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NCSU

NC State 49 at South Florida 17

USF
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:17 · Mattias Ciabatti punt for 45 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 6 yds to the NCSt 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Home team on offense−40.5Score differential−26.6Garbage-time factor−12.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9Blowout margin−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:32: Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 17 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK) — NCSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:16: Bra'Lon Cherry run for 3 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK) — NCSU win probability +6.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:44: Jaylen Samuels run for 3 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK) — NCSU win probability +7.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:20: Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Tony Creecy for 8 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK) — NCSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:28: Shadrach Thornton run for 8 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK) — NCSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 12:10USF 4th & 5 at USF 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:41NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:23USF 4th & 2 at USF 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:07USF 4th & 19 at USF 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−1.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:37USF 4th & 11 at USF 15, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:03USF 4th & 16 at USF 19, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:17USF 4th & 10 at USF 17, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:14USF 4th & 15 at USF 14, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:19USF 4th & 16 at NCSU 24, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:57NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 30, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:46NCSU 4th & 2 at USF 39, up 32
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:17NCSU 4th & 5 at USF 26, up 32
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NCSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:20NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:39USF Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:4551% → 52%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
51.1%
Marlon Mack run for 7 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
51.2%
Mike White pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 5 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
51.3%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+2
51.4%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
51.5%
Mike White pass incomplete to Marlon MackSimilar
Q1 12:10
4TH & 5
OWN 42
-3
51.5%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 43 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 2:4048% → 51%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
51.6%
Tony Creecy run for 11 yds to the NCSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
51.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
51.6%
Tony Creecy run for 5 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+32
51.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 42 yds to the SOUFLA 30 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
51.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bryan Underwood for 7 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+16
51.1%
Tony Creecy run for 16 yds to the SFla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
49.2%
Bra'Lon Cherry run for 17 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
52.1%
Mike White pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 75 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1048% → 48%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
51.8%
Jacoby Brissett run for no gain to the NCSt 26Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
51.9%
Matt Dayes run for 1 yd to the NCSt 27Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
52.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q1 7:41
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+4
52.4%
Wil Baumann punt for 53 yds , Chris Dunkley returns for 4 yds to the SFla 31 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the SFla 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0252% → 52%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
52.0%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+6
52.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 2
OWN 22
0
51.8%
Mike White pass incomplete to Sean PriceSimilar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 2
OWN 22
0
51.5%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 57 yds , TEAM returns for no gain to the NCSt 21 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NCSt Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 4:3648% → 55%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
52.1%
Shadrach Thornton run for 3 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+3
52.2%
Bo Hines run for 3 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+6
52.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 6 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
52.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
52.2%
Shadrach Thornton run for 7 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+6
51.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Shadrach Thornton for 6 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
51.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bryan UnderwoodSimilar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+11
51.6%
Jacoby Brissett run for 11 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
50.8%
Jacoby Brissett run for 10 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
50.4%
Shadrach Thornton run for 8 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 2
OPP 25
-5
50.3%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+13
50.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 13 yds to the SFla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
45.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 17 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:3747% → 47%
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
47.2%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-8
47.2%
Mike White sacked by Thomas Teal for a loss of 8 yards to the SFla 19 Mike White fumbled, recovered by NCSt Brandon Pittman , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:1455% → 61%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
45.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+11
44.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 11 yds to the SFla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
44.8%
Matt Dayes run for 5 yds to the SFla 3Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
38.8%
Bra'Lon Cherry run for 3 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:5941% → 39%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
41.1%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-4
40.3%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 23Similar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 14
OWN 23
0
39.5%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:14
4TH & 14
OWN 23
-5
39.5%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 18Similar
Q2 13:07
4TH & 19
OWN 18
0
39.4%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 53 yds · 2:4663% → 73%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
37.3%
Shadrach Thornton run for 1 yd to the NCSt 48Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+11
37.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bryan Underwood for 11 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
36.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 15 yds to the SFla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
36.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 11 yds to the SFla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
36.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the SFla 10Similar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 5
OPP 10
+6
35.7%
Shadrach Thornton run for 6 yds to the SFla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
35.4%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Nigel Harris for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 7Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
35.0%
Shadrach Thornton run for 4 yds to the SFla 3Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
26.9%
Jaylen Samuels run for 3 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · -5 yds · 2:5127% → 25%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
27.3%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
26.6%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
26.8%
Mike White pass complete to Kennard Swanson for 4 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-15
26.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Mike McFarland) to the SFla 16Similar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-6
25.7%
Mike White sacked by Monty Nelson for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 10Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 16
OWN 10
0
25.4%
Mike White pass incomplete to Deonte WelchSimilar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 16
OWN 10
+5
25.1%
Mike White run for 5 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 11
OWN 15
0
24.7%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 57 yds, downed at the NCSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12TD
13 plays · 72 yds · 4:0575% → 83%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+27
25.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 27 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
24.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+10
24.2%
Matt Dayes run for 10 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
23.4%
