Try the model
USF

South Florida 10 at Wisconsin 27

WIS
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Camp Randall Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:19 · Mattias Ciabatti punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kenzel Doe at the Wisc 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 6Pregame prior+46.2Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:15: Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 8 — USF win probability +2.8 pts (now 14%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:43: Melvin Gordon run for 7 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +5.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:04: Melvin Gordon run for 43 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +5.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:05: Rodney Adams run for 26 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK) — USF win probability +8.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:17: Tanner McEvoy pass complete to Sam Arneson for 1 yd for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +4.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 5USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:19USF 4th & 1 at USF 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:52WIS 4th & 3 at WIS 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:49USF 4th & 8 at WIS 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:52WIS 4th & 5 at USF 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:43WIS 4th & 24 at USF 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    91.7%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:58USF 4th & 2 at USF 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:54WIS 4th & 7 at WIS 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:48USF 4th & 5 at USF 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:14USF 4th & 4 at USF 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:04WIS 4th & 1 at USF 1, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.3%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    82.8%−7.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:48USF 4th & 15 at USF 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 10:43WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:04WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:05USF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:17WIS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:353% → 4%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.7%
Mike White pass incomplete to Kennard SwansonSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.7%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the SFla 25Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.6%
Mike White pass complete to Mike McFarland for 9 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
96.5%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kenzel Doe at the Wisc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:1897% → 96%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
96.5%
Melvin Gordon run for 6 yds to the Wisc 26Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
96.4%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-2
96.2%
Melvin Gordon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 27Similar
Q1 10:52
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+23
96.0%
Drew Meyer punt for 45 yds , Chris Dunkley returns for 23 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:564% → 5%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
96.0%
Marlon Mack run for 11 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
95.9%
Mike White pass incomplete to Deonte WelchSimilar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
95.8%
Rodney Adams run for 7 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+22
95.7%
Mike White pass complete to Kennard Swanson for 22 yds to the Wisc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
95.5%
Mike White run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 11 Mike White fumbled, recovered by SFla Mike WhiteSimilar
Q1 8:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+1
95.5%
Mike White run for 1 yd to the Wisc 10Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
95.4%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the Wisc 8Similar
Q1 6:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
95.1%
Marvin Kloss 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 5:5495% → 94%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.1%
Tanner McEvoy pass incomplete to Melvin GordonSimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.0%
Melvin Gordon run for 1 yd to the Wisc 26Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+17
94.7%
Tanner McEvoy pass complete to Jordan Fredrick for 17 yds to the Wisc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
94.8%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+8
94.7%
George Rushing run for 8 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+23
94.6%
Tanner McEvoy pass complete to Alex Erickson for 23 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
94.6%
Melvin Gordon run for 6 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+1
94.4%
Melvin Gordon run for 1 yd to the SFla 16Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 3
OPP 16
-5
94.1%
Corey Clement run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 21Similar
Q1 1:51
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+10
93.7%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Mike McFarland) to the SFla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
94.1%
Tanner McEvoy pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
94.0%
Melvin Gordon run for 5 yds to the SFla 6Similar
Q1 0:57
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
93.7%
Tanner McEvoy pass incomplete to Jordan FredrickSimilar
Q1 0:52
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
94.0%
Rafael Gaglianone 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5INT
8 plays · 4 yds · 2:467% → 7%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
93.4%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
93.2%
Mike White pass incomplete to Sean PriceSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+9
93.3%
Mike White pass complete to Sean Price for 9 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
92.7%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mike McFarland) to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+3
92.8%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 17
OWN 35
0
92.6%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 17
OWN 35
+19
92.7%
Mike White pass intercepted Derek Landisch return for 19 yds to the SFla 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 3:0293% → 92%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
93.4%
Tanner McEvoy pass complete to Alex Erickson for 11 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-6
93.4%
Melvin Gordon run for 4 yds to the SFla 21 WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Austin Traylor) to the SFla 31Similar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 16
OPP 31
+3
93.1%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 13
OPP 28
-2
93.0%
Melvin Gordon run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 15
OPP 30
-9
92.2%
Tanner McEvoy sacked by Reshard Cliett for a loss of 9 yards to the SFla 39Similar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 24
OPP 39
0
91.7%
Drew Meyer punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Chris Dunkley at the SFla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:329% → 10%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
91.2%
Kennard Swanson run for 6 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+10
90.9%
Mike White pass complete to Rodney Adams for 10 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
90.6%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Darrell Williams) to the SFla 23Similar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 15
OWN 23
-13
90.2%
Mike White sacked by Derek Landisch for a loss of 13 yards to the SFla 10 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Mike White) to the SFla 10Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 28
OWN 10
+26
90.0%
Mike White pass complete to Deonte Welch for 26 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
89.3%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
89.7%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kenzel Doe at the Wisc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5791% → 90%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.7%
Tanner McEvoy pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
90.6%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
90.1%
Tanner McEvoy pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q2 5:54
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
89.7%
Drew Meyer punt for 42 yds, downed at the SFla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0011% → 11%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
88.8%
Mike White pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
88.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
88.0%
Mike White pass incomplete to Sean PriceSimilar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
88.6%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10FUMBLE
