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ECU

East Carolina 28 at South Florida 17

USF
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:54 · Mattias Ciabatti punt for 37 yds, downed at the ECaro 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 77Pregame prior−19.5Home team on offense+7.2Garbage-time factor+1.6Score differential+1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:49: Marlon Mack run for 13 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK) — USF win probability +8.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:40: Marquez Grayson run for 24 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK) — ECU win probability +21.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 11:42: Breon Allen run for 4 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK) — ECU win probability +29.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:28: Mike White pass incomplete — USF win probability +5.6 pts (now 33%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:28: Anthony Scott run for 20 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK) — ECU win probability +11.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 3 of 8ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:41ECU 4th & 12 at USF 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:00ECU 4th & 9 at USF 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    74.3%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:19USF 4th & 11 at ECU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    27.8%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:15ECU 4th & 3 at USF 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    70.3%−1.0
    27% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:19USF 4th & 3 at USF 17, tied
    Close callPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:56ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:10ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:54USF 4th & 4 at ECU 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%−1.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:31USF 4th & 11 at midfield, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:23ECU 4th & 1 at USF 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.4%−3.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:24USF 4th & 3 at USF 35, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:55USF 4th & 10 at ECU 49, down 11
    Close callPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:31ECU 4th & 8 at ECU 33, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:32USF 4th & 10 at USF 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.8%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:31USF 4th & 10 at ECU 11, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.9%−1.0
    87% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:41USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:0282% → 81%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
18.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 6 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
18.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 11 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
18.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 13 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-6
18.8%
Shane Carden sacked by Elkino Watson for a loss of 6 yards to the ECaro 49Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 16
OWN 49
0
19.0%
Justin Hardy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 16
OWN 49
+4
19.3%
Breon Allen run for 4 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q1 12:41
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
19.5%
Worth Gregory punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 3:5120% → 24%
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
19.5%
Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the SFla 20Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+6
19.8%
Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the SFla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
20.2%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+7
20.5%
Mike White pass complete to Sean Price for 7 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+3
20.9%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
21.3%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
21.3%
Darius Tice run for 11 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
23.6%
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 51 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:3477% → 75%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.2%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
23.5%
Breon Allen run for 14 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
23.3%
Breon Allen run for 17 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
23.6%
Marquez Grayson run for 8 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 2
OPP 36
-15
23.9%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the ECaro 49Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 17
OWN 49
+4
24.8%
Breon Allen run for 4 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+4
25.3%
Breon Allen run for 4 yds to the SFla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4PUNT
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 6:00
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
25.4%
Worth Gregory punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 1:5726% → 28%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
26.2%
Kennard Swanson run for 5 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
26.4%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+16
26.5%
Mike White pass complete to Kennard Swanson for 16 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
27.6%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (15 Yards) to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
27.9%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-1
28.5%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 42Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 11
OPP 42
0
28.2%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:19
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
27.7%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:2372% → 76%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
28.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 12 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
28.0%
Breon Allen run for 17 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
27.3%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
27.9%
Breon Allen run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 9
50
+6
28.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 6 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 1:15
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+4
28.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 4 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
28.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Davon Grayson for 5 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
27.9%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Bryce WilliamsSimilar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+35
24.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Breon Allen for 35 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4126% → 27%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
26.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the SFla 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+1
26.4%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 15Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+2
26.4%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 3
OWN 17
+4
26.5%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 62 yds , Justin Hardy returns for 4 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5473% → 72%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
26.8%
Shane Carden sacked by Tashon Whitehurst for a loss of 6 yards to the ECaro 19Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+14
27.1%
Breon Allen run for 14 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
26.9%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:56
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+9
27.8%
Worth Gregory punt for 46 yds , Chris Dunkley returns for 9 yds to the SFla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 3:3329% → 42%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
28.9%
Mike White sacked by Fred Presley and Maurice Falls for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 25Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+6
28.7%
Mike White pass complete to Rodney Adams for 6 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+10
28.3%
White, Mike pass incomplete to Davis, Andre, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding 10 yards to the SOUFLA41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUFLA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
30.9%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+25
29.9%
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 25 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
32.1%
Rodney Adams pass incomplete to Andre DavisSimilar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+9
32.4%
Kennard Swanson run for 9 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+2
32.3%
Kennard Swanson run for 2 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
33.5%
Mike White pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+14
33.4%
Adams, Rodney rush for loss of 12 yards to the EASTCRLINA39, PENALTY EASTCRLINA personal foul 14 yards to the EASTCRLINA13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUFLA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
41.7%
Marlon Mack run for 13 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2661% → 57%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
38.9%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
39.5%
Anthony Scott run for 6 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 4
OWN 40
-6
39.5%
Shane Carden sacked by Derrick Calloway for a loss of 6 yards to the ECaro 34Similar
Q2 6:10
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
42.6%
Worth Gregory punt for 45 yds , Hassan Childs returns for no gain to the SFla 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:4042% → 46%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
42.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+8
42.3%
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 8 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
43.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the SFla 33Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+15
43.9%
Mike White pass complete to Rodney Adams for 15 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
46.9%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+3
47.5%
Kennard Swanson run for 3 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
47.4%
Mike White pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
46.3%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 37 yds, downed at the ECaro 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5953% → 52%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
46.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 11 yds to the ECaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-9