Matt Dayes run for 8 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+9
22.5%
Tony Creecy run for 9 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
21.8%
Tony Creecy run for 2 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
21.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+8
21.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 8 yds to the SFla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 0
OPP 8
-10
20.1%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SFla 18Similar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 0
OPP 18
0
22.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 0
OPP 18
+10
22.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 10 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q2 2:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
17.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Tony Creecy for 8 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:0225% → 14%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
25.3%
Mike White pass complete to Marlon Mack for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 23Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-7
27.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 16 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SFla Mike WhiteSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+3
13.8%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 19Similar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
13.8%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 49 yds, downed at the NCSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:4188% → 90%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
12.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 6 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-5
11.0%
NC STATE Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 33Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+5
10.1%
Shadrach Thornton run for 5 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1789% → 96%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
11.3%
Matt Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
11.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+39
9.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 39 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
8.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 5 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+1
7.9%
Matt Dayes run for 1 yd to the SFla 28Similar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+12
8.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 12 yds to the SFla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
7.2%
Jacoby Brissett run for 5 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+3
6.8%
Shadrach Thornton run for 3 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+8
3.6%
Shadrach Thornton run for 8 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:294% → 3%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
3.5%
Mike White run for no gain to the SFla 17Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
3.4%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:27
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
3.3%
Mike White pass incomplete to Deonte WelchSimilar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 10
OWN 17
+6
3.2%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 45 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 6 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 1:3097% → 98%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
3.2%
Shadrach Thornton run for 9 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+11
3.1%
Shadrach Thornton run for 11 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
2.5%
Matt Dayes run for 2 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+34
2.5%
Matt Dayes run for 34 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:562% → 2%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
1.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the SFla 19Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
1.6%
Mike White pass incomplete to Sean PriceSimilar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-5
1.6%
Mike White pass incomplete SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (-5 Yards) to the SFla 14Similar
Q3 7:14
4TH & 15
OWN 14
-4
1.6%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 56 yds , TEAM returns for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 26 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SFlaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19FG
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:512% → 1%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
1.9%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
1.8%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the NCSt 26Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+8
1.6%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Niles Clark) to the NCSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
1.7%
Mike White pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-6
1.4%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 24Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 16
OPP 24
0
1.2%
Mike White pass incomplete to Sean PriceSimilar
Q3 5:19
4TH & 16
OPP 24
+43
1.4%
Marvin Kloss 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5599% → 98%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
1.5%
Tony Creecy run for 1 yd to the NCSt 26Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
1.4%
Bryan Underwood run for 4 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
1.4%
Garrett Leatham pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q3 3:57
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
1.6%
Wil Baumann punt for 56 yds, downed at the SFla 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21INT
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:311% → 1%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+21
1.0%
Marlon Mack run for 21 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.6%
Quinton Flowers pass intercepted Jack Tocho return for no gain to the NCSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22INT TD
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:2499% → 99%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
1.1%
Shadrach Thornton run for 5 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
1.0%
Garrett Leatham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+8
1.1%
Garrett Leatham pass complete to Bo Hines for 8 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
0.9%
Matt Dayes run for 3 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+2
0.9%
Matt Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+46
0.8%
Lamar Robbins 46 Yd Interception Return (Marvin Kloss Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 4:1499% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.8%
Tony Creecy run for 8 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
0.8%
Tony Creecy run for 8 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
0.7%
Tony Creecy run for 2 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+5
0.6%
Tony Creecy run for 5 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+5
0.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Tony Creecy for 5 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
0.5%
Tony Creecy run for 1 yd to the SFla 46Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
0.5%
Tony Creecy run for no gain to the SFla 46Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+7
0.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bryan Underwood for 7 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 2
OPP 39
0
0.5%
Wil Baumann punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24INT
9 plays · 51 yds · 4:450% → 0%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
0.3%
Mike White sacked by Joe Wright for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 13Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+11
0.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 11 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+13
0.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 13 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
0.2%
Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+11
0.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 11 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
0.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+4
0.2%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
0.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Eric Dungy for 7 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 3
OPP 29
0
0.2%
Quinton Flowers pass intercepted, touchback. Josh Jones return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 56 yds · 4:52100% → 100%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
0.2%
Dakwa Nichols run for 7 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+13
0.2%
Dakwa Nichols run for 13 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
0.1%
Dakwa Nichols run for 3 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+8
0.1%
Dakwa Nichols run for 8 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
0.1%
Dakwa Nichols run for 18 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
0.1%
Ben Grazen run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 32Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 11
OPP 32
0
0.1%
Dakwa Nichols run for no gain to the SFla 32Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+6
0.1%
Dakwa Nichols run for 6 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+2
0.1%
Dakwa Nichols run for 2 yds to the SFla 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:140% → 0%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
0.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Clinton JonesSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:44
Jaylen Samuels run for 3 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)
-7.7
TD · Q2 14:16
Bra'Lon Cherry run for 3 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)
-6
TD · Q2 2:20
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Tony Creecy for 8 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)
-5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com