 4th & 3 at USF 35, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
6. vs MDQ2 6:54 4th & 12 at MD 15, tiedWent for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.1 pts
7. vs ECUQ4 0:31 4th & 10 at ECU 11, down 11Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
8. vs UCFQ3 3:56 4th & 10 at UCF 14, down 16Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.0 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

98th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up South Florida's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   WCU
2. L

   MD
3. L

   NCSU
4. W

   CONN
5. L

   WIS
6. L

   ECU
7. W

   TLSA
8. L

   CIN
9. L

   HOU
10. W

    SMU
11. L

    MEM
12. L

    UCF

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at South Florida's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.28
• Possession & field position−0.03
• Clock−0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.21

Game by game

• WCUW 36-31 vs WCU96% → 95%Before kickoff +46 · On the field −1: Scoreboard +10, Timeouts +1
• MDL 17-24 vs MD25% → 4%Before kickoff −25 · On the field −20: Scoreboard −33, Clock −2
• NCSUL 17-49 vs NCSU51% → 0%Before kickoff +1 · On the field −51: Scoreboard −53, Possession & field position −1
• CONNW 17-14 vs CONN61% → 95%Before kickoff +11 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +32, Timeouts +2
• WISL 10-27 at WIS3% → 1%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −7
• ECUL 17-28 vs ECU18% → 3%Before kickoff −32 · On the field −16: Scoreboard −29, Clock −2
• TLSAW 38-30 at TLSA63% → 97%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +44, Clock +3
• CINL 17-34 at CIN30% → 1%Before kickoff −20 · On the field −29: Scoreboard −31
• HOUL 3-27 vs HOU27% → 0%Before kickoff −23 · On the field −27: Scoreboard −33, Clock −2
• SMUW 14-13 at SMU84% → 88%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +28, Clock +2
• MEML 20-31 at MEM12% → 3%Before kickoff −38 · On the field −9: Scoreboard −17, Timeouts −1
• UCFL 0-16 vs UCF30% → 1%Before kickoff −20 · On the field −29: Scoreboard −38, Clock −2

Points of win probability, from South Florida's side.

Closest call

BYU 23-27 USF (2019) - South Florida dropped to a 1.7% win probability before pulling it out.