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USF

South Florida 38 at Tulsa 30

TLSA
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:42 · Mattias Ciabatti punt for 49 yds, downed at the Tulsa 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Home team on offense+12.7Pregame prior−3.4Garbage-time factor+1.0Score differential+4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:31: Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 8 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK) — TLSA win probability +12.6 pts (now 67%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Carl Salazar 19 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +15.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:34: Marlon Mack run for 54 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK) — USF win probability +17.8 pts (now 30%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:23: Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 15 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK) — USF win probability +27.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:13: Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 85 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK) — USF win probability +43.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:13TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:33USF 4th & 6 at USF 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:43TLSA 4th & 12 at USF 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:45USF 4th & 3 at USF 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:28USF 4th & 9 at USF 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−2.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:36TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 48, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:27USF 4th & 18 at USF 17, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−4.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00TLSA 4th & 2 at USF 2, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.4%−3.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−13.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:27TLSA 4th & 12 at USF 15, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−1.9
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    73.2%−7.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:16TLSA 4th & 8 at USF 49, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:42USF 4th & 6 at USF 15, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−1.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:10TLSA 4th & 6 at USF 30, up 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.5%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    78.6%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:24TLSA 4th & 10 at midfield, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:17TLSA 4th & 17 at TLSA 13, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−4.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:33USF 4th & 6 at TLSA 10, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    71.4%−12.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:35TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 33, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.4%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:30TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:37USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:17TLSA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:31TLSA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:34USF Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:52USF Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:23USF Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.5%−0.8
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:13USF Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−1.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4137% → 38%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
37.1%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
37.2%
Zack Langer run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+6
37.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 6 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
37.6%
Dalton Parks punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2INT TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:2162% → 61%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
37.7%
Mike White pass complete to Rodney Adams for 3 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+46
38.6%
M. White pass intercepted for a TD,A. McDaniel return for 46 yds for a TD, (C. Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5261% → 60%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
38.8%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
38.7%
Mike White pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
39.3%
Mike White pass incomplete to Deonte WelchSimilar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
39.6%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:2540% → 40%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
39.7%
James Flanders run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+6
40.1%
James Flanders run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 29 James Flanders fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by SFla Tashon WhitehurstSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5TD
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:1361% → 62%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
39.3%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 24 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (NA) to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+34
38.1%
Marlon Mack run for 34 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:3739% → 41%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
38.8%
Dane Evans run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
38.9%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the Tulsa 27 TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kolton Shindelar) to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+40
39.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 40 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-8
39.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 2 yds to the Tulsa 41 TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Derek Patterson) to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 18
OWN 49
+5
39.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Bishop Louie for 5 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+11
39.6%
Zack Langer run for 11 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+6
40.2%
Zack Langer run for 6 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
40.7%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Face Mask (12 yards) (Nigel Harris) to the SFla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
41.1%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the SFla 9Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
41.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Kolton ShindelarSimilar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 7
OPP 9
-5
41.0%
Dane Evans sacked by Elkino Watson for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 14Similar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 12
OPP 14
+31
41.2%
Carl Salazar 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4858% → 57%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
41.7%
Mike White pass complete to Rodney Adams for 4 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+4
41.8%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 2
OWN 32
-1
42.1%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 31Similar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+7
43.1%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 52 yds , Conner Floyd returns for 7 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 1:1842% → 48%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
42.3%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
42.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+39
42.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Bishop Louie for 39 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
44.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 14 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
48.3%
Bishop Louie run for 18 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9FUMBLE
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:4053% → 53%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
47.5%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 16Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+24
48.1%
Mike White pass complete to Deonte Welch for 24 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
47.5%
TULSA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Derrick Luetjen) to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
47.7%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+15
47.9%
Mike White pass complete to Darius Tice for 15 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
47.5%
Kennard Swanson run for no gain to the Tulsa 33 Kennard Swanson fumbled, forced by Jake Sizelove, recovered by Tulsa Kerwin ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 3:4050% → 67%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
49.9%
Zack Langer run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 1
OWN 42
0
51.3%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+5
51.1%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+26
52.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 41 yds to the TULSA 12 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (Derek Patterson) to the SFla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
52.6%
Bishop Louie run for 3 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+15
53.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Derek Patterson for 15 yds to the SFla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
53.6%
Tavarreon Dickerson run for 1 yd to the SFla 8Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
54.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Mandel DixonSimilar
Q2 10:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
67.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 8 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5736% → 32%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
64.1%
Mike White pass complete to Sean Price for 2 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-3
64.8%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 34Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+2
66.8%
Mike White run for 2 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q2 8:28
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+16
67.7%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 51 yds , Bishop Louie returns for 16 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:4570% → 70%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
69.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 12 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
69.6%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+2
70.0%
Dane Evans run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+3
70.0%
Dane Evans run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q2 6:36
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
70.0%
Dalton Parks punt for 40 yds, downed at the SFla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 3:0231% → 27%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
68.6%
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 5 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 5
OWN 17
0
69.2%
