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USF

South Florida 14 at SMU 13

SMU
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2014 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:29 · Mattias Ciabatti punt for 44 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Pregame prior−30.5Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Time remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. MISSED FG · Q3 4:04: Cody Rademacher 36 yd FG MISSED — SMU win probability +13.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 8:02: Mike White pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 12 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK) — USF win probability +24.0 pts (now 38%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:53: Matt Davis run for 8 yds to the SMU 32 — SMU win probability +10.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:07: Timeout SOUTH FLORIDA, clock 03:07 — SMU win probability +11.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:04: Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 4 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK) — USF win probability +73.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8USF made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00SMU 4th & 12 at USF 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:50USF 4th & 3 at SMU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    76.6%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:32SMU 4th & 14 at SMU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:29USF 4th & 15 at USF 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:50SMU 4th & 6 at USF 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    30.1%−2.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:55USF 4th & 15 at USF 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−2.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:35SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:55USF 4th & 3 at USF 39, down 13
    Close callPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:04SMU 4th & 6 at USF 19, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    70.9%−9.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:04USF 4th & 27 at USF 39, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−3.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00SMU 4th & 2 at SMU 25, up 13
    Close callPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:37USF 4th & 4 at USF 39, down 13
    Close callPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:30SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 13, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−1.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:53SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 29, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:07USF 4th & 1 at SMU 38, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    12.7%−9.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−11.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:00USF 4th & 10 at SMU 23, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.7%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%−4.9
    70% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−7.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:04USF 4th & 4 at SMU 4, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    9.1%−26.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−25.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 0:21SMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 8:02USF Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.9%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.2%
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 0:04USF Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−15.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
15.5%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Deion Sanders Jr.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
15.5%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 39
-5
15.5%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 44
+3
15.5%
Matt Davis run for 3 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
15.5%
Jackson Koonce punt for 30 yds, downed at the SFla 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2DOWNS
14 plays · 76 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
16.1%
Marlon Mack run for 9 yds to the SFla 20Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+3
16.1%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
16.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
16.1%
Darius Tice run for 4 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+22
16.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 22 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
16.0%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
16.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+5
16.0%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
16.0%
Darius Tice run for 5 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+13
16.0%
Marlon Mack run for 13 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
16.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
16.0%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+5
16.0%
Darius Tice run for 5 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q1 13:50
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+2
16.0%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the SMU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
19.7%
Prescott Line run for 2 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 8
OWN 15
-7
19.7%
DAVIS,Matt rush for 6 yards to the SMU21 (LEE, Eric), PENALTY SMU holding 7 yards to the SMU8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 15
OWN 8
+4
19.6%
Matt Davis pass complete to Darius Joseph for 4 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 11
OWN 12
-3
19.4%
Matt Davis pass complete to K.C. Nlemchi for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 9Similar
Q1 6:32
4TH & 14
OWN 9
0
19.3%
Jackson Koonce punt for 47 yds, downed at the SFla 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:4880% → 78%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
20.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-2
20.4%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 42Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 12
OWN 42
-3
21.4%
Deonte Welch run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 39Similar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 15
OWN 39
0
21.9%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5FG
9 plays · 72 yds · 4:4922% → 27%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
22.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Deion Sanders Jr. for 5 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+12
22.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Deion Sanders Jr. for 12 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
22.5%
Prescott Line run for 3 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+9
22.8%
Matt Davis pass complete to Deion Sanders Jr. for 9 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+39
23.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 39 yds to the SFla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
25.9%
Matt Davis pass complete to K.C. Nlemchi for 6 yds to the SFla 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 9
-3
25.9%
K.C. Nlemchi run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+1
25.4%
Matt Davis run for 1 yd to the SFla 11Similar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+28
27.3%
Cody Rademacher 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 22 yds · 4:4973% → 66%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
27.0%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+10
26.9%
Marlon Mack run for 10 yds to the SFla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
26.8%
Kennard Swanson run for 1 yd to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+4
26.9%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+8
26.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Andre Davis for 8 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
25.9%
FLOWERS, Quinto pass incomplete to BRONSON, Ryshen, PENALTY USF personal foul 15 yards to the USF25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 25
OWN 25
+5
27.0%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 20
OWN 30
+5
27.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 5 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 15
OWN 35
0
33.2%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Deonte WelchSimilar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 15
OWN 35
+3
33.7%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 52 yds , Der'rikk Thompson returns for 3 yds to the SMU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
32.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Darius Joseph for 6 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+15
32.4%
Matt Davis pass complete to Deion Sanders Jr. for 15 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
32.9%
Matt Davis pass complete to Deion Sanders Jr. for 4 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
33.7%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Darius JosephSimilar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+6
32.8%
Matt Davis pass complete to K.C. Nlemchi for 6 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
33.9%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 1 yd to the SMU 48Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
33.7%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Prescott LineSimilar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
32.5%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Prescott LineSimilar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
31.9%
Jackson Koonce punt for 40 yds , Chris Dunkley returns for no gain to the SFla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8FUMBLE
8 plays · 49 yds · 2:4464% → 62%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
36.2%
Marlon Mack run for 7 yds to the SFla 19Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+16
35.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Deonte Welch for 16 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
35.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Andre Davis for 13 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
33.8%
Darius Tice run for 7 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 3
OPP 45
-15
33.2%
FLOWERS, Quinto pass incomplete to DAVIS, Andre, PENALTY USF pass interference (DAVIS, Andre) 15 yards to the USF40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 18