46.8%
Breon Allen run for 3 yds to the ECaro 23 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (-12 Yards) to the ECaro 11Similar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 19
OWN 11
+3
47.5%
Breon Allen run for 3 yds to the ECaro 14Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 16
OWN 14
0
47.9%
Shane Carden pass intercepted Johnny Ward return for no gain to the SFla 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 0:2749% → 56%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
48.8%
Marlon Mack run for 16 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
49.7%
Mike White pass complete to Mike McFarland for 8 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+1
49.8%
Mike White pass complete to Deonte Welch for 1 yd to the ECaro 39Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+21
48.9%
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 6 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the ECaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
51.5%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 23Similar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 15
OPP 23
0
51.6%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 15
OPP 23
-5
50.6%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 28Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 20
OPP 28
+45
55.7%
Marvin Kloss 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:4655% → 57%
Q3 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
54.6%
Kennard Swanson run for 4 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+15
55.9%
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 15 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
57.6%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
59.5%
Mike White pass complete to Rodney Adams for 6 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 1
OPP 40
-10
59.5%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 11
50
0
58.9%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:31
4TH & 11
50
0
57.3%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16TD
15 plays · 84 yds · 5:2742% → 59%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
58.4%
Marquez Grayson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 14Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+11
59.8%
Shane Carden run for 11 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+5
59.6%
Breon Allen run for 5 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
59.2%
Carden, Shane pass complete to Jones, Isaiah for no gain to the EASTCRLINA30, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 20
OWN 20
-10
60.8%
Carden, Shane pass incomplete to Brown, Trevon, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 30
OWN 10
+19
61.1%
Breon Allen run for 19 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+14
61.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 14 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
60.2%
Breon Allen run for 4 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
59.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Breon Allen for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 3
50
+2
60.3%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 2 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q3 7:23
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+10
62.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 10 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
61.3%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 11 yds to the SFla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
59.5%
Hairston, Chris rush for 7 yards to the SOUFLA20, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding 10 yards to the SOUFLA37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:13
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+13
63.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 13 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+24
41.2%
Marquez Grayson run for 24 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17INT
12 plays · 22 yds · 5:2350% → 53%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
49.8%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 22Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+7
49.6%
Mike White pass complete to Deonte Welch for 7 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+15
50.1%
Mike White pass complete to Mike McFarland for 15 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
54.7%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+19
55.1%
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 19 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
57.8%
Rodney Adams run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 36Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 11
OPP 36
-10
56.8%
Mack, Marlon rush for 1 yard to the EASTCRLINA35, PENALTY SOUFLA holding 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 21
OPP 46
-5
55.2%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the SFla 49Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 26
OWN 49
+6
54.6%
Mike White pass complete to Mike McFarland for 6 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q3 0:13
3RD & 20
OPP 45
-10
54.7%
White, Mike pass complete to Davis, Andre for 5 yards to the EASTCRLINA40, PENALTY SOUFLA holding 10 yards to the SOUFLA45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 30
OWN 45
0
53.4%
Mike White pass intercepted Josh Hawkins return for no gain to the ECaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 3:1846% → 77%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
54.4%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+3
54.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Breon Allen for 3 yds to the ECaro 17Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+12
58.3%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 12 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
56.4%
Chris Hairston run for 10 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
54.8%
Chris Hairston run for 8 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+9
51.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 9 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
52.0%
Anthony Scott run for 9 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+20
50.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 20 yds to the SFla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
50.1%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the SFla 13Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
50.3%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+9
52.4%
Shane Carden run for 9 yds to the SFla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
23.1%
Breon Allen run for 4 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0433% → 31%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
32.5%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
32.1%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+4
31.6%
Mike White pass complete to Mike McFarland for 4 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 3
OWN 35
+6
31.0%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 50 yds , Justin Hardy returns for 6 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 3:4774% → 92%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
26.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 19 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
24.1%
Breon Allen run for 1 yd to the ECaro 41Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+5
24.8%
Shane Carden run for 5 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+8
24.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 8 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
22.3%
Breon Allen run for 4 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+10
22.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 10 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
19.2%
Marquez Grayson run for 8 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+4
18.8%
Anthony Scott run for 4 yds to the SFla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
7.7%
Anthony Scott run for 20 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1712% → 9%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
11.7%
Mike White pass incomplete to Andre DavisSimilar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
11.4%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
10.4%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
9.4%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 13 yds · 2:5492% → 95%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
8.4%
Breon Allen run for 2 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
8.4%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+9
9.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Breon Allen for 9 yds to the ECaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
8.3%
Marquez Grayson run for 4 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-10
7.9%
Carden, Shane rush for 13 yards to the EASTCRLINA48, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 16
OWN 25
+4
6.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 4 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 12
OWN 29
+4
5.3%
Breon Allen run for 4 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 8
OWN 33
+23
4.8%
Worth Gregory punt for 50 yds , Hassan Childs returns for 23 yds to the SFla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23MISSED FG
17 plays · 49 yds · 1:446% → 4%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
6.0%
Mike White pass complete to Sean Price for 5 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
6.3%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-5
5.8%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 40Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
4.5%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+10
4.0%
Mike White pass complete to Sean Price for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
50
0
4.0%
Mike White pass incomplete to Mike McFarlandSimilar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 10
50
+14
3.9%
Mike White pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 14 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
4.3%
Mike White pass incomplete to Deonte WelchSimilar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
4.2%
Mike White pass incomplete to Andre DavisSimilar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+13
3.9%
Mike White pass complete to Deonte Welch for 13 yds to the ECaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
5.4%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (12 Yards) to the ECaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
5.6%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
5.6%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
4.8%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
4.1%
Marvin Kloss 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
2.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:42
Breon Allen run for 4 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)
-29.3
TD · Q3 5:40
Marquez Grayson run for 24 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)
-21.9
TD · Q4 6:28
Anthony Scott run for 20 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)
-11.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com