Mike White pass incomplete to Andre DavisSimilar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+8
69.5%
Mike White pass complete to Mike McFarland for 8 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.9%
Mike White pass incomplete to Andre DavisSimilar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.1%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 26Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
71.1%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Austin McDaniel) to the SFla 31Similar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
70.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Brynjar Gudmundsson) to the SFla 26Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-9
71.8%
Mike White sacked by Derrick Alexander for a loss of 9 yards to the SFla 17Similar
Q2 3:27
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
72.9%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 34 yds, downed at the Tulsa 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14END OF HALF
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:1676% → 88%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
76.2%
Tavarreon Dickerson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+7
76.2%
Tavarreon Dickerson run for 7 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+40
75.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Derek Patterson for 40 yds to the SFla 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
77.0%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the SFla 5Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
77.5%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the SFla 2Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
77.2%
Mandel Dixon run for no gain to the SFla 2Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
88.1%
Carl Salazar 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 1:1213% → 30%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
87.1%
Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+18
87.6%
Mike White pass complete to Sean Price for 18 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
69.8%
Marlon Mack run for 54 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 5:0374% → 82%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.2%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+27
74.9%
Zack Langer run for 27 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
76.6%
Zack Langer run for 8 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+3
77.4%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
76.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 8 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+14
78.2%
Evans, Dane pass incomplete to Lucas, Keevan, PENALTY SOUFLA pass interference (Fullwood, Tajee) 14 yards to the SOUFLA13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
78.6%
Tavarreon Dickerson run for 4 yds to the SFla 9Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 6
OPP 9
-15
79.3%
TULSA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Chris Wallace) to the SFla 24Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 21
OPP 24
+4
79.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Tavarreon Dickerson for 4 yds to the SFla 20Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 17
OPP 20
+5
79.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Tavarreon Dickerson for 5 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+32
81.7%
Carl Salazar 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:2021% → 32%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
79.0%
Mike White pass incomplete to Deonte WelchSimilar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
79.6%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the SFla 48Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+26
80.4%
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 26 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
77.8%
Mike White pass incomplete to Marlon MackSimilar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
78.7%
Marlon Mack run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+2
79.6%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
67.8%
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 15 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:2474% → 77%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
73.6%
Zack Langer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+12
73.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 12 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
74.9%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (Garrett Gladd) to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+12
75.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 12 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+6
77.2%
Zack Langer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
77.7%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 9
50
+1
78.8%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the SFla 49Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
77.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Brodrick UmblanceSimilar
Q3 2:16
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
76.5%
Dalton Parks punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Hassan Childs at the SFla 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2323% → 20%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
76.9%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 12Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 9
OWN 12
-2
77.6%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 10Similar
Q3 0:52
3RD & 11
OWN 10
0
79.2%
Mike White pass incomplete to Deonte WelchSimilar
Q3 0:52
4TH & 11
OWN 10
+5
79.9%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jeremy Smith) to the SFla 15Similar
Q3 0:42
4TH & 6
OWN 15
0
80.1%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 49 yds, downed at the Tulsa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20MISSED FG
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:2480% → 79%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+30
79.6%
Bishop Louie run for 30 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
81.4%
Zack Langer run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 35Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+5
81.3%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
80.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Derek PattersonSimilar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+6
78.9%
Carl Salazar 47 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Mike McFarland Kendall Sawyer return for 6 yds to the SFla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 4:3722% → 48%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
78.1%
Mike White pass complete to Marlon Mack for 15 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
76.8%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
76.6%
Mike White pass incomplete to Andre DavisSimilar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+8
77.5%
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 8 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-7
78.9%
Mike White sacked by Derrick Alexander for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 17
OPP 45
+9
80.9%
Mike White pass complete to Marlon Mack for 9 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+10
80.1%
Mike White pass complete to Rodney Adams for 10 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
78.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+10
79.1%
Mike White pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
51.8%
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 15 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:5163% → 67%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
62.8%
Zack Langer run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
62.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 6 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
61.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 11 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
65.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
50
+3
68.1%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-3
68.4%
Tavarreon Dickerson run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 10
50
0
69.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Brodrick UmblanceSimilar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 10
50
0
67.0%
Dalton Parks punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Hassan Childs at the SFla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23TD
1 play · 85 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+85
23.1%
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 85 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:4329% → 24%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
28.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 3 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-10
28.3%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Garrett Gladd) to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 17
OWN 13
0
27.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 17
OWN 13
0
26.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Derek PattersonSimilar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
23.7%
Dalton Parks punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Hassan Childs at the SFla 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 2:3382% → 94%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
17.8%
Marlon Mack run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 3
OPP 49
-7
15.5%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 46 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sean Price) to the SFla 44Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+16
15.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 16 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+26
14.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (Kerwin Thomas) to the Tulsa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
11.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-1
9.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+5
10.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+28
5.6%
Marvin Kloss 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:555% → 5%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
5.1%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+16
4.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 16 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
5.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 4 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
5.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
5.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Zack LangerSimilar
Q4 1:35
4TH & 6
OWN 33
+16
4.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan Lucas SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Nate Godwin) to the Tulsa 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 1:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
3.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 12
OWN 49
-2
3.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 47Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 47
-2
3.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:13
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 85 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK)
-43.9
TD · Q4 9:23
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 15 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK)
-27.3
TD · Q3 13:34
Marlon Mack run for 54 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK)
-17.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com