OWN 40
+6
35.4%
Ryeshene Bronson run for 6 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+14
37.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Andre Davis for 14 yds Andre Davis fumbled, forced by Darrion Richardson, recovered by SMU Hayden GreenbauerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 1:0138% → 51%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+45
38.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 45 yds to the SFla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
41.2%
Matt Davis run for 4 yds to the SFla 12Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+7
41.0%
Matt Davis run for 7 yds to the SFla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
41.0%
Matt Davis run for 2 yds to the SFla 3Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
51.1%
Matt Davis pass complete to Justin Lawler for 3 yds for a TD, (Cody Rademacher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:1754% → 60%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
54.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to K.C. Nlemchi for 6 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 4
OPP 27
-5
53.5%
SMU Penalty, false start (Chauncey Briggs) to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
54.0%
Matt Davis pass incomplete, broken up by Derrick CallowaySimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+49
59.8%
Cody Rademacher 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-11
56.4%
MACK, Marlon rush for 22 yards to the USF44 (RICHARDSON,D), PENALTY USF personal foul 11 yards to the USF11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 21
OWN 11
+1
56.6%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 12Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 20
OWN 12
+19
56.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 19 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+1
55.8%
Darius Tice run for 1 yd to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
55.8%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+4
55.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
55.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marlon MackSimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
56.3%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Der'rikk Thompson at the SMU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13MISSED FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 7:0065% → 79%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
64.9%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
64.8%
K.C. Nlemchi run for no gain to the SMU 18Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+15
63.2%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Derrick Calloway) to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
65.0%
Matt Davis run for 10 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
66.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Deion Sanders Jr. for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 3
50
+6
67.6%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 6 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
66.4%
Matt Davis pass complete to K.C. Nlemchi for no gain to the SFla 44Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
66.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Prescott Line for 4 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+7
66.5%
Matt Davis run for 7 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
66.4%
Prescott Line run for 10 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
66.4%
Prescott Line run for 1 yd to the SFla 22Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 9
OPP 22
-2
66.4%
Matt Davis pass complete to Darius Joseph for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 24Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+5
65.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Darius Joseph for 5 yds to the SFla 19Similar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
78.8%
Cody Rademacher 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
75.6%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+34
75.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Kennard Swanson for 34 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-15
72.3%
FLOWERS, Quinto pass incomplete to DAVIS, Andre, PENALTY USF personal foul 15 yards to the USF41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 25
OWN 41
+3
75.5%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 22
OWN 44
0
75.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Andre DavisSimilar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 22
OWN 44
-5
75.9%
FLOWERS, Quinto rush for loss of 7 yards to the USF37 (SANDERS,S), PENALTY USF false start 5 yards to the USF39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 27
OWN 39
0
76.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Deonte Welch SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 27
OWN 39
-5
76.7%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 54 yds , Der'rikk Thompson returns for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:2583% → 85%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
82.5%
Prescott Line run for 2 yds to the SMU 4Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+1
82.4%
Matt Davis pass complete to Darius Joseph for 1 yd to the SMU 5Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+12
85.7%
Matt Davis pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 12 yds to the SMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
86.7%
Matt Davis run for 8 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 25
-5
86.9%
Matt Davis sacked by TEAM for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 20 Matt Davis fumbled, recovered by SMU Matt Davis , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+5
86.1%
Matt Davis pass complete to Deion Sanders Jr. for 5 yds to the SMU 25 SMU Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 25
0
85.4%
Jackson Koonce punt for 39 yds , Jalen Spencer returns for no gain to the SFla 33 Jalen Spencer fumbled, recovered by SFla Chris DunkleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
84.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Deonte WelchSimilar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
84.9%
Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
84.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
84.8%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 52 yds, downed at the SMU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0090% → 88%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
89.6%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Darius JosephSimilar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 9
-4
89.6%
Prescott Line run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 5Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 14
OWN 5
+8
89.2%
Matt Davis run for 8 yds to the SMU 13Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 6
OWN 13
+11
88.4%
Jackson Koonce punt for 46 yds , Hassan Childs returns for 11 yds to the SMU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 1:4313% → 38%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
86.7%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+22
86.6%
Mike White pass complete to Mike McFarland for 22 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
85.3%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+11
85.8%
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 11 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
61.8%
Mike White pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 12 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
80.5%
Matt Davis run for 8 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 2
OWN 32
-3
81.5%
Prescott Line run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
79.7%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
78.6%
Jackson Koonce punt for 46 yds, downed at the SFla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20TD
24 plays · 75 yds · 5:5827% → 88%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.0%
Darius Tice run for 4 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
71.6%
Mike White run for 6 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
71.5%
Mike White sacked by Zach Wood for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
73.2%
Mike White pass incomplete to Mike McFarlandSimilar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+20
74.8%
Mike White pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 20 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
67.1%
Mike White pass incomplete to Andre DavisSimilar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
68.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+8
69.5%
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 8 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 3:07
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+4
80.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
76.6%
Mike White pass incomplete to Mike McFarlandSimilar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
77.2%
Mike White run for 3 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+8
79.1%
Mike White pass complete to Mike McFarland for 8 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-7
75.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the SMU 20 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 17
OPP 30
0
78.0%
Mike White pass incomplete to Andre DavisSimilar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 17
OPP 30
+7
79.5%
Mike White pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 7 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
83.4%
Mike White pass incomplete to Mike McFarlandSimilar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+14
85.8%
Mike White pass complete to Mike McFarland for 14 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
79.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
80.0%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
85.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the SMU 4Similar
Q4 0:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
11.7%
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 4 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:04
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 4 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK)
-73.4
TD · Q4 8:02
Mike White pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 12 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK)
-24
MISSED FG · Q3 4:04
Cody Rademacher 36 yd FG MISSED
+13.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com