9 plays · 76 yds · 4:2090% → 89%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
89.8%
Melvin Gordon run for 4 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+11
89.7%
Melvin Gordon run for 11 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
89.4%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+28
89.4%
Tanner McEvoy pass complete to Corey Clement for 28 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
90.1%
Corey Clement run for 5 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+17
89.8%
Corey Clement run for 4 yds to the SFla 26 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Tashon Whitehurst) to the SFla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
89.8%
Tanner McEvoy run for 7 yds to the SFla 6Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+1
89.6%
Melvin Gordon run for 1 yd to the SFla 5Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 2
OPP 5
0
88.8%
Melvin Gordon run for no gain to the SFla 5 Melvin Gordon fumbled, forced by Elkino Watson, recovered by SFla Nate GodwinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
86.1%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1087% → 92%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
86.8%
Melvin Gordon run for 22 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
87.6%
Melvin Gordon run for 10 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
87.7%
Melvin Gordon run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 45Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+1
86.7%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the SFla 44Similar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+10
85.6%
McEvoy, Tanner pass incomplete to Erickson, Alex, PENALTY SOUFLA holding (Ward, Johnny) 10 yards to the SOUFLA34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
87.1%
Tanner McEvoy pass complete to Alex Erickson for 14 yds to the SFla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
86.9%
Tanner McEvoy run for 9 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+4
86.6%
Melvin Gordon run for 4 yds to the SFla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
91.6%
Melvin Gordon run for 7 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:1610% → 10%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
90.1%
Marlon Mack run for 7 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+2
89.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 1
OWN 18
-3
89.9%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 15Similar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 4
OWN 15
+24
90.1%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 52 yds , Kenzel Doe returns for 24 yds to the SFla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14TD
1 play · 43 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
95.4%
Melvin Gordon run for 43 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:536% → 15%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
94.4%
Mike White pass complete to Rodney Adams for 10 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
94.0%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+35
93.7%
Mike White pass complete to Mike McFarland for 35 yds to the Wisc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
85.3%
Rodney Adams run for 26 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16FG
10 plays · 74 yds · 4:5390% → 92%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
90.4%
Melvin Gordon run for 11 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
90.7%
Melvin Gordon run for 9 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+23
91.1%
Tanner McEvoy pass complete to Alex Erickson for 23 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
91.3%
Melvin Gordon run for 2 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+20
91.1%
Corey Clement run for 20 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
91.0%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the SFla 7Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
91.4%
Corey Clement run for 6 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
90.7%
Corey Clement run for no gain to the SFla 1Similar
Q3 1:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
91.7%
Rafael Gaglianone 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17FUMBLE
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:009% → 9%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
90.6%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+6
90.8%
Mike White run for 6 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+52
90.7%
Mike White pass complete to Kennard Swanson for 52 yds Kennard Swanson fumbled, forced by Lubern Figaro, recovered by Wisc Vince BiegelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18TD
21 plays · 90 yds · 9:2392% → 98%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
91.6%
Tanner McEvoy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 9 Tanner McEvoy fumbled, recovered by Wisc Tanner McEvoySimilar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 11
OWN 9
0
91.0%
Tanner McEvoy pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 11
OWN 9
+11
90.8%
Tanner McEvoy run for 11 yds to the Wisc 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
91.4%
Gordon, Melvin rush for loss of 4 yards to the WISCONSIN16, PENALTY WISCONSIN holding (Costigan, Kyle) 10 yards to the WISCONSIN10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+4
91.6%
Melvin Gordon run for 4 yds to the Wisc 14Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 16
OWN 14
-4
91.5%
Tanner McEvoy run for 6 yds to the Wisc 20 WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sam Arneson) to the Wisc 10Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+15
91.4%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.8%
Melvin Gordon run for 9 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
91.8%
Tanner McEvoy pass complete to Alex Erickson for 12 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
92.1%
Corey Clement run for 7 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+2
92.4%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+1
91.7%
Melvin Gordon run for 1 yd to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
93.1%
Tanner McEvoy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
93.4%
Melvin Gordon run for 5 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+14
93.2%
Tanner McEvoy pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 14 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
93.6%
Tanner McEvoy pass complete to Kenzel Doe for 9 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+4
93.8%
Melvin Gordon run for 4 yds to the SFla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
94.0%
Melvin Gordon run for 2 yds to the SFla 10Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
94.0%
Corey Clement run for no gain to the SFla 10Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+9
93.7%
McEvoy, Tanner pass incomplete to Erickson, Alex, PENALTY SOUFLA pass interference (Godwin, Nate) 9 yards to the SOUFLA1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.2%
Tanner McEvoy pass complete to Sam Arneson for 1 yd for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:242% → 2%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
Mike White pass incomplete to Marlon MackSimilar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
Mike White pass incomplete to Marlon MackSimilar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.2%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SFla 20Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
98.2%
Mike White pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q4 4:48
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
98.3%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kenzel Doe at the Wisc 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20END OF GAME
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:1098% → 99%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
98.1%
Tanner McEvoy pass complete to Alex Erickson for 8 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+7
98.3%
Corey Clement run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
50
+5
98.3%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Deadrin Senat) to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 5
OPP 45
+5
98.4%
Corey Clement run for 5 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
98.4%
Corey Clement run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 41Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+7
98.7%
Corey Clement run for 7 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+16
98.6%
Corey Clement run for 16 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
99.0%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (George Rushing) to the SFla 23Similar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+1
99.0%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 1 yd to the SFla 22Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 14
OPP 22
+4
99.0%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 4 yds to the SFla 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:05
Rodney Adams run for 26 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK)
-8.4
TD · Q3 8:04
Melvin Gordon run for 43 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+5.2
TD · Q3 10:43
Melvin Gordon run for 7 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com